| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26848 |
| 14 Months From NM-02 Congressional Rematch, Republican Yvette Herrell And Democrat Gabe Vasquez Again Poised to See Closest of Contests:
Democrat Gabe Vasquez defeated one-term Republican Yvette Herrell by just 1,350 votes in the 2022 election for United States House of Representatives in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District ... and SurveyUSA's first polling on the 2024 election rematch between the same two candidates indicates, at least at this early date, that little has changed for voters here. SurveyUSA's exclusive polling for KOB 4 in Albuquerque today shows a dead heat, 46% to 45%, with Herrell the nominal single point atop Vasquez, and 9% of likely voters saying they are undecided. Each candidate has effectively identical net favorability ratings, with Herrell at +6 (38% favorable, 32% unfavorable) and Vasquez at +5 (33% favorable, 28% unfavorable). Among men, Herrell leads by 13 points; among women, Vasquez leads by 9, a 22-point gender gap. White voters back the Republican by an 11-point margin; non-white voters support Vasquez by 7. Herrell is up by 12 points among likely voters with high school educations and by 7 among those who have some college; Vasquez leads by 11 among those with 4-year college degrees. Regionally, Vasquez leads by 12 points in urban parts of the district and has a very slight 3-point edge in the suburbs; Herrell leads by 18 points in the rural plurality of the district. |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed a total of 800 adults from New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District 09/06/23 through 09/12/23. Of the adults, 636 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 541 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November 2024 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (41% of adults, 49% of registered voters, and 54% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using telephone sample of registered voters purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Respondents unreachable on a landline telephone (59% of adults, 51% of registered voters, and 46% of likely voters) were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop or tablet, using online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, home ownership, and education. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of New Mexico? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely? | House Vote | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 POTUS | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Latino / | Almost C | Absolute | Herrell | Vasquez | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Web | Landline | |
| Yes | 80% | 79% | 80% | 62% | 69% | 86% | 96% | 65% | 91% | 80% | 79% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 72% | 83% | 90% | 91% | 74% | 93% | 90% | 79% | 78% | 81% | 92% | 79% | 79% | 94% | 94% | 68% | 82% | 93% | 68% | 85% | 93% | 87% | 62% | 83% | 77% | 77% | 69% | 95% |
| No | 18% | 18% | 19% | 33% | 28% | 14% | 3% | 31% | 8% | 18% | 19% | - | - | - | - | 25% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 24% | 7% | 10% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 8% | 18% | 20% | 6% | 5% | 28% | 16% | 7% | 29% | 13% | 5% | 12% | 33% | 17% | 19% | 21% | 28% | 5% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | - | - | - | - | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 21% | 27% | 28% | 44% | 56% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 67% | 46% | 45% | 25% | 72% | 31% | 33% | 23% | 15% | 17% | 37% | 11% | 7% | 32% | 37% | 18% | 33% | 35% | 41% | 30% | 29% | 45% | 35% | 20% | 70% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 37% | 59% | 41% |
| 2 | New Mexico will hold an election for President, United States Senate, and for US House of Representatives in November 2024. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? Are you not interested and will not vote? Are you not sure whether or not you will have time to vote? Are you almost certain you'll find time to vote? Or are you absolutely certain you will vote? |
| 636 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely? | House Vote | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 POTUS | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Latino / | Almost C | Absolute | Herrell | Vasquez | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Web | Landline | |
| Not Interested / Will Not Vote | 4% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 0% | - | - | 6% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 2% |
| Not Sure Will Have Time | 7% | 5% | 8% | 21% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 0% | 0% | - | - | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 1% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 2% |
| Almost Certain | 18% | 18% | 18% | 33% | 25% | 14% | 9% | 29% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 100% | 0% | 19% | 17% | 24% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 22% | 12% | 15% | 23% | 19% | 8% | 14% | 23% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 22% | 11% | 19% | 20% | 11% | 16% | 24% | 16% | 24% | 14% | 26% | 10% |
| Absolutely Certain | 67% | 69% | 65% | 33% | 61% | 73% | 84% | 47% | 79% | 74% | 60% | 0% | 100% | 81% | 83% | 54% | 71% | 74% | 72% | 59% | 84% | 74% | 57% | 74% | 85% | 79% | 57% | 78% | 78% | 73% | 54% | 66% | 82% | 54% | 70% | 85% | 72% | 52% | 64% | 66% | 73% | 52% | 83% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 0% | 0% | - | - | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 18% | 30% | 34% | 36% | 64% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 67% | 46% | 45% | 23% | 76% | 35% | 38% | 21% | 17% | 20% | 37% | 11% | 7% | 37% | 37% | 18% | 39% | 41% | 35% | 31% | 34% | 39% | 37% | 24% | 77% | 23% | 31% | 30% | 36% | 51% | 49% |
