Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26321
 
57% of Republican Primary Voters Say More Likely to Vote for a Donald Trump-Endorsed Candidate...

11 Weeks Until Missouri GOP US Senate Primary, Eric Greitens Ahead of Eric Schmitt, Vicky Hartzler, Though More Than 1 in 5 Have Not Decided;
On Democratic Side, Lucas Kunce, Trudy Busch Valentine Out in Front of 9 Other Candidates, With Nearly 2 of 3 Likely Voters Still Undecided;
Greitens, Despite His Lead in Primary, is Weaker Than Schmitt and Hartzler in Hypothetical November Matchups Against Democratic Opponents:

Former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens leads a 21-candidate field in the Republican primary to replace outgoing United States Senator for Missouri Roy Blunt, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for Gray Television's Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA) and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS.

Greitens today takes 26% of the vote; incumbent Attorney General Eric Schmitt is at 17%; incumbent US Representative Vicky Hartzler is at 11%. Another current US Representative, Billy Long, takes 7% of the vote today; each of the other 16 candidates on the ballot is at 2% or less, with 28% of likely voters undecided.

Greitens draws significant strength in Southeastern Missouri, where he takes 46% of the vote, more than 4:1 ahead of Schmitt; among "very conservative" voters, where he polls at 38%, compared to 14% for Schmitt; among voters who say the endorsement of former President Trump makes them more likely to vote for a candidate (34%); among the 21% of likely Republican primary voters who say abortion should be illegal under all circumstances (31%); and among men, among those with lower household incomes, and in rural portions of Missouri, each of which give Greitens 30% of the vote. Among those likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they are "certain" to vote in the Republican primary, Greitens leads Schmitt by 13 points, and leads Hartzler by 16 points; among those who say they will "probably" vote, Greitens and Schmitt tie with 18% for each, 11 points ahead of Hartzler.

Schmitt does better among voters who say Donald Trump's endorsement makes no difference to them, where he takes 25% of the vote; among those who say abortion should be legal with some restrictions (25%); and in suburban parts of the state (24%). Schmitt and Greitens are tied in greater St. Louis.

Hartzler, at 11% overall, takes 23% of the vote in Northern Missouri, just behind Greitens at 29%. Hartzler is also strong among the 15% of likely Republican primary voters who consider themselves to be politically independent, where she takes 19% of the vote, effectively even with Greitens at 20%.

Long significantly outpolls his overall average of 7% only in Southwestern Missouri, where the 7th Congressional District is based; Long has represented the 7th district since 2011.

In the Democratic Primary for US Senate, Marine veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce takes 10% of the vote today; registered nurse and philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine is at 8%; 9 other candidates each take 3% or less of the vote. 63% of likely voters are undecided; an undecided vote that large typically signifies that voters are not focused on this contest, and that many of those who today say they are certain to vote in the primary are doing so with a focus on other, more local contests on the ballot.

The contest should be characterized as even at this point; each candidate has advantages. Kunce leads Valentine by 11 points among voters who describe themselves as "very liberal," by 8 points in Greater Kansas City, and by 7 in rural Missouri. Valentine leads by 6 points among the 15% of likely Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as political independents, by 3 points in greater St. Louis, and by a nominal 2 points in Southwestern Missouri. Businessman Spencer Toder, at 3% overall, has 10%, leading the field, among the 1 in 10 Democratic primary voters who say they are conservatives. Kunce leads Valentine by 5 points among those who say they are certain to vote in the Democratic primary; Valentine leads by 7 among those who say they will probably vote. Among men, Valentine leads by 3; among women, Kunce leads by 6 – a 9-point gender gap. Kunce leads Valentine by 5 points among voters over age 65, typically the most reliable; the race is tied among Kunce, Valentine, and Toder with the youngest voters, typically the least reliable.

