Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24099
 
YOU MUST CREDIT SPECTRUM NEWS FLORIDA IF YOU CITE OR PUBLISH THESE RESULTS IN WHOLE OR PART.
 
One Month Till Votes Are Counted in FL-15, Will Democrat Carlson Flip Republican Ross's Seat From Red to Blue? Or,
Will 1 of the 2 Republicans Positioned to Replace Ross Hold the Line for Paul Ryan's Replacement In the Next US House?


One month till the Democratic primary election in Florida's 15th Congressional District, Attorney Kristen Carlson defeats Navy veteran Andrew Learned and retired police officer Ray Pena, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 Orlando. Carlson takes 31% of the vote today, almost triple Learned and Pena, who each take 12%. 46% remain undecided, 4 weeks until votes are counted, so movement is possible and to be expected.

Carlson leads decisively among whites, blacks and Hispanics. She leads by 26 points among women, by 9 among men -- a 17-point gender gap. Learned runs most strongly among voters who say the economy is the single most important issue in determining how they will vote this year, but still trails Carlson 3:2 among those voters. Pena runs most strongly among conservatives, who make up just 1 in 10 Democratic primary voters.

In a Republican primary election today in Florida's 15th Congressional District, State House of Representatives member Ross Spano and former State House member Neil Combee outpace three others. Today, Spano takes 26% of the vote; Combee 20%. Businessman Danny Kushmer and Psychologist Ed Shoemaker each get 7%; Businessman Sean Harper takes 6%. 34% are undecided --- making Spano's advantage over Combee less definitive than it would be with just a handful of undecided voters.

Spano draws support from moderates, college graduates, the most affluent Republican primary voters and in suburban parts of the district. Combee runs strongly among the least affluent Republican primary voters, the least educated primary voters, and in urban parts of the district. The rural part of the district splits 26% for Combee, 20% for Spano. Immigration is the most important issue for Republican primary voters in Florida's 15th district; among the 36% focused on immigration, Spano leads Combee by 9 points. Among the 22% of Republican primary voters focused on the economy, Spano leads Combee by 10 points.

Filtering and Context: Florida's primary is "closed," which means that only registered Democrats may vote in the Democratic primary and only registered Republicans may vote in the Republican primary. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,800 registered Republican and Democratic voters from Florida's 15th Congressional District 07/25/18 through 07/30/18 using voter-list sample supplied by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 884 were Republicans; 916 were Democrats. 524 of the Republicans and 535 of the Democrats were determined by SurveyUSA to be certain to vote in their party's 08/28/18 primary. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (58% of likely Republican primary voters; 51% of likely Democratic primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of likely Republican primary voters; 49% of likely Democratic primary voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell-phone numbers, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview. Party registration in the district is 36% Republican, 36% Democrat. Incumbent Republican Dennis Ross, who won by 15 points in 2016, is not seeking a 5th term.

 
1If the Republican primary for US Representative from Florida's 15th Congressional District were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, which Republican would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Neil Combee? Sean Harper? Danny Kushmer? Ed Shoemaker? Or Ross Spano?
524 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicConservaModerateLiberalImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Neil Combee20%22%18%13%26%18%23%20%20%22%16%11%21%17%26%23%18%12%18%**40%19%17%33%17%20%30%17%26%22%19%
Sean Harper6%5%7%14%5%3%4%9%3%4%8%17%6%7%0%3%5%20%0%**2%8%6%13%6%4%3%9%1%8%4%
Danny Kushmer7%4%9%10%13%3%4%12%3%7%0%9%5%12%10%7%4%11%5%**3%3%11%2%7%8%6%10%0%12%3%
Ed Shoemaker7%8%6%10%13%6%2%11%4%5%15%18%7%6%25%2%10%9%18%**6%5%10%8%11%6%11%5%12%10%5%
Ross Spano26%29%23%29%15%32%27%22%30%26%35%20%25%31%9%32%28%13%32%**14%27%29%16%25%28%15%29%20%10%38%
Undecided34%31%36%24%28%38%40%26%39%36%27%25%36%26%29%33%34%36%27%**35%39%28%28%33%34%35%30%41%39%30%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%47%53%19%23%32%26%42%58%79%7%12%70%23%5%36%22%14%9%2%11%38%51%17%34%49%14%61%24%42%58%
 
2If the Democratic primary for US Representative from Florida's 15th Congressional District were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, which Democrat would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Kristen Carlson? Andrew Learned? Or Ray Pena?
535 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 6.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicConservaModerateLiberalImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Kristen Carlson31%24%36%32%25%31%35%29%33%31%32%35%32%32%31%28%30%36%27%35%23%40%26%40%35%24%32%31%30%22%39%
Andrew Learned12%15%10%13%16%12%8%14%10%12%15%6%3%9%16%6%18%15%12%12%13%7%15%10%12%16%11%12%12%12%12%
Ray Pena12%13%10%18%17%6%6%17%6%14%4%11%24%10%11%10%19%10%16%2%13%9%13%10%13%13%14%10%17%16%7%
Undecided46%49%43%38%42%50%51%40%51%43%49%48%40%49%42%56%33%39%46%51%50%44%45%40%40%46%43%47%41%50%41%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%41%59%26%21%29%24%46%54%66%17%16%10%36%50%14%22%10%23%13%14%38%48%22%46%33%20%61%18%49%51%
 
3Which one of the following issues is the single most important issue in deciding how you will vote this year? Immigration? The economy? Terrorism? National security? Education? The environment? Or some other issue?
1059 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicConservaModerateLiberalImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Immigration25%26%24%18%16%28%35%17%31%25%16%33%41%15%15%100%0%0%0%0%23%29%23%28%24%24%23%24%29%16%33%
Economy22%23%22%27%25%19%19%26%19%23%24%19%24%20%22%0%100%0%0%0%24%25%19%23%24%21%24%22%21%27%18%
Terrorism4%3%4%6%4%3%2%5%3%4%6%1%4%4%4%0%0%0%0%0%2%7%2%5%4%4%6%3%2%6%2%
National Security12%12%12%10%17%9%12%13%11%11%10%21%15%12%8%0%0%100%0%0%10%10%13%14%11%13%9%12%15%13%11%
Education16%17%15%20%23%13%9%22%11%15%25%15%4%26%24%0%0%0%100%0%15%13%18%12%17%16%17%17%14%21%12%
Environment8%9%7%6%4%10%10%5%10%9%6%4%1%14%10%0%0%0%0%100%7%7%9%8%8%8%5%9%7%4%11%
Other11%9%12%11%7%15%9%9%12%11%11%6%9%8%15%0%0%0%0%0%15%7%12%8%10%12%14%10%8%9%11%
Not Sure3%2%4%2%4%3%4%3%3%4%3%1%4%2%2%0%0%0%0%0%5%1%4%3%3%3%2%3%5%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%44%56%22%22%31%25%44%56%73%12%14%40%30%28%25%22%12%16%8%13%38%49%20%40%41%17%61%21%46%54%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.