| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15274 |
| One Month From California Special Election, Opposition Grows to 5 of 6 Ballot Measures:
As early voting begins on six state of California ballot propositions, opposition is growing to 5 of the 6 measures, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Because turnout in a special election is typically low, and because voters do not focus until the last minute, many 'likely voters' interviewed by SurveyUSA say they are not yet certain how they will vote on the measures. Any outcome remains possible.
On Proposition 1A, The Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, 42% of voters today are certain to vote 'No'; 29% are certain to vote 'Yes.' Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 6 weeks ago, support is flat, opposition is up, particularly among men and Independents. Opposition to 1A is strongest among Republicans and Conservatives, majorities of whom also oppose Propositions 1B, 1C, and 1D. Opposition to 1A also reaches 50% in greater Los Angeles. Support for 1A does not exceed 36% in any region or demographic group. Nearly 1 in 3 voters are not yet certain how they will vote on 1A. On Proposition 1B, The Education Funding Payment Plan, support is flat, but opposition is up 12 points from an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 6 weeks ago. Today, 42% are certain to vote 'Yes,' 37% are certain to vote 'No,' 22% are not yet certain. Among voters age 50 to 64, who are some of the most reliable voters, 1B had led by 13, now trails by 14, a 27-point swing. In the Inland Empire, 1B had led by 9, now trains by 27, a 36-point swing. On Proposition 1C, The Lottery Modernization Act, opposition has grown over the past six weeks and 1C is defeated today by almost 2:1. One in three votes are not yet certain how they will vote on 1C. Proposition 1D, on Childrens Services Funding, was the sole initiative with notable support six weeks ago. Then, the measure was ahead by 12 points; today, it trails by 2 points, with 1 in 4 voters undecided. Among men, the measure had been favored by 4 points, but today is opposed by 12 points, a 16-point swing against. In greater Los Angeles, 1D had led by 9 points, today trails by 11 points, a 20-point swing against. Any outcome is possible on 1D, but momentum at this hour is against. On Proposition 1E, on Mental Health Funding, opposition is up, one in four voters not yet certain how they will vote. Among voters age 50 to 64, Prop 1E had led by 12, now trails by 15, a 27-point swing against. Whites had supported 1E by 5, now oppose by 11, a 16-point swing against. On Proposition 1F, on Elected Officials' Salaries, there is little movement from SurveyUSA's last tracking poll. The measure remains a jump ball, 34% today certain to vote 'No,' 32% certain to vote 'Yes,' and 33% not yet certain. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,300 California adults 04/20/09 and 04/21/09. Of the adults, 1,075 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 558 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 05/19/09 special election. Early voting began 4/20; 15% tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballots. Polling on ballot measures is an imprecise science. What wording is read to the respondent by pollsters greatly influences how respondents answer. Turnout in special elections is typically low. For this reason, today's numbers are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, an indication of what will happen when all votes are counted. Late advertising can and will torque voter attitudes. |
 | On Proposition 1A, the Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1A, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 558 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 29% | 31% | 28% | 26% | 30% | 27% | 33% | 29% | 30% | 32% | 27% | 29% | 20% | 23% | 36% | 23% | 18% | 35% | 38% | 38% | 23% | 23% | 36% | 26% | 30% |
| Certain No | 42% | 47% | 37% | 37% | 48% | 45% | 34% | 44% | 40% | 41% | 44% | 43% | 45% | 54% | 31% | 46% | 57% | 40% | 26% | 33% | 50% | 52% | 31% | 40% | 42% |
| Not Certain | 29% | 22% | 36% | 38% | 22% | 28% | 33% | 27% | 30% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 35% | 23% | 32% | 31% | 25% | 25% | 37% | 29% | 27% | 25% | 33% | 35% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 44% | 56% | 61% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 18% | 34% | 39% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 16% | 25% | 15% | 85% |
 | On Proposition 1B, the Education Funding Payment Plan, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1B, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 558 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 37% | 36% | 38% | 43% | 34% | 33% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 47% | 22% | 22% | 51% | 28% | 22% | 40% | 54% | 41% | 35% | 26% | 43% | 48% | 35% |