Looking ahead to the November general election for United States Senate, SurveyUSA asked likely November voters how they would vote in hypothetical matchups between the leading Republican and Democratic candidates. Republicans lead in each of the six potential races. Should Trudy Busch Valentine be the Democratic nominee ...
  • Eric Schmitt defeats Valentine by 13 points, 47% to 34%, with 19% undecided.
  • Vicky Hartzler defeats Valentine by 11 points, 44% to 33%; 23% are undecided.
  • Eric Greitens leads Valentine by 6 points, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided.
If Lucas Kunce is the nominee, a similar tale:
  • Eric Schmitt defeats Kunce by 12 points, 46% to 34%, with 19% undecided.
  • Vicky Hartzler defeats Kunce by 14 points, 45% to 31%; 24% are undecided.
  • Eric Greitens leads Kunce by 6 points, 42% to 36%, with 22% undecided.
Greitens consistently underperforms Schmitt and Hartzler among three groups:
  • Among those with household incomes more than $80K a year, 30% of the November electorate, Greitens polls an average of 16 points behind his GOP rivals. Hartzler and Schmitt lead by an average of 7.5 percentage points among these upper-income voters; Greitens trails by an average of 8.5%.
  • Among the 23% of November voters who identify as political independents, Greitens polls an average of 13 points behind Hartzler and Schmitt, who lead among independents by an average of 8.5 points; Greitens loses independents by an average of 4.5 points.
  • Among those who identify not as "very conservative," where Greitens runs only 3 points behind Hartzler and Schmitt on average, but who identify as "conservative" – 27% of the electorate – Greitens runs 11 points behind his rivals. Greitens easily defeats either Kunce or Valentine among conservative voters, of course – but by an average of 54 points, as opposed to 65 points on average for Hartzler and Schmitt.
Registered voters are, by and large, confident that votes in the August primary will be counted accurately. 70% of registered voters are confident votes will be counted accurately (34% have confidence, 36% have some confidence); 24% are not confident (17% have little confidence, 7% have none.) 57% of Democrats say they have full confidence, compared to 30% of independents and 22% of Republicans; 32% of Republicans and 29% of independents have little or no confidence, compared with 9% of Democrats.
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,175 Missouri adults online 05/11/22 through 05/15/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 1,782 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 642 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/02/22 Republican primary; 500 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/22 Democratic primary; 1,412 were determined to be likely to vote in the November 8 general election. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Missouri?
2175 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 1.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Yes82%83%81%70%79%88%91%75%90%84%82%63%92%91%77%90%92%83%87%89%91%83%88%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%94%93%83%85%85%84%87%85%74%83%92%73%87%91%89%68%79%84%81%85%79%77%86%83%
No15%13%17%24%18%10%8%21%9%14%15%25%7%8%20%9%7%15%11%11%7%15%11%-------5%5%13%13%13%14%11%14%22%14%7%23%12%7%10%27%17%13%17%14%17%20%11%15%
Not Sure3%4%2%6%2%2%1%4%1%2%3%12%1%1%3%1%1%2%2%0%1%2%1%-------1%1%4%1%2%1%2%1%3%3%2%4%2%2%2%5%4%3%1%1%4%3%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%27%25%26%22%52%48%80%11%9%34%27%27%14%22%33%11%7%36%33%17%55%21%57%7%34%59%20%43%31%26%22%29%13%47%31%42%28%30%41%35%23%67%33%20%43%37%15%22%22%29%11%
 
2Missouri will hold a primary election for United States Senate in August. Not everyone makes the time to vote in a primary. Would you say you are...?
1782 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Certain To Vote 55%57%54%41%47%59%73%44%65%57%48%54%61%62%50%76%55%50%58%70%63%50%63%100%0%78%68%75%89%9%61%63%61%53%57%61%57%64%48%52%67%47%55%67%63%36%55%56%55%56%55%56%55%54%
Will Probably Vote21%20%22%24%23%22%15%24%18%21%24%20%21%22%20%15%24%23%20%16%21%23%18%0%100%22%32%25%8%70%19%23%20%23%21%17%23%20%19%25%20%19%25%18%20%24%18%23%21%23%22%21%21%17%
50/50 Chance16%16%15%24%19%13%8%22%11%15%17%21%14%12%20%5%14%19%14%11%11%19%13%0%0%---2%16%13%11%13%16%14%15%14%11%22%15%10%22%14%10%12%26%17%14%17%16%14%17%15%17%
Probably Will Not Vote5%5%6%7%8%4%2%8%3%6%5%5%3%3%8%2%4%6%5%3%3%6%4%0%0%---1%2%4%3%5%6%5%6%5%5%7%6%3%8%3%4%4%9%5%5%7%5%6%4%5%10%
Not Sure2%1%3%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%7%0%0%3%2%2%2%2%2%0%2%2%2%0%0%---0%2%2%1%1%1%3%2%2%1%4%2%0%4%2%1%2%5%4%2%1%1%2%2%4%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%23%24%29%24%47%53%82%11%7%38%29%25%15%25%34%11%7%41%34%19%55%21%57%7%34%59%20%49%35%27%23%30%13%50%33%38%29%34%36%37%26%72%28%20%44%37%16%21%21%31%12%
 
