| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15674 |
| In US Senate Primaries in KY, Republican Grayson & Democrat Mongiardo with Slight Advantage: Nine months until the primary for United States Senator from Kentucky, Republican Trey Grayson and Democrat Dan Mongiardo have an early advantage, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Today, 08/18/2009, nine months until the Republican primary, Grayson edges Rand Paul 37% to 26%. Paul, an eye surgeon, political activist, and son of Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul, leads among the youngest voters and in Eastern Kentucky. Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of State, is ahead among all other groups and runs particularly strongly among moderates, among pro-choice voters, and in Greater Louisville. Three other candidates are in single digits; 13% of likely Republican primary voters say they will vote for another candidate; 17% are undecided. In a Democratic primary today, nine months until the vote, Mongiardo edges Jack Conway 39% to 31%. Among women, Mongiardo, who is Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor, leads by 12 points; among men, Mongiardo leads by 3. Conway, currently Kentucky's Attorney General, leads by 17 points in the Louisville area and is effectively tied with Mongiardo in the North Central portion of the state. Mongiardo leads by nearly 4:1 in Eastern Kentucky and by 2:1 in Western Kentucky. Three other Democratic candidates on the ballot poll in single digits; 9% of likely Democratic primary voters say they will vote for another candidate; 14% are undecided. |
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Look Ahead to November 2010 General Election:
After asking Republican likely primary voters which Republican they will vote for in the primary, and after asking Democratic likely primary voters which Democrat they will vote for in the primary, SurveyUSA asked all registered KY voters, regardless of party affiliation or likeliness to vote in a primary, to think ahead to several possible November 2010 general election matchups.
In a hypothetical 11/10 contest between Republican Trey Grayson and Democrat Jack Conway, Grayson edges Conway, 44% to 37%. In a hypothetical 11/10 contest between Republican Grayson and Democrat Dan Mongiardo, Grayson edges Mongiardo, 46% to 40%. In a hypothetical 11/10 contest between Republican Paul and Democrat Conway, Conway edges Paul, 43% to 38%. In a hypothetical 11/10 contest between Republican Paul and Democrat Mongiardo, it's Mongiardo 43%, Paul 41%, within the survey's hypothetical margin of sampling error. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 Kentucky adults 08/15/09 through 08/17/09. Of them, 1,944 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 516 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the May 2010 Republican Primary; 647 were determined to be likely voters in the May 2010 Democratic primary. |
 | If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Bill Johnson? Brian Douglas Oerther? Roger Thoney? Or another Republican? |
| 516 Likely GOP Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Grayson | 37% | 40% | 33% | 13% | 45% | 41% | 41% | 34% | 41% | 36% | ** | ** | ** | 37% | ** | ** | 35% | 50% | ** | 38% | 35% | 34% | 42% | 42% | 34% | 48% | 40% | 36% | 30% | 42% | 29% | 48% | 43% | 25% |
| Paul | 26% | 29% | 23% | 43% | 20% | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 27% | ** | ** | ** | 26% | ** | ** | 28% | 19% | ** | 29% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 28% | 28% | 21% | 30% | 14% | 24% | 27% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 31% |
| Johnson | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | ** | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Oerther | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Thoney | 5% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | ** | ** | 6% | 2% | ** | 3% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 6% |
| Other | 13% | 12% | 13% | 24% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 13% | ** | ** | ** | 13% | ** | ** | 12% | 12% | ** | 12% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 19% | 9% | 9% | 14% |
| Undecided | 17% | 10% | 26% | 13% | 17% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 18% | 17% | ** | ** | ** | 17% | ** | ** | 16% | 14% | ** | 16% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 14% | 24% | 17% | 16% | 21% | 17% | 11% | 19% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters | 100% | 61% | 39% | 19% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 58% | 42% | 96% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 65% | 26% | 4% | 50% | 50% | 64% | 23% | 13% | 75% | 20% | 69% | 26% | 41% | 59% | 26% | 25% | 29% | 20% |
 | If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? Darlene Fitzgerald Price? Maurice Marion Sweeney? Lillie E. Miller-Johnson? Or another Democrat? |
| 647 Likely Democratic Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Conway | 31% | 34% | 28% | 33% | 40% | 27% | 23% | 38% | 25% | 31% | 26% | ** | ** | ** | 31% | ** | 26% | 34% | 27% | 37% | 25% | 31% | 29% | 33% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 39% | 28% | 34% | 21% | 46% | 33% | 14% |
| Mongiardo | 39% | 37% | 40% | 45% | 33% | 38% | 44% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 39% | ** | ** | ** | 39% | ** | 30% | 43% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 45% | 34% | 31% | 45% | 41% | 34% | 35% | 42% | 42% | 29% | 37% | 52% |
| Price | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | ** | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Sweeney | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Miller-Johnson | 4% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 7% | ** | ** | ** | 4% | ** | 3% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 2% |
