Buoyed by new TV commercials that began airing as the interviews were being conducted for this survey, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes has caught and possibly overtaken incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell in the hold-your-breath election for U.S. Senator from Kentucky. Today it's Grimes 46%, McConnell 44%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error, but far different from the 4-point lead that McConnell held in the last Bluegrass Poll released 08/28/14. Back then, in research conducted identically for the Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV, it looked like McConnell might pull away from Grimes. Today, McConnell suddenly and unexpectedly looks wobbly.

Poll-on-poll, McConnell had led by 27 points in Eastern KY, now leads by 11 (a 16-point swing to Grimes). McConnell had led by 23 points in Western KY, now leads by 15 (an 8-point swing to Grimes). In greater Louisville, Grimes had led by 7, now leads by 16 (a 9-point swing in her favor). Poll-on-poll, McConnell's support is stable among Republicans. But among Democrats, Grimes has gone from a 42-point advantage to a 51-point advantage. Among conservatives, McConnell had led by 64 points, now leads by 53 points. McConnell had led, as Republicans typically do, among voters with some college education. But today he trails by 9, a 14-point swing to Grimes. Among middle-income KY voters, McConnell had led by 4, now trails by 4, an 8-point left turn.

The contest is far from over. McConnell can take comfort in knowing that he maintains the support of voters age 50+, whom, in a mid-term election, are the most likely to turn out. And McConnell's team knows that the sudden tailwind created for Grimes by national Democratic dollars may not last. But McConnell has to worry when he reads that 57% of likely voters --- including 33% of conservatives and 27% of Republicans --- say "it's time" for him to be replaced by someone else. A smaller number --- 49% --- agree that Grimes "will simply vote for President Obama's agenda and Kentucky needs someone who can stand up to the President." Compared to August, Grimes's favorability numbers have not improved, and McConnell's have not gotten materially worse. And, the move to Grimes in recent days is not accompanied by a larger, new-found love for Democrats. When KY voters are asked which party would better control the Senate in the next Congress, Republicans are preferred, just as they were in the July Bluegrass Poll and in the August Bluegrass Poll. And Barack Obama's job approval is a flat-line, at or about 29%, going back to May 2014.

Kentuckians by nearly 2:1 disapprove of the way that President Obama is handling foreign policy. KY overwhelmingly supports airstrikes against ISIS, but is split on whether ground troops should be dispatched. Kentucky says that the Republican party is better able to respond to military conflict.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kentucky adults 09/30/14 through 10/02/14. Of the adults, 730 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 632 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. If you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part, you must credit the survey's media sponsors: WHAS-TV, WKYT-TV, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader.