| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27357 |
| Initiative Measures 2109, 2124 Appear Likely to Fail in Washington State, Though Many Undecided; I-2066 May Have Best Chance to Pass:
SurveyUSA's latest polling for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, and the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public shows likely voters haven't made up their mind on the ballot measures they're about to vote on, but opposition is high for two measures, while a third may or may not pass, depending on what the quarter of voters who have not yet made up their minds decide to do. On I-2109, which would repeal an excise tax on capital assets by high earners and as a result decrease pre-K-12 and higher education funding, just 27% of voters today say they will vote yes, 55% no; 18% are undecided. Support for this measure outweighs support among very conservative voters (57% to 29%), somewhat conservative voters (39% to 35%), and among Republicans (39% to 37%); elsewhere, opposition is stronger than support, including by a 66-point margin among very liberal voters (80% to 14%). Opposition to I-2124 is less strong, but still significant: 28% would vote yes on 2124, 49% no, with 23% undecided. This initiative, if passed, would require workers to elect to keep coverage under RCW 50B.04 and allow them to opt-out any time. It would decrease funding for Washington's public insurance program. 53% of very conservative voters would vote yes; support is no higher than 45% among any other group. Two-thirds of liberal voters say they will vote no; moderate voters oppose by a margin of 5:3. Support outweighs opposition on I-2066, which would repeal or prohibit regulations discouraging natural gas use and require utilities to provide natural gas to eligible customers. 44% vote yes today, 31% no; 25% are undecided. Very liberal voters are split, with 40% voting yes and 40% voting no; support otherwise outweighs opposition, albeit by small margins in some cases, among every demographic subgroup. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Washington State adults 10/09/2024 through 10/14/2024. Of the adults, 860 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 703 were identified as being likely to vote in the November 5 general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online among a representative nonprobability sample of Washington adults, selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to US Census American Community Survey targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to 2020 recalled Presidential vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington? |
| 1000 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 86% | 88% | 85% | 80% | 84% | 89% | 94% | 82% | 91% | 88% | ** | 84% | 70% | 93% | 88% | 85% | 92% | 92% | 85% | 84% | 84% | 89% | 93% | 97% | 84% | 89% | 95% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ** | 100% | 100% | 95% | 96% | 78% | 87% | 91% | 78% | 88% | 92% | 91% | 78% | 84% | 89% | 83% | 82% | 89% | 87% |
| No | 13% | 11% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 17% | 8% | 11% | ** | 15% | 30% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 15% | 11% | 5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 3% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 20% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 20% | 14% | 11% | 16% | 17% | 10% | 12% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 50% | 50% | 30% | 26% | 23% | 21% | 56% | 44% | 67% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 34% | 65% | 24% | 37% | 29% | 8% | 19% | 36% | 15% | 14% | 26% | 36% | 29% | 67% | 15% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 29% | 44% | 28% | 35% | 37% | 32% | 35% | 32% | 64% | 36% | 28% | 49% | 23% | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| 2 | The state of Washington will hold a general election for president, governor and for other contests this November. Not everyone votes in every election. Would you say you are ... ? |
| 860 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Certain Not To Vote | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| Unlikely To Vote | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 2% | ** | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Maybe 50% / 50% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 21% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 19% | 3% | 7% | ** | 15% | 22% | 28% | 18% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 7% | 16% | 11% | 2% | 9% | 16% | 7% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7% | 9% | 19% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 15% | 9% | 11% |
| Likely To Vote | 15% | 16% | 14% | 22% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 21% | 7% | 14% | ** | 17% | 23% | 5% | 20% | 12% | 22% | 8% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 25% | 12% | 11% | 19% | 19% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 26% | 35% | ** | 21% | 8% | 19% | 9% | 17% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 19% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 16% |
| 100% Certain To Vote | 67% | 66% | 68% | 48% | 53% | 81% | 90% | 50% | 86% | 72% | ** | 56% | 47% | 65% | 54% | 75% | 65% | 77% | 65% | 65% | 67% | 64% | 72% | 82% | 66% | 64% | 77% | 100% | 0% | 75% | 88% | 89% | 81% | 81% | 88% | 90% | 88% | 82% | 74% | 65% | ** | 79% | 92% | 69% | 78% | 52% | 70% | 74% | 58% | 69% | 72% | 73% | 55% | 66% | 69% | 64% | 60% | 73% | 68% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ** | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 28% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 53% | 47% | 68% | 4% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 35% | 64% | 25% | 39% | 29% | 8% | 18% | 37% | 16% | 16% | 26% | 37% | 32% | 67% | 15% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 32% | 49% | 25% | 35% | 39% | 29% | 36% | 35% | 67% | 33% | 27% | 51% | 22% | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| 3 | There are four statewide ballot initiatives that voters are expected to act on this November.
