Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15956
CA 10 Special Election -- Garamendi Favored With Half of Votes Already Cast: In a Special Election for the US House of Representatives in California's 10th Congressional District today, 10/29/09, five days until votes are counted, Democrat John Garamendi defeats Republican David Harmer, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPIX-TV in San Francisco.

Garamendi, the Lieutenant Governor of California, leads among women. Harmer, a businessman and son of a former lieutenant governor, leads among church-goers and gun-owners. Three third-party candidates combine for 6%. Half of voters tell SurveyUSA they have already voted.

Filtering: 800 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/26/09 through 10/28/09, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 581 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote before the 11/03/09 deadline. The CA10 seat was vacated when sitting Democratic congresswoman Ellen Tauscher joined the Obama administration.
1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Democrat John Garamendi? Republican David Harmer? Or another candidate?
581 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCain
John Garamendi (D)50%44%55%47%47%51%51%47%51%50%48%55%47%51%49%12%77%35%13%53%82%51%47%40%50%60%21%65%37%58%49%51%80%5%
David Harmer (R)40%44%37%45%37%38%44%40%41%41%42%29%39%41%40%81%15%42%80%37%7%40%40%49%40%32%69%27%52%34%39%42%10%92%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%49%51%9%23%40%28%32%68%77%6%7%10%53%47%32%52%16%28%43%27%65%35%39%23%38%32%66%36%60%22%78%59%35%