| Other | 9% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | 9% | ** | 17% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 8% | 14% | 5% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 9% |
| Undecided | 14% | 11% | 17% | 6% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 14% | ** | ** | ** | 14% | ** | 23% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 18% | 8% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 8% | 12% | 22% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters | 100% | 44% | 56% | 10% | 30% | 37% | 23% | 40% | 60% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 24% | 49% | 20% | 45% | 55% | 54% | 29% | 17% | 44% | 49% | 58% | 39% | 43% | 57% | 24% | 28% | 32% | 17% |
 | Regardless of what you told us about the May 2010 primary, thinking ahead now to the GENERAL election in November of 2010...If the only two names on the ballot for United States Senator from Kentucky were Republican Trey Grayson and ... Democrat Jack Conway, who would you vote for? |
| 1944 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Grayson (R) | 44% | 56% | 34% | 44% | 47% | 43% | 42% | 46% | 43% | 46% | 22% | ** | ** | 73% | 23% | 37% | 72% | 30% | 18% | 50% | 41% | 50% | 38% | 36% | 60% | 25% | 51% | 35% | 37% | 53% | 45% | 44% | 45% | 42% |
| Conway (D) | 37% | 30% | 44% | 39% | 33% | 39% | 40% | 35% | 39% | 35% | 67% | ** | ** | 14% | 58% | 27% | 15% | 50% | 64% | 37% | 37% | 32% | 43% | 43% | 24% | 57% | 31% | 47% | 41% | 34% | 33% | 46% | 37% | 30% |
| Undecided | 18% | 14% | 22% | 17% | 20% | 18% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 19% | 11% | ** | ** | 14% | 19% | 37% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 13% | 23% | 17% | 19% | 21% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 22% | 13% | 22% | 10% | 17% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 91% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 41% | 52% | 8% | 38% | 41% | 14% | 42% | 58% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 56% | 36% | 60% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 33% | 18% |
 | What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Trey Grayson and Democrat Dan Mongiardo, who would you vote for? |
| 1944 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Grayson (R) | 46% | 58% | 34% | 46% | 50% | 43% | 41% | 49% | 42% | 47% | 22% | ** | ** | 74% | 25% | 37% | 73% | 32% | 16% | 47% | 44% | 52% | 39% | 35% | 61% | 25% | 51% | 37% | 39% | 52% | 44% | 47% | 49% | 40% |
| Mongiardo (D) | 40% | 31% | 48% | 38% | 35% | 43% | 47% | 36% | 45% | 39% | 61% | ** | ** | 13% | 63% | 32% | 16% | 55% | 67% | 42% | 39% | 35% | 47% | 47% | 26% | 62% | 36% | 48% | 45% | 37% | 40% | 43% | 37% | 42% |
| Undecided | 14% | 11% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 17% | ** | ** | 13% | 13% | 31% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 10% | 17% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 14% | 18% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 91% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 41% | 52% | 8% | 38% | 41% | 14% | 42% | 58% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 56% | 36% | 60% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 33% | 18% |
 | What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway? |
| 1944 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Paul (R) | 38% | 50% | 28% | 41% | 40% | 35% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 40% | 19% | ** | ** | 63% | 19% | 42% | 67% | 22% | 18% | 43% | 36% | 44% | 27% | 39% | 53% | 20% | 44% | 31% | 35% | 43% | 45% | 35% | 39% | 34% |
| Conway (D) | 43% | 35% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 46% | 41% | 42% | 44% | 42% | 61% | ** | ** | 19% | 64% | 28% | 20% | 58% | 63% | 47% | 40% | 38% | 54% | 42% | 30% | 64% | 39% | 51% | 44% | 42% | 36% | 55% | 42% | 37% |
| Undecided | 19% | 15% | 22% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 20% | 19% | 20% | ** | ** | 19% | 17% | 31% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 11% | 24% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 15% | 19% | 10% | 19% | 29% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 91% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 41% | 52% | 8% | 38% | 41% | 14% | 42% | 58% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 56% | 36% | 60% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 33% | 18% |
 | What if the only two names on the November ballot were Rand Paul and Democrat Dan Mongiardo? |
| 1944 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Paul (R) | 41% | 54% | 29% | 45% | 41% | 40% | 39% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 22% | ** | ** | 68% | 20% | 38% | 70% | 26% | 18% | 45% | 38% | 47% | 33% | 36% | 56% | 22% | 46% | 33% | 36% | 46% | 43% | 40% | 44% | 35% |
| Mongiardo (D) | 43% | 33% | 52% | 39% | 41% | 45% | 47% | 40% | 46% | 42% | 63% | ** | ** | 16% | 66% | 33% | 20% | 58% | 64% | 44% | 42% | 39% | 50% | 45% | 30% | 62% | 38% | 51% | 47% | 40% | 40% | 48% | 41% | 44% |
| Undecided | 16% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 15% | ** | ** | 16% | 14% | 29% | 11% | 17% | 18% | 11% | 20% | 14% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 13% | 16% | 21% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 91% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 41% | 52% | 8% | 38% | 41% | 14% | 42% | 58% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 56% | 36% | 60% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 33% | 18% |