Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9401
Turnout Will Decide CA 50 Special Election: In a special election in California's 50th Congressional District today, 6/2/06, 96 hours till polls open, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby are locked in a fierce firefight that could go either way, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 448 Likely Voters, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. 4 days until the 6/6/06 Special Election, Republican Bilbray gets 47%, Democrat Busby gets 45%. Bilbray's 2-point advantage is within the poll's margin of sampling error. Voter turnout will decide whether this critical House seat remains in Republican hands, or becomes a Democrat pick-up. Since an identical SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll released 5/10/06, Bilbray is up 2 points, from 45% to 47%; Busby is unchanged. Bilbray wins 6:1 among Republicans. Busby wins 9:1 among Democrats. Among Independents, Busby had led by 35 points, now leads by 25 points. Bilbray's support among Independents is up from 19% to 31% in past 3 weeks. SurveyUSA's turnout model assumes 49% of Likely Voters are Republican, 34% of likely voters are Democrat, and 17% are Independent. Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray. By SurveyUSA's calculation, 20% of "today's" Likely Voters did not vote in the 4/11/06 Primary. Among these "new" voters, Bilbray leads by 11 points, 49% to 38%. CA's 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005. Busby won the Special Primary with 44% of the vote. Bilbray finished second with 15%, 1 point ahead of Republican Eric Roach. 73% of Republican Roach's voters now support Republican Bilbray.
Filtering: 900 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District, identified using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 5/30/06 - 6/1/06. Of them, 448 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Special Election voters.
If the Special Election for Congress were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Bilbray? Democrat Francine Busby? Or some other candidate?
448 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyVoted in 4/11 PrimaryEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDid Not BilbrayBusbyRoachSomeone No ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Bilbray (R)47%49%44%35%46%47%52%46%**53%34%77%9%31%81%35%5%49%97%1%73%59%**54%48%39%45%45%45%
Busby (D)45%44%45%55%44%46%38%44%**45%52%13%85%56%8%57%89%38%2%97%3%17%**36%44%53%47%42%48%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%11%30%36%22%85%3%7%5%49%34%17%39%37%21%20%21%35%12%12%5%28%26%41%12%32%44%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.