| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15330 |
| Opposition to CA Ballot Measures Continues to Increase, 8 Days to Special Election:
3 weeks after voting began and 8 days until voting ends on 6 state of California ballot propositions, opposition continues to grow on 5 of 6 measures, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Because turnout in any special election is difficult to predict, and because polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, these numbers should be interpreted as providing the best possible broad guidance, but not a precise measure of outcome. In all cases, poll results from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and the Field Poll are shown, for context.
On Proposition 1A, The Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, 51% of voters today are certain to vote 'No'; 38% are certain to vote 'Yes.' Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 19 days ago, both support and opposition have risen by an identical amount. The number of "not certain" voters has dropped sharply. Opposition to 1A is above 50% among men, middle-aged voters, whites, Republicans, independents, conservatives, and in regions other than the Bay Area. The measure is supported by 53% of liberals and by 50% of Democrats and blacks, but does not reach that level of support among any other group. The most recent poll by PPIC has 1A failing by 17 points. The most recent Field Poll has 1A failing by 9 points. Proposition 1B, The Education Funding Payment Plan, trailed by 5 points 19 days ago, trails by 9 points today. Today, 50% are certain to vote 'No,' 41% are certain to vote 'Yes,' 10% are not yet certain. The measure is ahead by 6 points in the Bay Area, behind by 7 in the Central Valley, and trails by double digits in the rest of the state. The most recent poll by PPIC has 1B failing by 7 points. The most recent Field Poll has 1B failing by 9 points. Proposition 1C, The Lottery Modernization Act, today fails by the largest margin of the six measures, 23 points. It trails in every region of the state. 19% of voters are not yet certain how they will vote on 1C, down from 35% in the prior release. The most recent poll by PPIC has 1C failing by 26 points. The most recent Field Poll has 1C failing by 27 points. Proposition 1D, on Children's Services Funding, led by 12 points when polling began eight weeks ago. Today, support and opposition have switched, and the measure fails by 13 points, 50% to 37%. The proposition continues to draw the support of majorities of liberals, Democrats, and blacks, but by margins that at this hour do not appear strong enough to overcome the opposition. Republicans oppose 1D by 3:1. Seniors had supported by by 20 points, now oppose the measure by 16 points, a 36-point swing. The most recent poll by PPIC has 1D failing by 2 points. The most recent Field Poll has 1D failing by 9 points. On Proposition 1E, on Mental Health Funding, opposition has risen from 9 points in the previous poll to 16 points today, with 14% of voters not yet certain how they will vote. The most recent poll by PPIC has 1E failing by 7 points. The most recent Field Poll has 1E failing by 11 points. Proposition 1F, on Elected Officials' Salaries, is the one proposition where support has increased since polling began. Both eight weeks ago and 19 day ago, opposition was very slightly ahead of support. Today, SurveyUSA finds the measure ahead by 10 points, with 45% certain to vote 'Yes,' 35% certain to vote 'No,' and 20% -- the largest in any of the six measures -- not yet certain. The most recent poll by PPIC has 1F passing by 49 points. The most recent Field Poll has 1F passing by 47 points. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,300 California adults 05/08/09 through 05/10/09. Of the adults, 1,096 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 05/19/09 special election. Early voting began 4/20; 38% tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballots. |
 | On Proposition 1A, the Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1A, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 618 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 38% | 36% | 39% | 39% | 31% | 41% | 40% | 34% | 41% | 34% | 50% | 41% | 46% | 25% | 50% | 32% | 22% | 43% | 53% | 39% | 34% | 35% | 45% | 41% | 36% |
| Certain No | 51% | 53% | 49% | 45% | 56% | 49% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 55% | 34% | 46% | 42% | 66% | 36% | 59% | 70% | 46% | 29% | 51% | 55% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 51% |