3Will you vote in the Republican primary? Or the Democratic primary?
1362 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Republican47%50%45%38%39%53%54%39%53%52%10%40%96%2%31%90%79%27%6%2%83%27%4%49%42%100%100%100%50%40%82%6%14%38%73%74%26%78%57%45%40%45%50%46%51%32%32%41%63%55%34%60%38%63%
Democratic37%35%38%46%42%34%29%44%31%31%80%38%1%94%24%6%10%45%86%95%9%45%90%37%37%---36%37%5%78%69%39%15%17%56%11%30%36%43%42%33%36%33%50%52%41%23%31%46%26%46%19%
Not Sure16%15%17%16%19%14%17%17%15%17%10%21%3%4%46%4%11%28%9%3%8%28%6%14%22%---14%23%12%17%17%22%13%9%18%11%12%19%18%13%17%18%16%18%16%18%15%14%20%14%16%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%49%51%20%23%30%28%42%58%83%10%6%41%32%23%18%26%32%12%8%44%32%20%73%27%57%7%34%75%21%52%39%28%23%30%13%52%35%33%29%38%32%39%29%78%22%19%45%36%16%21%21%31%11%
 
4If you were filling out your ballot in the Republican Primary for United States Senate today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
642 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Bernie Mowinski0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%**1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%
Billy Long7%10%5%3%9%9%7%6%8%6%**11%8%**3%7%8%8%****7%8%**8%6%8%6%7%8%5%8%**8%6%7%8%7%7%8%9%5%7%9%5%7%7%12%4%9%5%2%21%0%3%
C.W. Gardner0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%**0%0%**2%0%0%1%****0%1%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%**0%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Curtis D. Vaughn0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%**0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Darrell Leon McClanahan III1%1%0%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%**0%1%**0%1%0%0%****1%0%**0%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%**3%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%2%3%0%0%0%1%0%1%1%
Dave Schatz2%2%2%4%2%0%2%3%1%1%**7%2%**2%2%1%4%****1%4%**2%1%2%4%1%2%1%2%**4%4%2%0%1%2%2%2%2%1%1%4%2%1%6%1%1%2%0%1%4%1%
Dave Sims1%0%1%2%2%0%0%2%0%0%**0%1%**0%0%1%0%****0%0%**0%1%1%2%0%0%1%0%**2%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%2%0%0%0%2%1%0%0%
Dennis Lee Chilton0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%**0%0%**1%0%0%1%****0%1%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%**0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%
Deshon Porter0%-----------------------------------------------------
Eric Greitens26%23%30%15%28%28%29%22%29%27%**14%28%**20%38%21%18%****29%18%**29%17%34%15%16%28%23%27%**18%21%29%31%23%29%25%27%27%30%28%20%27%22%21%23%30%29%24%17%23%46%
Eric McElroy1%2%1%6%0%1%0%3%0%1%**0%1%**0%1%1%1%****1%1%**1%1%2%0%0%1%0%1%**0%1%2%1%1%1%2%0%1%3%0%0%1%1%0%2%0%0%1%3%1%0%
Eric Schmitt17%18%15%15%16%14%20%16%17%17%**17%17%**14%14%18%18%****16%18%**16%18%11%22%25%17%17%16%**15%25%16%13%19%18%15%14%21%15%14%23%17%13%12%24%11%16%19%12%23%11%
Hartford Tunnell0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%**1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%
Kevin C. Schepers1%0%2%1%3%0%0%2%0%1%**7%1%**0%1%0%2%****1%2%**0%2%1%0%0%0%2%1%**0%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%5%1%0%0%3%1%0%0%
Mark McCloskey2%2%2%2%3%1%3%3%2%2%**0%3%**0%3%2%1%****3%1%**3%1%2%0%3%3%1%2%**3%1%2%2%1%2%3%1%2%0%1%6%3%0%1%2%3%0%2%0%7%0%
Patrick A Lewis1%1%1%2%0%0%0%1%0%1%**0%0%**2%0%0%1%****0%1%**1%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%**3%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%3%1%0%0%1%1%1%0%
Rickey Joiner1%1%1%1%2%1%0%1%0%1%**1%1%**1%0%1%1%****0%1%**1%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%**3%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%2%
Robert Allen1%1%0%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%**0%1%**0%1%0%1%****0%1%**1%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%**0%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%
Robert Olson0%1%0%2%0%0%0%1%0%0%**0%0%**1%1%0%1%****0%1%**0%1%1%2%0%0%1%0%**0%0%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%
Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%1%****0%1%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%**0%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%
Vicky Hartzler11%13%9%5%6%14%15%5%15%11%**13%10%**19%6%18%7%****13%7%**11%12%8%13%18%12%8%11%**18%9%13%10%12%12%11%11%13%10%11%13%11%11%9%8%14%23%13%11%5%6%
Undecided28%25%31%37%25%30%23%30%27%28%**29%26%**35%24%27%33%****26%33%**25%37%26%36%26%26%36%28%**21%29%24%32%27%25%30%29%24%30%28%26%27%35%23%29%29%21%30%30%31%26%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%52%48%16%19%34%32%34%66%92%2%5%83%1%15%35%44%18%1%0%79%18%2%76%24%57%7%34%80%18%90%5%8%19%47%21%29%59%40%28%32%30%42%28%85%15%13%39%48%19%15%26%25%14%
 
