| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13817 |
| Oregon U.S. Senate Primary: Merkley Support Nearly Triples, Now Tied with Novick -- In a Democratic Primary in Oregon for United States Senate today, 05/01/2008, three weeks till votes are counted, attorney Steve Novick and state House Speaker Jeff Merkley tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV Portland. Novick today gets 30%, Merkley 28%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error. 4 other candidates in single digits. 26% of voters say they are undecided, or will vote for some other unnamed candidate. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 04/07/08, Novick is up 7 points, Merkley is up 16 points. Among women, Merkley's support has tripled and he now leads Novick 30% to 25%. Among men, Novick is up 7, Merkley is up 8. Among Pro-Life voters, Merkely's support has quadrupled. Among voters age 50+, Merkley had trailed Novick by 12, now tied. As evidence of how closely matched and fiercely fought the contest now is: Among Conservatives, the two are tied. Among Moderates, the two are tied. Among Liberals, the two are tied. |
| Filtering: 1,800 state of Oregon adults were interviewed 04/28/08 through 04/30/08. Of them, 1,606 were registered to vote. Of them, 650 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/08 Democratic Primary. The winner of the closed Democratic primary will face incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in November. All voting is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08. |
 | If the Democratic Primary ... for United States Senator from Oregon ... were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Pavel Goberman? David Loera? Jeff Merkley? Candy Neville? Steve Novick? Roger Obrist? Or some other Democrat? |
| 650 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Ideology | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Change Your Mind | Top Issue For Next President | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Hispanic | Asian | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Could Ch | Mind Mad | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Social S | Educatio | Immigrat | Portland | Rest of | |
| Goberman | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 3% | 1% |
| Loera | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | ** | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Merkley | 28% | 26% | 30% | 11% | 28% | 29% | 37% | 23% | 32% | 20% | 40% | 30% | 29% | ** | 21% | 31% | 29% | 26% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 32% | 27% | 30% | 28% | 32% | 23% | 31% | 28% | ** | ** | ** | 31% | 30% | 24% |
| Neville | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 8% | ** | 11% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 6% | ** | ** | ** | 12% | 9% | 7% |
| Novick | 30% | 36% | 25% | 35% | 24% | 33% | 30% | 28% | 32% | 28% | 25% | 33% | 30% | ** | 35% | 33% | 28% | 34% | 28% | 29% | 32% | 25% | 31% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 38% | 31% | 33% | ** | ** | ** | 15% | 32% | 26% |
| Obrist | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | ** | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 6% | 4% | 4% |
| Other / Undecided | 26% | 21% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 23% | 19% | 31% | 21% | 32% | 21% | 23% | 26% | ** | 22% | 19% | 24% | 27% | 23% | 23% | 28% | 22% | 26% | 28% | 24% | 21% | 29% | 23% | 26% | ** | ** | ** | 36% | 22% | 34% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 15% | 31% | 31% | 23% | 46% | 54% | 38% | 14% | 49% | 90% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 39% | 39% | 25% | 25% | 50% | 17% | 81% | 24% | 74% | 36% | 9% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 69% | 31% |