| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27377 |
| North Carolina Governor Contest Likely to be Called Early on Election Night, With Josh Stein Polling 15 Points Atop Mark Robinson:
North Carolina voters, deadlocked in the Presidential race, are anything but in the contest to replace term-limited Democrat Roy Cooper as Governor. Democrat Josh Stein, the incumbent Attorney General, today wins with 52% of the vote; Republican Mark Robinson, the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, takes 37%. 1% vote for another candidate; 10% are undecided. Little has changed since SurveyUSA last polled the contest for WRAL-TV in September, before the emergence of media reports, which Robinson denies, about potentially inflammatory and racist remarks on a porn website's message board. Then, Stein led by 14 points, 51% to 37%. Robinson has since regained some ground among men, where he had trailed by 10, now trails by 6, but that is offset by a widening gap among women, where Robinson had trailed by 17 points, now trails by 25. Robinson leads by 4 points among white voters, though more specifically he leads by 17 points among white men but trails by 9 among white women. He trails by large double digits among Black, Latino, Asian, and other voters. Robinson narrowly leads in rural North Carolina, trails badly in the suburbs and in urban areas. 92% of voters who say they think of themselves as Democrats vote for Stein, compared to the 79% of those who think of themselves as Republicans who vote for Robinson. In contrast to the race for President, where independent voters narrowly favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by a 4-point margin, in the Gubernatorial race, independents prefer Stein by 34 points, 57% to 23%. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,050 North Carolina adults 10/23/24 through 10/26/24. Of the adults, 929 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 853 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina? |
| 1050 Adults | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Likely | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2024 Presidentia | 2024 Governor | 2020 Vote | Voting Method | Own Gun | Parent | Impacted By Hele | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Urbanicity By Gender | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Ma | White Fe | Black Ma | Black Fe | Already | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Harris | Robinson | Stein | Trump | Biden | Early in | Election | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Urban Me | Urban Wo | Suburban | Suburban | Rural Me | Rural Wo | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | ||
| Yes | 88% | 91% | 86% | 77% | 86% | 88% | 93% | 92% | 83% | 88% | 93% | 92% | 85% | 92% | 89% | 91% | 89% | 76% | 92% | 87% | 90% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 94% | 88% | 93% | 91% | 84% | 92% | 91% | 88% | 89% | 89% | 92% | 88% | 89% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 86% | 91% | 87% | 90% | 88% | 82% | 93% | 91% | 84% | 91% | 93% | 90% | 86% | 90% | 88% | 88% | 92% | 89% | 91% | 86% | 91% | 85% | 91% | 90% | 89% | 81% |
| No | 11% | 9% | 12% | 22% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 23% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 8% | - | - | - | 7% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 8% | 15% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 11% | - | - | - | - | 5% | 3% | - | - | - | 6% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 7% | 8% | 15% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 17% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 11% | 19% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 53% | 47% | 64% | 20% | 8% | 8% | 31% | 33% | 9% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 10% | 35% | 34% | 23% | 35% | 33% | 27% | 17% | 20% | 38% | 11% | 11% | 37% | 38% | 22% | 47% | 47% | 37% | 52% | 39% | 37% | 11% | 60% | 27% | 41% | 57% | 33% | 66% | 21% | 77% | 35% | 32% | 33% | 43% | 36% | 21% | 66% | 34% | 20% | 43% | 37% | 10% | 10% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 20% | 28% | 18% |
| 2 | North Carolina will vote to elect a U.S. president, a governor and other statewide officeholders in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? |
| 929 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Likely | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2024 Presidentia | 2024 Governor | 2020 Vote | Voting Method | Own Gun | Parent | Impacted By Hele | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Urbanicity By Gender | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Ma | White Fe | Black Ma | Black Fe | Already | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Harris | Robinson | Stein | Trump | Biden | Early in | Election | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Urban Me | Urban Wo | Suburban | Suburban | Rural Me | Rural Wo | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | ||