Does the endorsement of a candidate by former President Donald Trump make you more likely to vote for the endorsed candidate? Less likely to vote for the endorsed candidate? Or makes no difference either way
642 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
More Likely57%53%61%64%55%58%54%59%56%57%**56%59%**48%71%51%47%****60%47%**59%51%100%0%0%57%57%60%**64%55%56%61%53%57%63%59%48%61%60%48%56%63%65%54%57%52%62%57%48%73%
Less Likely7%7%6%5%8%7%6%6%7%7%**0%5%**12%4%7%9%****6%9%**6%9%0%100%0%7%8%3%**11%14%4%3%13%5%4%4%12%3%6%11%7%6%10%6%6%7%11%5%9%1%
No Difference34%39%29%27%36%33%37%32%35%33%**44%33%**40%24%38%40%****32%40%**33%35%0%0%100%34%31%35%**22%28%38%35%30%36%29%36%37%34%30%39%35%26%24%37%33%40%27%35%39%21%
Not Sure3%1%5%4%1%2%3%3%3%3%**0%3%**0%1%3%3%****2%3%**2%5%0%0%0%2%3%3%**3%3%2%1%4%2%4%1%3%1%4%2%2%5%1%3%3%0%1%3%4%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%52%48%16%19%34%32%34%66%92%2%5%83%1%15%35%44%18%1%0%79%18%2%76%24%57%7%34%80%18%90%5%8%19%47%21%29%59%40%28%32%30%42%28%85%15%13%39%48%19%15%26%25%14%
 
