| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22696 |
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1 Week to TX Presidential Primary, Trump and Cruz Tied, Rubio in 3rd Place with Half as Much Support; Clinton Laps Sanders; State Divided on Which President Should Nominate the Next Supreme Court Justice: In his home state of Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz cannot shake businessman Donald Trump and his New York values, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFAA-TV in Dallas and Texas TEGNA. Cruz's best shot at a Super Tuesday win looks at this hour like he may do no better than a draw. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1. In the Republican Primary, it's Cruz 32%, Trump 32%, Marco Rubio 17%, others further back. Cruz narrowly leads Trump among Texas's Hispanic/Latino population, 34% to 27%. Cruz materially leads Trump among Texas's evangelicals, 42% to 28%. Cruz overwhelmingly leads Trump among those who are members of the Tea Party, 62% to 21%. Cruz leads by 11 points in West Texas, which includes El Paso, Midland and 88 surrounding counties, and by a nominal 3 points in East Texas, which includes Houston and 60 surrounding counties. Cruz leads by 20 points among "very conservative" primary voters. Cruz overpowers Trump among Texas Republican primary voters who in 2012 voted for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. Trump leads among voters who in 2012 backed Mitt Romney or Ron Paul. Trump leads by 16 points among "moderates" and by 14 points among non-evangelical voters. Trump leads in North Texas, which includes Dallas and 43 surrounding counties, and Trump leads among the least educated Republican primary voters. Trump leads among the most affluent Texans, but Cruz leads among middle-income primary voters. In Central TX, which includes Austin, San Antonio, and 28 surrounding counties, the two candidates run effectively even. How close are Trump and Cruz at this hour?
* Among "Strong Republicans," Trump and Cruz are effectively tied. Sanders draws near to Clinton, but still trails, among Democratic primary voters who say they are "falling behind" financially. But Clinton overpowers among voters who say they are "doing well" financially or "just getting by." Of those Democratic primary voters who voted for Clinton in 2008, 86% stick with her in 2016. Among Democratic primary voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders 58% to 33%. Clinton polls at or above 60% in North TX, East TX, Central TX and South TX. Sanders comes close to Clinton in West TX, but still trails her there 48% to 42%. Texas likely voters are split on whether the current President of the United States or the next President should appoint the next Justice for the Supreme Court. Of those Republican primary voters who say the current President should appoint the next Justice, Trump and Rubio lead, each with 27% of the vote. Of those Republican primary voters who say the next President should appoint the Justice, Cruz narrowly leads Trump, 36% to 33%. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,750 adults from the state of Texas in the respondent's choice of Spanish or English 02/21/16 through 02/22/16. Interviews were completed after the results of the South Carolina Republican Primary were known, but before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known. Of the 1,750 Texas adults, 1,531 were registered to vote in Texas. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,293 as likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for president, 645 who had either already voted in the Texas Republican primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16, and 569 who had either already voted in the Texas Democratic primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
| 1 | If you were filling out your Republican presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Donald Trump? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? Ben Carson? John Kasich? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 645 Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party | Evangelical | Next Justice | Gun Owner | Financially | 2012 GOP Primary Vote | 2008 Dem Primary | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Current | Next Pre | Yes | No | Doing We | Just Get | Falling | Romney | Paul | Santorum | Gingrich | Obama | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North Te | East Tex | Central | South Te | West Tex | |
| Donald Trump | 32% | 33% | 31% | 29% | 32% | 36% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 33% | ** | 27% | ** | 36% | 33% | 25% | 35% | ** | ** | ** | 28% | 30% | 34% | ** | ** | 21% | 33% | 28% | 36% | 27% | 33% | 34% | 30% | 33% | 32% | 28% | 35% | 40% | 24% | 24% | - | - | 38% | 33% | 30% | 33% | 29% | 34% | 35% | 29% | 34% | 32% | 33% | ** | 25% |
| Ted Cruz | 32% | 32% | 33% | 27% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 31% | ** | 34% | ** | 35% | 32% | 32% | 26% | ** | ** | ** | 48% | 33% | 18% | ** | ** | 62% | 25% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 36% | 33% | 30% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 29% | 22% | 69% | 42% | - | - | 29% | 35% | 31% | 30% | 37% | 27% | 30% | 34% | 28% | 35% | 31% | ** | 36% |
| Marco Rubio | 17% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 17% | 16% | ** | 20% | ** | 16% | 15% | 23% | 6% | ** | ** | ** | 13% | 16% | 23% | ** | ** | 6% | 21% | 14% | 20% | 27% | 15% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 11% | 24% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 18% | - | - | 7% | 16% | 20% | 11% | 15% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 17% | ** | 19% |
| Ben Carson | 5% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | ** | 5% | ** | 5% | 4% | 6% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 6% | 7% | ** | ** | 5% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 4% | - | - | 10% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 7% | ** | 7% |
