| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27357 |
| Democrat Maria Cantwell Poised to Win Fifth Term, Leads Republican Raul Garcia by 23 Points in Washington State's US Senate Contest:
Incumbent US Senator Maria Cantwell defeats medical doctor Raul Garcia 55% to 32% in an election today, SurveyUSA's latest polling for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, and the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public shows. 13% of likely voters are undecided. Garcia leads among Republicans and conservatives, among those voting for Donald Trump for President and Dave Reichert for Governor (more on that in a moment), by a wide margin among those who say border security is the most important issue, and by a 9-point margin among those who say the cost of living is the most important issue in their votes this year. Cantwell, first elected to the Senate in 2000, leads among all other groups, and is running two points behind fellow Democrat Kamala Harris, who gets 57% of the vote for President against Donald Trump, and 5 points ahead of fellow Democrat Bob Ferguson, who gets 50% of the vote for Governor against Reichert. Cantwell keeps more of her ticket-mates' votes than Garcia does: 89% of those voting for Kamala Harris and 94% of those voting for Bob Ferguson also vote for Maria Cantwell, while 77% of Trump voters and 80% of Reichert voters stick with the Republican candidate for Senate. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Washington State adults 10/09/2024 through 10/14/2024. Of the adults, 860 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 703 were identified as being likely to vote in the November 5 general election and were asked the substantive question which follows. This research was conducted online among a representative nonprobability sample of Washington adults, selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to US Census American Community Survey targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to 2020 recalled Presidential vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington? |
| 1000 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 86% | 88% | 85% | 80% | 84% | 89% | 94% | 82% | 91% | 88% | ** | 84% | 70% | 93% | 88% | 85% | 92% | 92% | 85% | 84% | 84% | 89% | 93% | 97% | 84% | 89% | 95% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ** | 100% | 100% | 95% | 96% | 78% | 87% | 91% | 78% | 88% | 92% | 91% | 78% | 84% | 89% | 83% | 82% | 89% | 87% |
| No | 13% | 11% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 17% | 8% | 11% | ** | 15% | 30% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 15% | 11% | 5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 3% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 20% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 20% | 14% | 11% | 16% | 17% | 10% | 12% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 50% | 50% | 30% | 26% | 23% | 21% | 56% | 44% | 67% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 34% | 65% | 24% | 37% | 29% | 8% | 19% | 36% | 15% | 14% | 26% | 36% | 29% | 67% | 15% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 29% | 44% | 28% | 35% | 37% | 32% | 35% | 32% | 64% | 36% | 28% | 49% | 23% | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| 2 | The state of Washington will hold a general election for president, governor and for other contests this November. Not everyone votes in every election. Would you say you are ... ? |
| 860 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Certain Not To Vote | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| Unlikely To Vote | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 2% | ** | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Maybe 50% / 50% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 21% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 19% | 3% | 7% | ** | 15% | 22% | 28% | 18% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 7% | 16% | 11% | 2% | 9% | 16% | 7% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7% | 9% | 19% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 15% | 9% | 11% |
| Likely To Vote | 15% | 16% | 14% | 22% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 21% | 7% | 14% | ** | 17% | 23% | 5% | 20% | 12% | 22% | 8% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 25% | 12% | 11% | 19% | 19% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 26% | 35% | ** | 21% | 8% | 19% | 9% | 17% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 19% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 16% |
| 100% Certain To Vote | 67% | 66% | 68% | 48% | 53% | 81% | 90% | 50% | 86% | 72% | ** | 56% | 47% | 65% | 54% | 75% | 65% | 77% | 65% | 65% | 67% | 64% | 72% | 82% | 66% | 64% | 77% | 100% | 0% | 75% | 88% | 89% | 81% | 81% | 88% | 90% | 88% | 82% | 74% | 65% | ** | 79% | 92% | 69% | 78% | 52% | 70% | 74% | 58% | 69% | 72% | 73% | 55% | 66% | 69% | 64% | 60% | 73% | 68% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ** | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 28% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 53% | 47% | 68% | 4% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 35% | 64% | 25% | 39% | 29% | 8% | 18% | 37% | 16% | 16% | 26% | 37% | 32% | 67% | 15% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 32% | 49% | 25% | 35% | 39% | 29% | 36% | 35% | 67% | 33% | 27% | 51% | 22% | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| 3 | IIf the election for United States Senator were today, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) |
| 703 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Top Issue | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Likely | Trump | Harris | Ferguson | Reichert | Garcia | Cantwell | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Cost Of | Crime | Guns | Homeless | Protecti | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Raul Garcia (R) | 32% | 31% | 32% | 28% | 37% | 27% | 34% | 33% | 31% | 34% | ** | 26% | 29% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 76% | 2% | 32% | 82% | 70% | 26% | 10% | 4% | 73% | 26% | 7% | 31% | 34% | 77% | 3% | 4% | 80% | 100% | 0% | 2% | 80% | 7% | 48% | 27% | ** | 35% | 13% | 73% | 3% | 38% | 34% | 26% | 30% | 32% | 32% | 33% | 29% | 30% | 29% | 39% | 38% | 32% | 28% |
| Maria Cantwell (D) | 55% | 55% | 55% | 49% | 50% | 64% | 57% | 49% | 60% | 52% | ** | 67% | 56% | 63% | 53% | 57% | 12% | 95% | 45% | 9% | 20% | 55% | 84% | 95% | 17% | 55% | 90% | 60% | 35% | 9% | 89% | 94% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 91% | 7% | 88% | 39% | 37% | ** | 49% | 81% | 13% | 90% | 44% | 56% | 60% | 54% | 53% | 59% | 57% | 51% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 54% | 56% | 56% |
| Undecided | 13% | 13% | 13% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 18% | 9% | 14% | ** | 7% | 15% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 23% | 9% | 10% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 10% | 19% | 3% | 9% | 30% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 14% | 36% | ** | 16% | 6% | 13% | 7% | 17% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 16% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 72% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 31% | 68% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 8% | 19% | 36% | 16% | 18% | 27% | 36% | 34% | 82% | 18% | 35% | 57% | 50% | 34% | 32% | 55% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 34% | 53% | 21% | 37% | 42% | 27% | 37% | 36% | 71% | 29% | 26% | 51% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 44% |