| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13901 |
| In Oregon Democratic Senate Primary, with 77% of Ballots Already Returned: Novick-Merkley Is Too-Close-To-Call: On the final day before Oregon counts ballots in the Democratic primary for US Senate, attorney Steve Novick and state House Speaker Jeff Merkley remain effectively even, in their seesaw pitched battle, with the slightest possible edge at the wire to Novick, who gets 37%, compared to Merkley, who gets 34%. The results are with the 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error of this poll, conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for KATU-TV. Both candidates have an excellent change to win. Though Novick may appear to have slightly more momentum at the wire, 29% of likely voters choose someone other than Novick and Merkley, or are undecided on the last day, and as such, not too much should be read into Novick's nominal advantage here. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, Novick is up 10 points, from 27% to 37%; Merkley is up 3, from 31% to 34%; Realtor and activist Candy Neville falls from 11% to 7%, her worst showing since polling began in early April; three other candidates are also in single digits. 17% of voters are undecided or cast their ballot for another, unnamed candidate. Among men, Novick had trailed by 2, now leads by 8. Among women, Novick had trailed by 7, now trails by 2. Among voters age 18 to 49, Novick had trailed by 2, now leads by 10. Among voters 50+, Novick had trailed by 7, now trails by 3. |
| Filtering: 1,700 state of Oregon adults were interviewed 05/16/08 through 05/18/08. Of them, 1,539 were registered to vote. Of them, 627 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already mailed their ballot or to be likely to return a ballot in the 05/20/08 Democratic Primary. The winner of the closed Democratic primary will face incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in November. All voting is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08. |
 | If you were filling out your ballot today for the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Pavel Goberman? David Loera? Jeff Merkley? Candy Neville? Steve Novick? Roger Obrist? Or some other Democrat? |
| 627 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Already Voted? | Ideology | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Change Your Mind | Top Issue For Next President | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Hispanic | Asian | Actual V | Likely V | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Could Ch | Mind Mad | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Social S | Educatio | Immigrat | Portland | Rest of | |
| Goberman | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | ** | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
| Loera | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | ** | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Merkley | 34% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 28% | 37% | 40% | 28% | 38% | 26% | 43% | 36% | 35% | ** | 14% | 35% | 32% | 29% | 40% | 30% | 37% | 31% | 34% | 33% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 40% | 23% | 28% | 38% | ** | ** | 29% | 42% | 31% | 41% |
| Neville | 7% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 7% | ** | 6% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 4% | ** | ** | 5% | 14% | 6% | 7% |
| Novick | 37% | 40% | 34% | 35% | 40% | 38% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 38% | 27% | 39% | 37% | ** | 35% | 38% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 46% | 29% | 39% | 40% | 27% | 40% | 21% | 39% | 36% | 42% | 37% | 47% | ** | ** | 36% | 13% | 41% | 26% |
| Obrist | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ** | 0% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | ** | ** | 6% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| Other / Undecided | 17% | 17% | 17% | 22% | 15% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 15% | ** | 38% | 14% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 15% | 20% | 14% | 16% | 20% | 15% | 32% | 19% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 8% | ** | ** | 21% | 18% | 15% | 20% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 24% | 43% | 57% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 89% | 4% | 6% | 77% | 23% | 10% | 37% | 40% | 27% | 23% | 50% | 21% | 76% | 21% | 76% | 32% | 10% | 18% | 22% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 69% | 31% |