6If you were filling out your ballot in the Democratic Primary for United States Senate today, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated)
500 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Carla Coffee Wright3%3%3%5%3%2%0%4%1%3%2%5%**3%0%**4%2%2%3%5%2%3%3%1%---3%2%0%3%2%4%4%0%2%8%2%6%1%3%4%1%2%6%2%3%2%3%3%1%4%0%
Clarence (Clay) Taylor2%4%0%4%2%2%1%3%1%2%3%0%**2%4%**3%4%1%0%5%4%1%2%4%---2%4%3%2%2%1%7%5%2%9%5%1%2%2%2%2%2%3%3%1%5%3%3%6%0%4%
Gena Ross2%3%2%4%2%2%1%3%1%2%3%1%**3%0%**0%1%3%4%4%1%3%2%2%---2%2%0%3%2%4%1%0%3%1%1%2%3%1%2%5%3%1%2%2%3%4%3%3%1%0%
Jewel Kelly2%3%2%2%7%0%1%5%0%2%3%1%**3%1%**3%1%3%2%7%1%3%2%3%---2%4%7%2%3%2%4%0%3%3%0%3%3%1%2%5%2%3%5%2%1%3%4%3%1%0%
Josh Shipp1%2%1%5%0%0%0%2%0%2%0%0%**1%1%**0%2%2%0%0%2%1%1%1%---1%1%1%1%2%1%0%0%1%3%2%1%1%0%2%2%1%1%2%0%2%2%2%0%1%4%
Lewis Rolen1%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%1%0%1%**1%0%**4%0%1%1%3%0%1%1%1%---1%1%3%1%1%0%2%0%1%2%1%1%1%0%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%4%
Lucas Kunce10%8%12%8%8%7%18%8%12%10%10%11%**11%7%**8%7%13%16%5%7%14%12%4%---12%4%4%11%12%9%10%4%11%3%10%5%13%5%12%12%11%7%8%9%14%13%13%7%8%8%
Pat Kelly2%0%3%1%2%2%2%1%2%2%1%0%**2%2%**6%2%1%1%4%2%1%1%4%---1%3%4%1%2%2%0%0%2%3%1%1%2%3%0%2%1%2%0%3%1%1%1%1%2%4%
Ronald (Ron) William Harris2%2%2%3%3%2%0%3%1%2%2%5%**2%2%**2%1%2%3%3%1%3%2%2%---1%4%2%2%2%2%3%0%2%3%2%1%3%2%2%2%1%4%3%2%1%3%1%5%2%0%
Spencer Toder3%2%3%8%3%0%0%5%0%3%3%1%**3%2%**11%2%1%3%10%2%2%2%4%---2%3%3%3%2%3%7%0%2%7%2%3%3%2%4%3%3%2%2%4%1%4%2%4%3%0%
Trudy Busch Valentine8%11%6%8%6%8%13%7%10%9%7%8%**8%13%**9%9%10%5%8%9%8%7%11%---8%9%3%10%8%12%3%4%9%4%7%9%9%9%8%9%9%7%8%9%7%10%5%9%11%5%
Undecided63%62%65%51%62%75%63%57%70%62%66%67%**62%69%**50%70%60%62%46%70%61%64%63%---64%64%69%62%63%60%59%87%63%55%67%67%59%72%60%57%64%62%64%63%62%53%63%61%67%71%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%47%53%24%26%28%22%50%50%71%22%7%1%82%15%3%7%39%27%21%11%39%48%73%27%   73%21%8%84%53%25%12%6%79%10%27%28%44%36%35%29%71%29%27%51%23%14%27%15%39%6%
 
How much confidence do you have that votes cast in the primary election for United States Senate will be counted accurately?
1782 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Full Confidence34%38%32%30%32%35%41%31%38%35%36%29%22%57%30%27%23%40%48%68%24%40%56%42%29%20%45%23%43%28%21%60%52%41%20%22%48%19%29%31%43%29%34%42%36%32%39%39%27%31%39%29%41%23%
Some Confidence36%36%36%34%33%39%39%34%39%37%36%31%41%31%36%40%41%34%36%25%41%34%32%35%42%40%43%44%36%42%42%29%29%37%45%36%31%45%36%35%38%33%38%38%38%32%33%38%36%43%32%32%40%33%
Little Confidence17%16%18%22%20%14%14%21%14%17%18%18%23%7%20%21%21%15%11%4%21%15%9%14%21%27%12%21%14%22%23%6%12%16%22%22%13%22%19%21%12%20%18%12%16%21%18%14%21%14%15%25%12%25%
No Confidence7%7%8%8%10%7%3%9%5%7%3%13%9%2%9%8%10%6%2%1%10%6%2%5%5%10%0%8%5%6%9%1%4%5%8%12%5%9%9%8%4%9%6%6%7%7%4%6%10%6%8%11%4%8%
Not Sure5%3%6%7%5%5%3%6%4%4%7%9%4%4%5%3%4%5%3%2%4%5%2%3%3%3%0%4%2%3%5%3%3%2%5%7%2%5%8%4%2%9%3%2%4%9%6%3%6%6%5%3%4%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%23%24%29%24%47%53%82%11%7%38%29%25%15%25%34%11%7%41%34%19%55%21%57%7%34%59%20%49%35%27%23%30%13%50%33%38%29%34%36%37%26%72%28%20%44%37%16%21%21%31%12%
 