| 3 | If the election for US House of Representatives in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Yvette Herrell? Or Democrat Gabe Vasquez? |
| 541 Likey Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely? | House Vote | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 POTUS | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Latino / | Almost C | Absolute | Herrell | Vasquez | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Web | Landline | |
| Republican Yvette Herrell | 46% | 53% | 40% | 39% | 41% | 52% | 47% | 40% | 50% | 51% | 42% | 41% | 48% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 45% | 91% | 12% | 33% | 83% | 72% | 34% | 10% | 6% | 78% | 34% | 9% | 88% | 6% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 43% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 38% | 40% | 41% | 57% | 39% | 53% |
| Democrat Gabe Vasquez | 45% | 40% | 49% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 51% | 41% | 46% | 40% | 49% | 35% | 47% | 0% | 100% | 35% | 48% | 7% | 82% | 44% | 12% | 24% | 53% | 83% | 88% | 18% | 53% | 85% | 6% | 88% | 39% | 41% | 52% | 45% | 45% | 44% | 45% | 44% | 52% | 44% | 39% | 44% | 46% |
| Undecided | 9% | 7% | 11% | 19% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 19% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 23% | 4% | 4% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 18% | 8% | 15% | 5% | 18% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likey Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 18% | 30% | 37% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 79% | 46% | 45% | 21% | 78% | 38% | 39% | 20% | 19% | 21% | 35% | 12% | 7% | 40% | 35% | 19% | 44% | 44% | 30% | 32% | 37% | 34% | 40% | 27% | 79% | 21% | 29% | 31% | 37% | 46% | 54% |
| 4 | Is your opinion of Yvette Herrell ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Yvette Herrell? |
| 541 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely? | House Vote | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 POTUS | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Latino / | Almost C | Absolute | Herrell | Vasquez | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Web | Landline | |
| Favorable | 38% | 44% | 31% | 28% | 25% | 47% | 40% | 26% | 43% | 42% | 33% | 18% | 43% | 74% | 7% | 32% | 39% | 68% | 17% | 24% | 72% | 62% | 22% | 16% | 9% | 67% | 22% | 13% | 69% | 9% | 44% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 40% | 43% | 40% | 26% | 34% | 32% | 45% | 28% | 46% |
| Unfavorable | 32% | 29% | 35% | 18% | 27% | 32% | 40% | 23% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 21% | 35% | 3% | 65% | 18% | 36% | 6% | 56% | 35% | 12% | 11% | 37% | 63% | 65% | 12% | 37% | 63% | 6% | 62% | 20% | 28% | 45% | 32% | 31% | 35% | 35% | 23% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 36% |
| Neutral | 23% | 23% | 22% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 18% | 37% | 16% | 19% | 26% | 45% | 17% | 21% | 20% | 36% | 19% | 21% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 20% | 35% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 20% | 21% | 26% | 31% | 13% | 30% | 22% | 15% | 19% | 38% | 30% | 25% | 16% | 32% | 15% |
| No Opinion | 8% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 18% | 30% | 37% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 79% | 46% | 45% | 21% | 78% | 38% | 39% | 20% | 19% | 21% | 35% | 12% | 7% | 40% | 35% | 19% | 44% | 44% | 30% | 32% | 37% | 34% | 40% | 27% | 79% | 21% | 29% | 31% | 37% | 46% | 54% |
| 5 | What is your opinion of Gabe Vasquez? |
| 541 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely? | House Vote | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 POTUS | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Latino / | Almost C | Absolute | Herrell | Vasquez | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Web | Landline | |
| Favorable | 33% | 32% | 34% | 28% | 27% | 33% | 39% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 34% | 24% | 36% | 2% | 72% | 26% | 36% | 7% | 63% | 28% | 10% | 19% | 40% | 62% | 63% | 15% | 40% | 63% | 5% | 68% | 31% | 27% | 41% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 35% | 26% | 39% | 35% | 26% | 32% | 34% |
| Unfavorable | 28% | 34% | 20% | 24% | 16% | 38% | 26% | 19% | 32% | 30% | 25% | 19% | 30% | 55% | 2% | 27% | 28% | 51% | 9% | 21% | 60% | 37% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 48% | 16% | 10% | 53% | 4% | 28% | 26% | 29% | 20% | 29% | 35% | 30% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 36% | 22% | 32% |
| Neutral | 28% | 26% | 31% | 35% | 35% | 23% | 26% | 35% | 25% | 26% | 30% | 39% | 25% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 23% | 37% | 21% | 33% | 31% | 21% | 19% | 27% | 31% | 21% | 28% | 24% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 31% | 30% | 23% | 26% | 38% | 29% | 32% | 26% | 30% | 27% |
| No Opinion | 11% | 7% | 15% | 13% | 21% | 6% | 9% | 18% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 18% | 9% | 14% | 1% | 19% | 8% | 14% | 5% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 14% | 3% | 14% | 15% | 5% | 16% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 19% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 18% | 30% | 37% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 79% | 46% | 45% | 21% | 78% | 38% | 39% | 20% | 19% | 21% | 35% | 12% | 7% | 40% | 35% | 19% | 44% | 44% | 30% | 32% | 37% | 34% | 40% | 27% | 79% | 21% | 29% | 31% | 37% | 46% | 54% |