First, Initiative Measure 2109 concerns taxes. This measure would repeal an excise tax imposed on the sale or exchange of certain long-term capital assets by individuals who have annual capital gains of over $250,000. This measure would decrease funding for K-12 education, higher education, school construction, early learning and childcare. Should this measure be enacted into law? |
| 703 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 27% | 31% | 23% | 29% | 34% | 22% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 29% | ** | 18% | 5% | 39% | 33% | 24% | 39% | 20% | 30% | 57% | 39% | 25% | 24% | 14% | 44% | 25% | 18% | 27% | 29% | 39% | 21% | 19% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 38% | 23% | 34% | 36% | ** | 26% | 22% | 41% | 19% | 32% | 20% | 31% | 24% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 27% | 25% | 29% | 27% | 27% | 22% | 31% |
| No | 55% | 54% | 55% | 45% | 51% | 62% | 58% | 48% | 60% | 55% | ** | 62% | 46% | 49% | 50% | 57% | 37% | 68% | 52% | 29% | 35% | 54% | 69% | 80% | 33% | 54% | 75% | 57% | 43% | 35% | 67% | 71% | 35% | 35% | 68% | 81% | 32% | 63% | 45% | 36% | ** | 58% | 69% | 36% | 69% | 43% | 61% | 55% | 54% | 57% | 53% | 55% | 53% | 51% | 55% | 58% | 61% | 58% | 49% |
| Undecided | 18% | 15% | 22% | 25% | 15% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 17% | 17% | ** | 20% | 49% | 12% | 18% | 19% | 25% | 12% | 18% | 15% | 27% | 21% | 7% | 6% | 23% | 21% | 7% | 16% | 28% | 26% | 12% | 10% | 25% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 30% | 14% | 21% | 28% | ** | 16% | 9% | 23% | 12% | 25% | 20% | 14% | 22% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 24% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 20% | 21% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 72% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 31% | 68% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 8% | 19% | 36% | 16% | 18% | 27% | 36% | 34% | 82% | 18% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 34% | 53% | 21% | 37% | 42% | 27% | 37% | 36% | 71% | 29% | 26% | 51% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| 4 | Next, Initiative Measure No. 2124 concerns state long term care insurance.
This measure would provide that employees and self-employed people must elect to keep coverage under RCW 50B.04 and could opt-out any time. It would also repeal a law governing an exemption for employees. This measure would decrease funding for Washington's public insurance program providing long-term care benefits and services. Should this measure be enacted into law? |
| 703 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 28% | 31% | 25% | 26% | 33% | 31% | 23% | 29% | 27% | 27% | ** | 33% | 42% | 20% | 38% | 23% | 38% | 22% | 30% | 53% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 18% | 45% | 28% | 17% | 27% | 33% | 38% | 23% | 22% | 41% | 42% | 22% | 24% | 38% | 34% | 32% | 38% | ** | 9% | 22% | 35% | 24% | 32% | 20% | 33% | 22% | 27% | 33% | 29% | 26% | 20% | 34% | 23% | 31% | 18% | 32% |
| No | 49% | 49% | 48% | 40% | 48% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 53% | 48% | ** | 49% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 53% | 33% | 64% | 43% | 29% | 31% | 47% | 65% | 68% | 30% | 47% | 67% | 51% | 36% | 36% | 58% | 62% | 36% | 36% | 58% | 60% | 37% | 56% | 40% | 29% | ** | 70% | 62% | 38% | 58% | 45% | 54% | 47% | 50% | 50% | 47% | 50% | 47% | 56% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 54% | 47% |
| Undecided | 23% | 20% | 27% | 34% | 20% | 19% | 21% | 27% | 20% | 25% | ** | 18% | 25% | 21% | 20% | 25% | 29% | 14% | 27% | 18% | 27% | 25% | 19% | 14% | 24% | 25% | 16% | 22% | 31% | 27% | 19% | 16% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 17% | 25% | 10% | 28% | 33% | ** | 22% | 16% | 26% | 18% | 23% | 27% | 21% | 28% | 23% | 20% | 22% | 27% | 23% | 20% | 32% | 22% | 28% | 21% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 72% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 31% | 68% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 8% | 19% | 36% | 16% | 18% | 27% | 36% | 34% | 82% | 18% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 34% | 53% | 21% | 37% | 42% | 27% | 37% | 36% | 71% | 29% | 26% | 51% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| 5 | Next, Initiative Measure No. 2066 concerns regulating energy services, including natural gas and electrification.
This measure would repeal or prohibit certain laws and regulations that discourage natural gas use and/or promote electrification, and require certain utilities and local governments to provide natural gas to eligible customers. Should this measure be enacted into law? |
| 703 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 44% | 50% | 38% | 38% | 49% | 48% | 42% | 43% | 45% | 41% | ** | 48% | 22% | 77% | 49% | 42% | 49% | 40% | 47% | 73% | 52% | 40% | 44% | 40% | 58% | 40% | 42% | 45% | 39% | 53% | 40% | 39% | 54% | 59% | 39% | 34% | 60% | 48% | 43% | 45% | ** | 48% | 40% | 53% | 40% | 38% | 50% | 42% | 41% | 39% | 52% | 47% | 38% | 42% | 44% | 48% | 42% | 42% | 47% |
| No | 31% | 31% | 31% | 24% | 32% | 30% | 38% | 28% | 34% | 33% | ** | 30% | 20% | 19% | 27% | 33% | 26% | 36% | 31% | 17% | 22% | 31% | 41% | 40% | 21% | 31% | 40% | 32% | 29% | 26% | 36% | 38% | 26% | 23% | 38% | 43% | 20% | 19% | 31% | 24% | ** | 34% | 45% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 30% | 34% | 30% | 35% | 27% | 30% | 34% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 38% | 34% | 25% |
| Undecided | 25% | 19% | 31% | 38% | 20% | 21% | 21% | 29% | 21% | 26% | ** | 23% | 57% | 4% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 10% | 26% | 30% | 15% | 20% | 21% | 30% | 18% | 23% | 32% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 32% | 25% | 31% | ** | 18% | 15% | 22% | 24% | 34% | 20% | 24% | 29% | 25% | 21% | 23% | 29% | 28% | 25% | 20% | 21% | 24% | 28% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 72% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 31% | 68% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 8% | 19% | 36% | 16% | 18% | 27% | 36% | 34% | 82% | 18% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 34% | 53% | 21% | 37% | 42% | 27% | 37% | 36% | 71% | 29% | 26% | 51% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 44% |