| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13884 |
| California State Senate District 3: Carole Migden Defeated 2:1 in Primary Challenge -- In a Democratic Primary today in California's 3rd State Senate District, 18 days until votes are counted, incumbent Senator Carole Migden is defeated in her bid to keep her party's nomination, according to this exclusive KPIX-TV pre-primary poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, Mark Leno, assemblyman from California's 13th assembly district, gets 42% of the vote; Joe Nation, assemblyman from CA's 6th district, gets 22%; Migden finishes effectively tied with Nation, at 21%. Leno leads in almost every demographic sub-population. The winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win the November general election in this heavily Democratic district. |
| Favorability Numbers: Carole Migden has a Net Favorability rating of Minus 17 (17% favorable, 34% unfavorable, 49% neutral or unfamiliar). Mark Leno has a Net Favorability rating of Plus 18 (34% favorable, 16% unfavorable, 51% neutral or unfamiliar). Joe Nation has a Net Favorability rating of Plus 8 (23% favorable, 15% unfavorable, 61% neutral of unfamiliar). |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 registered voters from California's 3rd State Senate District using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle of Washington, DC. Of the registered voters, 516 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 06/03/08 state primary. Favorability questions were asked of all registered voters; the voting preference question was asked only of likely and actual voters. Both Democrats and voters who decline to state a party preference are eligible to vote in the primary. |
| 1 | Is your opinion of Carole Migden ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Carole Migden? |
| 1000 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party | Ideology | |||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Actual V | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | DTS | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Favorable | 17% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 15% | 19% | 18% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 25% | 20% | 4% | 20% | 14% | 6% | 13% | 22% |
| Unfavorable | 34% | 39% | 29% | 17% | 32% | 43% | 44% | 26% | 43% | 37% | 25% | 24% | 27% | 38% | 33% | 52% | 31% | 33% | 49% | 41% | 28% |
| Neutral | 25% | 24% | 26% | 19% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 23% | 28% | 23% | 38% | 25% | 31% | 23% | 27% | 19% | 27% | 24% | 16% | 26% | 26% |
| Unfamiliar | 24% | 21% | 26% | 52% | 26% | 11% | 8% | 37% | 9% | 22% | 25% | 33% | 28% | 14% | 19% | 25% | 22% | 30% | 29% | 20% | 23% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 22% | 30% | 28% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 76% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 84% | 17% | 68% | 8% | 10% | 35% | 46% |
| 2 | Is your opinion of Mark Leno ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Mark Leno? |
| 1000 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party | Ideology | |||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Actual V | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | DTS | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Favorable | 34% | 39% | 29% | 27% | 33% | 41% | 33% | 31% | 38% | 34% | 35% | 29% | 33% | 48% | 44% | 13% | 41% | 21% | 16% | 29% | 45% |
| Unfavorable | 16% | 20% | 12% | 10% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 34% | 11% | 18% | 36% | 22% | 8% |
| Neutral | 27% | 23% | 30% | 18% | 23% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 33% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 26% | 30% | 25% | 29% | 25% |
| Unfamiliar | 24% | 18% | 29% | 46% | 25% | 14% | 10% | 34% | 12% | 23% | 20% | 25% | 31% | 13% | 20% | 26% | 22% | 30% | 23% | 19% | 23% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 22% | 30% | 28% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 76% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 84% | 17% | 68% | 8% | 10% | 35% | 46% |
| 3 | Is your opinion of Joe Nation... |
| 1000 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party | Ideology | |||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Actual V | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | DTS | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Favorable | 23% | 23% | 23% | 17% | 16% | 28% | 33% | 16% | 30% | 27% | 13% | 14% | 7% | 35% | 23% | 30% | 23% | 24% | 30% | 31% | 19% |
| Unfavorable | 15% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 19% | 18% | 12% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 24% | 15% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 16% |
| Neutral | 26% | 26% | 27% | 16% | 25% | 31% | 33% | 21% | 32% | 26% | 29% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 27% | 19% | 21% | 28% | 26% |
| Unfamiliar | 35% | 32% | 38% | 57% | 45% | 21% | 16% | 50% | 19% | 31% | 45% | 42% | 54% | 16% | 35% | 28% | 36% | 44% | 32% | 27% | 39% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 22% | 30% | 28% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 76% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 84% | 17% | 68% | 8% | 10% | 35% | 46% |
| 4 | If the Democratic primary for State Senate were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Carole Migden? Mark Leno? Or Joe Nation? |
| 516 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party | Ideology | |||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Actual V | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | DTS | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Migden | 21% | 17% | 25% | 19% | 23% | 19% | 24% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 26% | 15% | 27% | 27% | 20% | ** | 21% | 25% | ** | 20% | 22% |
| Leno | 42% | 48% | 35% | 38% | 45% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 42% | 53% | 38% | 38% | 42% | ** | 43% | 24% | ** | 37% | 47% |
| Nation | 22% | 21% | 22% | 14% | 18% | 26% | 28% | 16% | 27% | 24% | 14% | 20% | 8% | 26% | 21% | ** | 21% | 29% | ** | 30% | 17% |
| Undecided | 16% | 14% | 18% | 29% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 20% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 12% | 26% | 10% | 17% | ** | 15% | 22% | ** | 13% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 30% | 31% | 18% | 51% | 49% | 78% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 16% | 84% | 0% | 93% | 7% | 2% | 33% | 59% |