| John Kasich | 6% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 7% | ** | 4% | ** | 5% | 5% | 5% | 17% | ** | ** | ** | 4% | 3% | 11% | ** | ** | 5% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 17% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 9% | - | - | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 7% | ** | 8% |
| Other | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 1% | ** | 2% | ** | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 3% | ** | ** | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | - | - | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | ** | 2% |
| Uncommitted | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | ** | 0% | ** | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 2% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | ** | 0% |
| Undecided | 5% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 4% | ** | 8% | ** | 2% | 7% | 5% | 7% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 6% | 4% | ** | ** | 0% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 14% | 0% | 1% | - | - | 6% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 1% | ** | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 17% | 32% | 26% | 25% | 49% | 51% | 71% | 2% | 22% | 5% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 30% | 37% | 28% | 3% | 0% | 19% | 68% | 48% | 45% | 17% | 73% | 55% | 38% | 44% | 45% | 8% | 55% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 33% | 50% | 22% | 40% | 38% | 45% | 55% | 35% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 10% | ||
| 2 | If you were filling out your Democratic presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Or Bernie Sanders? |
| 569 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party | Evangelical | Next Justice | Gun Owner | Financially | 2012 GOP Primary Vote | 2008 Dem Primary | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Current | Next Pre | Yes | No | Doing We | Just Get | Falling | Romney | Paul | Santorum | Gingrich | Obama | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North Te | East Tex | Central | South Te | West Tex | |
| Hillary Clinton | 61% | 58% | 65% | 34% | 70% | 67% | 82% | 52% | 73% | 49% | 73% | 68% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 44% | 43% | 66% | 72% | 76% | 71% | 64% | 49% | 48% | 70% | 60% | 69% | 57% | 62% | 61% | 64% | 59% | 63% | 61% | 50% | - | - | - | - | 58% | 86% | 70% | 58% | 58% | 63% | 63% | 56% | 55% | 68% | 60% | 65% | 64% | 60% | 48% |
| Bernie Sanders | 32% | 32% | 31% | 58% | 23% | 27% | 13% | 40% | 21% | 44% | 18% | 28% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 47% | 49% | 25% | 23% | 22% | 25% | 28% | 46% | 43% | 30% | 33% | 23% | 36% | 31% | 37% | 33% | 32% | 30% | 32% | 40% | - | - | - | - | 33% | 12% | 23% | 37% | 33% | 29% | 34% | 34% | 37% | 26% | 34% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 42% |
| Undecided | 7% | 9% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 9% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 0% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 9% | - | - | - | - | 8% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 18% | 55% | 45% | 36% | 21% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 22% | 34% | 30% | 9% | 11% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 86% | 29% | 66% | 70% | 13% | 33% | 63% | 38% | 49% | 11% | 61% | 23% | 23% | 37% | 40% | 37% | 38% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 27% | 31% | 20% | 12% | 9% | ||||
| 3 | Who should pick the next Justice for the Supreme Court of the United States? The current president? The next president? Or, do you not know enough to say? |
| 1744 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party | Evangelical | Next Justice | Gun Owner | Financially | 2012 GOP Primary Vote | 2008 Dem Primary | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Current | Next Pre | Yes | No | Doing We | Just Get | Falling | Romney | Paul | Santorum | Gingrich | Obama | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North Te | East Tex | Central | South Te | West Tex | |
| Current President | 38% | 41% | 36% | 44% | 32% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 39% | 33% | 63% | 38% | 40% | 8% | 19% | 20% | 29% | 60% | 65% | 82% | 17% | 20% | 43% | 69% | 91% | 20% | 45% | 26% | 49% | 100% | 0% | 35% | 44% | 48% | 35% | 27% | 15% | 27% | 23% | 11% | 75% | 71% | 31% | 37% | 44% | 35% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 39% | 42% | 34% | 44% | 35% | 33% |
| Next President | 41% | 41% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 40% | 51% | 38% | 44% | 50% | 20% | 32% | 41% | 84% | 64% | 62% | 33% | 11% | 17% | 4% | 69% | 64% | 32% | 11% | 7% | 75% | 35% | 57% | 32% | 0% | 100% | 51% | 31% | 39% | 41% | 40% | 76% | 62% | 76% | 81% | 11% | 17% | 39% | 41% | 41% | 35% | 41% | 44% | 37% | 45% | 40% | 44% | 36% | 36% | 43% |
| Don't Know Enough To Say | 21% | 17% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 20% | 12% | 24% | 17% | 16% | 17% | 30% | 20% | 8% | 17% | 19% | 38% | 29% | 18% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 25% | 19% | 2% | 5% | 20% | 17% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 25% | 13% | 24% | 33% | 9% | 12% | 1% | 8% | 14% | 12% | 30% | 23% | 14% | 29% | 19% | 14% | 25% | 17% | 17% | 22% | 20% | 29% | 25% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 27% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 56% | 44% | 52% | 11% | 32% | 5% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 17% | 22% | 37% | 12% | 5% | 10% | 77% | 35% | 57% | 38% | 41% | 42% | 52% | 38% | 48% | 12% | 55% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 61% | 23% | 22% | 37% | 41% | 35% | 37% | 29% | 52% | 48% | 29% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 9% |