| Certain No | 42% | 49% | 34% | 29% | 49% | 47% | 33% | 43% | 41% | 40% | 42% | 43% | 49% | 58% | 26% | 51% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 37% | 48% | 53% | 29% | 32% | 44% |
| Not Certain | 22% | 16% | 28% | 28% | 16% | 20% | 26% | 20% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 11% | 29% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 20% | 22% | 21% | 18% | 21% | 28% | 20% | 22% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 44% | 56% | 61% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 18% | 34% | 39% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 16% | 25% | 15% | 85% |
 | On Proposition 1C, the Lottery Modernization Act, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1C, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 558 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 23% | 25% | 21% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 28% | 21% | 25% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 20% | 15% | 30% | 21% | 15% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 16% | 25% | 31% | 24% | 23% |
| Certain No | 41% | 49% | 33% | 39% | 47% | 43% | 34% | 45% | 39% | 42% | 47% | 34% | 43% | 53% | 34% | 40% | 50% | 41% | 32% | 36% | 47% | 49% | 32% | 40% | 42% |
| Not Certain | 35% | 26% | 46% | 43% | 31% | 34% | 38% | 35% | 36% | 34% | 22% | 44% | 37% | 32% | 36% | 40% | 35% | 31% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 26% | 37% | 37% | 35% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 44% | 56% | 61% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 18% | 34% | 39% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 16% | 25% | 15% | 85% |
 | On Proposition 1D, on Childrens Services Funding, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1D, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 558 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 37% | 34% | 40% | 40% | 33% | 35% | 42% | 36% | 38% | 33% | 47% | 53% | 26% | 22% | 48% | 36% | 24% | 40% | 52% | 40% | 32% | 39% | 42% | 58% | 33% |
| Certain No | 39% | 46% | 30% | 33% | 44% | 44% | 28% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 31% | 32% | 46% | 53% | 27% | 41% | 54% | 36% | 25% | 37% | 43% | 41% | 30% | 32% | 40% |
| Not Certain | 24% | 20% | 29% | 26% | 23% | 21% | 30% | 24% | 25% | 27% | 23% | 15% | 28% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 23% | 23% | 25% | 20% | 28% | 10% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 44% | 56% | 61% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 18% | 34% | 39% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 16% | 25% | 15% | 85% |
 | On Proposition 1E, on Mental Health Funding, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1E, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 558 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 32% | 31% | 34% | 33% | 30% | 29% | 39% | 31% | 33% | 31% | 45% | 37% | 23% | 18% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 36% | 42% | 33% | 31% | 28% | 37% | 44% | 30% |
| Certain No | 41% | 49% | 32% | 39% | 49% | 44% | 27% | 46% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 37% | 44% | 57% | 28% | 45% | 57% | 38% | 26% | 37% | 45% | 47% | 35% | 33% | 42% |
| Not Certain | 27% | 19% | 34% | 27% | 20% | 27% | 34% | 23% | 30% | 27% | 16% | 26% | 33% | 25% | 28% | 24% | 23% | 26% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 25% | 28% | 22% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 44% | 56% | 61% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 18% | 34% | 39% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 16% | 25% | 15% | 85% |
 | On Proposition 1F, on Elected Officials' Salaries, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1F, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 558 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 32% | 40% | 24% | 25% | 38% | 29% | 34% | 34% | 31% | 34% | 34% | 33% | 22% | 32% | 33% | 32% | 32% | 40% | 21% | 42% | 26% | 35% | 33% | 22% | 34% |
| Certain No | 34% | 36% | 33% | 38% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 37% | 33% | 31% | 36% | 43% | 37% | 40% | 29% | 37% | 37% | 32% | 36% | 28% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 47% | 32% |
| Not Certain | 33% | 24% | 43% | 37% | 26% | 35% | 39% | 30% | 36% | 35% | 30% | 24% | 42% | 28% | 38% | 32% | 31% | 28% | 43% | 30% | 34% | 28% | 40% | 31% | 34% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 44% | 56% | 61% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 18% | 34% | 39% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 16% | 25% | 15% | 85% |