| Already Voted | 35% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 29% | 26% | 34% | 50% | 31% | 26% | 34% | 50% | 29% | 42% | 38% | 32% | 28% | 28% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 39% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 39% | 39% | 26% | 40% | 39% | 26% | 47% | 35% | 28% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 28% | 40% | 39% | 41% | 46% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 58% | 53% | 1% | 36% | 34% | 29% | 39% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 34% | 41% | 32% | 34% | 42% | 41% | 24% | 36% | 35% | 35% | 39% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 27% | 42% | 33% | 32% | 36% | 42% |
| Certain To Vote | 47% | 48% | 46% | 29% | 44% | 51% | 56% | 43% | 39% | 51% | 56% | 43% | 45% | 50% | 49% | 45% | 37% | 50% | 48% | 49% | 50% | 41% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 47% | 45% | 51% | 46% | 46% | 54% | 42% | 52% | 48% | 43% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 45% | 53% | 49% | 47% | 53% | 51% | 51% | 32% | 41% | 84% | 46% | 48% | 54% | 44% | 53% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 43% | 52% | 47% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 52% | 43% | 50% | 49% | 45% | 43% |
| Probably Vote | 10% | 11% | 9% | 21% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 7% |
| 50/50 Chance | 6% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 11% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 19% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 8% | 2% | - | - | - | - | 4% | 2% | - | - | - | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 6% |
| Probably Will Not | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9% | 18% | 24% | 26% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 26% | 23% | 51% | 49% | 64% | 20% | 9% | 7% | 32% | 32% | 9% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 10% | 37% | 36% | 23% | 37% | 35% | 26% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 11% | 11% | 38% | 38% | 22% | 47% | 47% | 37% | 52% | 42% | 40% | 11% | 60% | 27% | 43% | 55% | 34% | 66% | 21% | 77% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 22% | 67% | 33% | 21% | 43% | 37% | 11% | 10% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 19% | 34% | 21% | 28% | 17% |
 | If the election for North Carolina governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? |
| 853 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Likely | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2024 Presidentia | 2024 Governor | 2020 Vote | Voting Method | Own Gun | Parent | Impacted By Hele | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Urbanicity By Gender | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Ma | White Fe | Black Ma | Black Fe | Already | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Harris | Robinson | Stein | Trump | Biden | Early in | Election | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Urban Me | Urban Wo | Suburban | Suburban | Rural Me | Rural Wo | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | ||
| Mark Robinson (R) | 37% | 43% | 31% | 38% | 41% | 34% | 36% | 37% | 40% | 34% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 48% | 13% | 22% | 15% | 56% | 40% | 16% | 11% | 45% | 34% | 23% | 77% | 5% | 24% | 79% | 3% | 23% | 74% | 56% | 26% | 6% | 10% | 64% | 26% | 8% | 74% | 5% | 100% | 0% | 73% | 7% | 36% | 41% | 29% | 47% | 29% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 43% | 36% | 33% | 33% | 43% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 28% | 32% | 47% | 38% | 18% | 40% | 25% | 51% | 43% | 39% | 33% | 31% | 47% |
| Josh Stein (D) | 52% | 49% | 56% | 48% | 51% | 50% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 55% | 44% | 75% | 57% | 64% | 39% | 49% | 76% | 74% | 52% | 55% | 43% | 14% | 88% | 59% | 13% | 92% | 57% | 19% | 35% | 60% | 85% | 83% | 28% | 60% | 84% | 17% | 89% | 0% | 100% | 18% | 88% | 52% | 53% | 55% | 45% | 59% | 50% | 54% | 50% | 53% | 42% | 56% | 58% | 54% | 49% | 54% | 50% | 57% | 61% | 58% | 42% | 57% | 65% | 51% | 64% | 42% | 41% | 50% | 53% | 61% | 44% |
| Other | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Undecided | 10% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 7% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 21% | 21% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 15% | 2% | 11% | 33% | 7% | 7% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 14% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 7% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 5% | 16% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 8% |
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| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 17% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 52% | 66% | 20% | 8% | 7% | 33% | 33% | 9% | 11% | 38% | 51% | 10% | 38% | 36% | 21% | 38% | 36% | 26% | 18% | 21% | 36% | 11% | 11% | 40% | 36% | 23% | 47% | 47% | 37% | 52% | 43% | 42% | 11% | 60% | 27% | 44% | 55% | 34% | 66% | 21% | 78% | 30% | 33% | 36% | 39% | 38% | 24% | 70% | 30% | 21% | 42% | 37% | 11% | 10% | 21% | 22% | 17% | 19% | 35% | 21% | 27% | 17% |