Newsom leads Janice Hahn by 14 points among those who have already voted, leads Hahn by 16 points among those who have not yet voted but who tell SurveyUSA they will vote before the deadline. Newsom's support is disproportionately white, liberal, educated, affluent and from the northern half of the state.

Maldonado leads Sam Aanestad 9:5 among both those who have already voted and among those who have not yet voted. His support is older but otherwise broad based.

Many likely Primary voters are not focused on the ballot measures, resulting in a typically high number of likely voters who aren't certain how they will vote on a given referendum, and a material number of citizens who have already cast a ballot but who do not recall how they voted on a particular contest. With those limitations noted::

Proposition 13 is positioned to pass, backed by a broad coalition of republicans and democrats, conservatives moderates and liberals.

Proposition 14 is positioned to pass, backed by a broad coalition of republicans and democrats, conservative, moderates and liberals.

Proposition 15 is likely to fail, opposed by a broad spectrum of young and old, male and female,

Proposition 16 and 17 are both too close to call. 16, which trails narrowly, within the margin of sampling error and not by enough to be statistically significant, is opposed by Democrats, supported by Republicans. 17, which leads narrowly, within the margin of sampling error and not by enough to be statistically significant, is supported by the middle-aged, opposed by the young.