8Thinking ahead to the fall now ... Missouri will hold a general election for United States Senate and for other contests in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? Are you ... certain to vote in the November election this year? Will you probably vote? Are the chances you will vote about 50/50? Or will you probably not vote?
1782 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Certain To Vote 59%62%57%41%52%63%79%46%71%61%47%55%67%62%55%80%61%54%58%75%68%54%65%95%22%80%78%81%100%0%66%66%62%59%60%67%61%70%50%57%72%49%60%73%68%36%56%61%58%58%57%62%61%54%
Will Probably Vote20%19%21%24%22%23%11%23%17%20%23%21%19%21%18%10%23%23%22%16%18%23%19%3%67%18%22%16%0%100%19%21%19%22%20%18%21%16%19%23%18%20%23%16%19%23%19%20%20%24%20%17%19%24%
50/50 Chance14%12%15%23%17%10%7%20%9%13%19%15%11%12%19%6%11%18%14%6%9%18%11%1%9%3%0%2%0%0%11%10%14%13%14%10%13%10%18%15%8%20%13%7%9%27%16%12%14%13%15%15%14%13%
Probably Will Not Vote4%4%4%6%6%3%1%6%2%4%7%0%2%2%5%1%2%4%3%4%1%4%3%0%0%---0%0%2%1%4%3%4%3%3%3%7%3%1%6%3%2%2%7%4%3%4%2%4%4%3%6%
Not Sure3%3%4%6%4%2%1%5%2%2%5%9%2%2%3%3%2%2%3%0%3%2%2%1%2%0%0%0%0%0%2%2%1%2%2%2%1%1%5%3%1%6%2%1%2%6%4%3%3%3%5%3%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%23%24%29%24%47%53%82%11%7%38%29%25%15%25%34%11%7%41%34%19%55%21%57%7%34%59%20%49%35%27%23%30%13%50%33%38%29%34%36%37%26%72%28%20%44%37%16%21%21%31%12%
 
9If the November election for US Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
1412 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Eric Schmitt (R)46%49%44%39%40%50%53%39%51%51%13%43%85%8%37%87%75%29%5%3%80%29%4%48%43%89%65%88%49%40%79%6%16%40%70%67%27%76%56%43%41%45%48%46%50%33%31%41%62%52%34%58%39%58%
Lucas Kunce (D)34%34%35%41%37%31%32%39%31%33%49%37%6%77%30%5%10%42%83%87%8%42%85%37%32%3%21%2%36%31%5%76%67%42%12%12%56%9%26%33%44%34%32%38%32%43%46%40%22%29%46%24%41%23%
Undecided19%17%21%20%23%20%15%22%17%17%38%20%10%15%34%8%15%30%12%11%12%30%12%15%26%8%14%10%16%30%16%18%17%18%18%21%17%15%18%24%16%21%20%16%18%24%23%20%16%19%19%18%20%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%19%23%31%28%41%59%84%10%6%41%31%23%17%27%33%11%8%44%33%20%69%24%57%7%34%75%25%52%39%27%24%30%14%52%35%33%29%38%32%39%30%79%21%19%45%36%16%20%21%31%11%
 
10If the November election for US Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
1412 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Eric Schmitt (R)47%49%44%41%41%49%52%41%50%50%16%49%85%7%37%86%76%29%5%3%80%29%4%48%42%91%56%88%49%40%79%6%16%38%72%68%26%77%57%42%40%46%48%45%50%34%35%40%61%53%32%60%39%58%
Trudy Busch Valentine (D)34%34%34%39%35%32%33%37%32%33%53%31%5%78%30%5%9%43%80%88%7%43%83%37%30%2%26%2%36%29%6%76%67%42%12%13%56%10%27%34%42%34%33%38%32%43%44%40%22%27%46%25%41%21%
Undecided19%17%22%19%24%18%16%22%17%18%32%20%10%15%33%9%15%28%16%10%13%28%13%14%28%7%18%10%15%32%16%19%17%20%16%19%18%13%16%24%18%20%19%18%18%23%22%20%17%20%22%15%19%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%19%23%31%28%41%59%84%10%6%41%31%23%17%27%33%11%8%44%33%20%69%24%57%7%34%75%25%52%39%27%24%30%14%52%35%33%29%38%32%39%30%79%21%19%45%36%16%20%21%31%11%
 
11If the November election for US Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
1412 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Vicky Hartzler (R)45%48%42%39%39%50%48%39%49%48%16%43%80%8%38%83%74%27%5%6%77%27%5%46%42%84%65%85%46%41%74%7%17%39%67%65%27%72%54%43%39%41%48%45%49%30%31%40%58%46%38%62%35%53%
Lucas Kunce (D)31%31%32%40%37%26%27%38%27%29%47%35%4%74%25%4%8%39%75%83%6%39%78%33%30%1%11%2%32%29%4%71%63%37%11%10%51%9%21%30%41%33%28%34%29%41%45%35%20%27%42%24%36%22%
Undecided24%21%26%21%24%24%25%22%24%22%37%23%17%18%37%13%18%34%20%11%16%34%16%21%28%15%24%13%21%31%22%22%20%25%21%25%22%18%25%27%20%26%24%20%22%29%25%25%22%27%21%15%29%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%19%23%31%28%41%59%84%10%6%41%31%23%17%27%33%11%8%44%33%20%69%24%57%7%34%75%25%52%39%27%24%30%14%52%35%33%29%38%32%39%30%79%21%19%45%36%16%20%21%31%11%
 
