Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13469
Do-Si-Do In Texas Democratic Primary: Clinton and Obama End-Up Even -- 36 hours till votes are counted in the Texas Democratic Primary, contest is a Jump Ball, with Obama's momentum now slowed, and possibly stalled, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-Primary poll conducted for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 5 points. Last week, Obama led by 4 points. Now, Obama leads by 6/10ths of 1 point, effectively tied, and completely consistent with either candidate winning tomorrow by a narrow margin. Clinton's inroads in the final week come among voters age 35 to 49, where she is even today, after trailing by 18 points last week. In East Texas, which includes Houston, Clinton had trailed by 18, now trails by 5. This is offset in Central TX, which includes Austin, where Clinton led last week immediately after being endorsed by the University of Texas newspaper, but now trails by 19. Among voters who attend religious services regularly: tied. Among Pro-Life voters: tied. Among Pro-Choice voters: tied. Among voters focused on the Economy: tied. Obama remains far ahead among men. Clinton remains far ahead among women. Among Latino voters, Clinton finishes 2:1 ahead of Obama, better than she polled 1 week ago, but comparable to where she polled 2 weeks ago.
Filtering / Caveats: 2,000 state of Texas adults were interviewed 03/01/08 and 03/02/08. Of them, 1,766 were registered to vote. Of them, 840 told SurveyUSA they had already voted, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on election day. Of those who have already voted, Clinton leads 50% to 48%. For Obama to carry the state's popular vote (convention delegates are not awarded as a straight function of the popular vote), Obama needs to run at least 3 points stronger than Clinton among those who vote at the precinct tomorrow.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
840 Likely & Actual VotersAllAlready Voted?GenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsAlready Likely VMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratNorth TeEast TexCentral South TeWest Tex
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%47%53%26%32%24%18%57%43%50%12%38%48%17%32%4%10%74%13%15%45%23%52%27%22%37%60%17%82%40%2%19%14%4%4%6%7%27%31%21%11%9%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.