| Not Certain | 11% | 11% | 12% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 14% | 9% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 64% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 16% | 35% | 43% | 19% | 21% | 37% | 18% | 24% | 38% | 62% |
 | On Proposition 1B, the Education Funding Payment Plan, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1B, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 618 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 41% | 37% | 44% | 42% | 39% | 39% | 43% | 40% | 41% | 37% | 53% | 47% | 43% | 23% | 57% | 35% | 24% | 45% | 59% | 41% | 36% | 39% | 48% | 45% | 38% |
| Certain No | 50% | 54% | 46% | 48% | 51% | 51% | 49% | 50% | 50% | 55% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 69% | 32% | 57% | 71% | 44% | 27% | 48% | 54% | 54% | 42% | 49% | 50% |
| Not Certain | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 19% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 64% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 16% | 35% | 43% | 19% | 21% | 37% | 18% | 24% | 38% | 62% |
 | On Proposition 1C, the Lottery Modernization Act, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1C, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 618 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 29% | 32% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 35% | 28% | 25% | 32% | 25% | 31% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 42% | 23% | 21% | 31% | 39% | 27% | 26% | 31% | 36% | 35% | 25% |
| Certain No | 52% | 55% | 49% | 46% | 55% | 50% | 55% | 52% | 52% | 57% | 42% | 42% | 44% | 68% | 37% | 58% | 69% | 47% | 34% | 51% | 58% | 54% | 43% | 55% | 51% |
| Not Certain | 19% | 13% | 25% | 27% | 21% | 15% | 17% | 23% | 15% | 18% | 27% | 13% | 28% | 16% | 21% | 19% | 11% | 22% | 27% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 64% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 16% | 35% | 43% | 19% | 21% | 37% | 18% | 24% | 38% | 62% |
 | On Proposition 1D, on Childrens Services Funding, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1D, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 618 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 37% | 35% | 40% | 46% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 34% | 54% | 45% | 35% | 22% | 51% | 33% | 25% | 37% | 56% | 40% | 32% | 33% | 45% | 44% | 32% |
| Certain No | 50% | 54% | 47% | 43% | 53% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 51% | 54% | 38% | 44% | 48% | 67% | 34% | 59% | 67% | 47% | 30% | 48% | 55% | 53% | 43% | 50% | 50% |
| Not Certain | 13% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 18% | 12% | 14% | 8% | 7% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 5% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 64% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 16% | 35% | 43% | 19% | 21% | 37% | 18% | 24% | 38% | 62% |
 | On Proposition 1E, on Mental Health Funding, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1E, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 618 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 35% | 33% | 38% | 42% | 28% | 39% | 34% | 33% | 37% | 32% | 54% | 42% | 38% | 21% | 49% | 32% | 22% | 38% | 53% | 35% | 34% | 31% | 42% | 45% | 29% |
| Certain No | 51% | 55% | 46% | 41% | 59% | 48% | 51% | 52% | 49% | 53% | 38% | 49% | 44% | 64% | 37% | 58% | 68% | 45% | 32% | 48% | 56% | 57% | 41% | 48% | 52% |
| Not Certain | 14% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 8% | 9% | 18% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 17% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 13% | 17% | 6% | 19% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 64% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 16% | 35% | 43% | 19% | 21% | 37% | 18% | 24% | 38% | 62% |
 | On Proposition 1F, on Elected Officials' Salaries, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1F, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"} |
| 618 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Yes | No | |
| Certain Yes | 45% | 51% | 39% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 50% | 43% | 47% | 47% | 50% | 43% | 35% | 40% | 48% | 49% | 43% | 45% | 47% | 52% | 38% | 40% | 54% | 52% | 41% |
| Certain No | 35% | 34% | 36% | 36% | 34% | 35% | 34% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 35% | 38% | 37% | 42% | 30% | 29% | 45% | 31% | 26% | 27% | 40% | 43% | 27% | 39% | 32% |
| Not Certain | 20% | 16% | 25% | 24% | 21% | 21% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 18% | 28% | 18% | 21% | 22% | 12% | 24% | 27% | 21% | 21% | 17% | 20% | 9% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 64% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 16% | 35% | 43% | 19% | 21% | 37% | 18% | 24% | 38% | 62% |