12If the November election for US Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
1412 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Vicky Hartzler (R)44%48%40%37%37%49%48%37%49%48%12%41%80%7%34%84%72%25%4%3%77%25%4%46%39%82%64%87%46%37%73%6%16%37%66%67%25%73%52%41%39%41%47%42%48%27%28%38%59%51%33%58%34%53%
Trudy Busch Valentine (D)33%33%34%41%37%31%29%39%30%31%52%35%4%78%27%3%9%43%78%83%7%43%80%35%31%3%14%1%34%31%5%73%68%38%12%9%56%7%26%31%42%33%30%38%30%45%45%39%21%27%42%26%41%19%
Undecided23%19%26%22%26%20%23%24%22%21%36%24%16%15%38%12%19%32%17%14%17%32%16%19%30%16%22%13%20%32%21%21%16%25%21%24%19%20%23%28%19%26%23%19%21%28%27%23%20%22%25%15%24%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%19%23%31%28%41%59%84%10%6%41%31%23%17%27%33%11%8%44%33%20%69%24%57%7%34%75%25%52%39%27%24%30%14%52%35%33%29%38%32%39%30%79%21%19%45%36%16%20%21%31%11%
 
13If the November election for US Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
1412 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Eric Greitens (R)42%46%38%39%35%45%47%37%46%46%13%37%79%6%31%80%67%25%5%7%72%25%6%44%40%84%48%78%44%38%71%7%15%37%61%63%25%67%52%40%36%41%48%35%45%33%32%36%55%45%32%52%35%59%
Lucas Kunce (D)36%35%37%38%39%33%34%39%34%34%52%35%5%77%35%4%13%46%79%84%9%46%81%38%34%2%30%7%37%31%6%78%67%43%15%12%57%11%23%36%46%34%32%43%34%43%42%43%23%31%47%26%43%22%
Undecided22%19%25%23%26%22%19%25%20%20%35%27%16%16%34%16%21%29%15%9%19%29%13%18%26%14%22%14%19%31%23%15%17%20%24%25%18%21%25%25%18%26%20%21%21%25%26%21%22%24%22%22%22%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%19%23%31%28%41%59%84%10%6%41%31%23%17%27%33%11%8%44%33%20%69%24%57%7%34%75%25%52%39%27%24%30%14%52%35%33%29%38%32%39%30%79%21%19%45%36%16%20%21%31%11%
 
14If the November election for US Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
1412 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryTrump Endorsement ImpactLikely November2020 VoteAbortionRoe V WadeEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalCertainProbableMore LikLess LikNo DiffeCertainProbableTrumpBidenLegal AlLegal w/Illegal Always IRemain LOverturnHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Eric Greitens (R)43%47%39%38%37%46%48%38%47%47%11%42%79%8%32%83%68%26%6%5%74%26%6%44%39%87%55%75%44%42%71%7%15%39%61%66%25%70%55%41%35%42%49%36%46%33%32%38%55%43%34%54%35%61%
Trudy Busch Valentine (D)37%36%37%39%39%36%35%39%35%35%51%36%6%78%37%4%14%48%78%85%10%48%81%40%33%2%27%6%38%31%8%77%69%45%14%15%59%10%26%36%47%35%32%45%35%43%45%43%24%35%45%28%44%19%
Undecided20%17%24%23%24%19%18%24%18%18%38%23%15%14%31%13%19%26%16%10%17%26%13%16%28%11%18%19%18%28%21%16%16%16%25%19%16%19%19%24%19%24%19%19%19%24%22%19%21%22%22%18%21%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%19%23%31%28%41%59%84%10%6%41%31%23%17%27%33%11%8%44%33%20%69%24%57%7%34%75%25%52%39%27%24%30%14%52%35%33%29%38%32%39%30%79%21%19%45%36%16%20%21%31%11%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.