Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24445
 
In Florida's 15th Congressional District, Democrats Are Even Money to Flip Seat Vacated by GOP's Dennis Ross;
Republican Ross Spano and Democrat Kristen Carlson Are Tied at 45% Each, 3 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted:


In the fiercely contested fight to capture the open U.S. House seat in FL-15, Republican Ross Spano and Democrat Kristen Carlson are dead even --- 45% each, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for News 13 Orlando and Bay News 9 in Tampa.

At this hour, 3 weeks till votes are counted, Spano leads 11:1 among Republicans and 9:1 among voters who approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President. Carlson leads 11:1 among Democrats and 17:1 among those who dis-approve of the job President Trump is doing. Of concern to Republicans: Democrat Carlson leads by 16 points among independent voters, who are often the last to make up their minds in an election, and Carlson leads by 47 points among self-described moderates.

If Spano wins, it will be because white voters (where Spano leads by 12 points), voters focused on immigration (where Spano leads by 82 points), and voters focused on the economy (where Spano leads by 38 points) turn out in large numbers. If Carlson wins, it will be because the youngest voters (where Carlson leads by 19 points), African American voters (where Carlson leads by 61 points), voters focused on health care (where Carlson leads by 45 points) and voters focused on education (where Carlson leads by 51 points) turn out in large numbers.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 adults from Florida's 15th Congressional District 10/09/18 through 10/14/18. Of the adults, 824 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 591 had either already returned a ballot or were likely to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (47% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (53% of likely voters) were called on their cell phone by live interviewers who hand-dialed the cell phone, secured the respondent's cooperation, asked the questions, noted the answers, and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview, or were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Florida's 15th Congressional District is an elbow-shaped territory that stretches from the Eastern suburbs of Tampa to the Western edge of Orlando, running through Polk County and the northern portions of Hillsborough County. Dennis Ross was first elected to Congress from Florida's 12th Congressional District in 2010. In 2016, he won re-election to his 4th term with 58% of the vote.
 
1In the election for U.S. House of Representatives how do you vote? Republican Ross Spano? Democrat Kristen Carlson? Or, another candidate?
591 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted2016 Vote2016 House VoteRoss ApprovalTrump ApprovalIssueEducationIncomeUrbanicitySuburbanCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoTrumpClintonRossLangeApproveDisapproApproveDisapproImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioHealth CEnvironmTrumpHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCell PhoLandline
Ross Spano (R)45%44%45%35%42%51%47%39%49%51%11%42%**87%8%28%84%21%8%64%40%87%7%74%14%69%22%81%5%88%61%54%19%25%3%42%51%42%46%48%45%45%48%46%41%41%51%44%46%
Kristen Carlson (D)45%46%45%54%49%38%44%51%41%39%72%54%**8%85%44%9%68%83%35%48%5%84%19%78%24%74%9%85%6%23%33%70%70%82%53%37%48%46%42%46%46%42%44%52%47%41%45%46%
Another Candidate3%4%2%6%3%2%3%4%2%2%9%0%**1%3%6%2%3%5%0%4%2%3%2%4%3%3%3%3%2%4%5%4%1%6%0%2%3%3%2%4%1%1%4%1%6%2%4%2%
Undecided7%6%8%5%6%9%7%6%8%7%8%4%**4%4%21%5%7%4%1%9%6%6%6%5%4%2%6%7%3%13%8%7%3%8%4%10%8%5%8%5%8%8%7%6%6%7%8%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%20%24%29%27%44%56%75%14%10%2%43%42%14%43%30%24%18%82%47%47%50%34%34%33%51%47%16%16%9%15%17%6%16%14%41%45%19%51%30%12%64%21%31%33%53%47%
 
2Do you approve or disapprove of the job Dennis Ross is doing as US Representative?
591 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted2016 Vote2016 House VoteRoss ApprovalTrump ApprovalIssueEducationIncomeUrbanicitySuburbanCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoTrumpClintonRossLangeApproveDisapproApproveDisapproImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioHealth CEnvironmTrumpHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCell PhoLandline
Approve34%34%34%34%30%37%34%32%36%37%16%33%**52%18%27%52%26%14%47%31%53%17%55%13%100%0%53%14%51%50%48%24%26%9%26%39%35%32%38%33%35%34%35%32%34%37%40%28%
Disapprove33%38%30%35%38%35%26%36%31%31%46%38%**16%53%30%17%40%59%30%34%15%52%16%65%0%100%17%52%25%20%22%52%41%52%33%23%34%37%27%39%31%33%35%30%40%31%34%33%
Not Sure33%28%36%31%32%28%39%32%33%32%37%29%**32%28%43%32%35%27%23%35%32%31%29%22%0%0%29%34%24%30%30%25%33%39%41%38%31%31%35%28%34%33%30%37%27%32%26%40%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%20%24%29%27%44%56%75%14%10%2%43%42%14%43%30%24%18%82%47%47%50%34%34%33%51%47%16%16%9%15%17%6%16%14%41%45%19%51%30%12%64%21%31%33%53%47%
 
3Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
591 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted2016 Vote2016 House VoteRoss ApprovalTrump ApprovalIssueEducationIncomeUrbanicitySuburbanCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoTrumpClintonRossLangeApproveDisapproApproveDisapproImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioHealth CEnvironmTrumpHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCell PhoLandline
Approve51%54%49%40%49%58%54%45%56%56%17%62%**91%13%43%92%27%11%62%49%96%9%81%17%80%26%100%0%92%68%74%24%26%1%53%62%48%52%53%51%55%55%54%41%53%56%51%52%
Disapprove47%44%49%60%49%39%43%54%41%42%81%38%**7%86%55%7%69%88%37%49%2%89%17%82%19%74%0%100%8%28%23%72%73%94%46%33%51%47%42%48%44%45%44%55%46%42%47%46%
Not Sure2%2%2%0%2%3%4%1%3%2%2%0%**2%1%3%1%4%1%1%2%2%2%2%1%1%0%0%0%0%4%3%3%0%5%1%5%2%1%5%1%1%0%2%3%2%2%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%20%24%29%27%44%56%75%14%10%2%43%42%14%43%30%24%18%82%47%47%50%34%34%33%51%47%16%16%9%15%17%6%16%14%41%45%19%51%30%12%64%21%31%33%53%47%
 
4Which one of these issues is most important when deciding how you will vote in this election? Immigration? The economy? National security? Education? Health care? The environment? President Trump? Or some other issue?
591 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted2016 Vote2016 House VoteRoss ApprovalTrump ApprovalIssueEducationIncomeUrbanicitySuburbanCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoTrumpClintonRossLangeApproveDisapproApproveDisapproImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioHealth CEnvironmTrumpHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCell PhoLandline
Immigration16%17%16%14%13%22%15%13%18%17%4%29%**29%5%11%31%8%2%28%14%31%3%27%6%24%12%29%3%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%22%18%13%23%15%15%11%19%12%16%21%16%16%
Economy16%20%13%12%13%20%16%13%18%18%7%7%**21%9%17%20%14%8%13%16%22%9%19%12%23%10%21%9%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%13%14%18%16%14%17%15%16%15%20%12%18%13%
National Security9%7%10%10%9%8%9%9%8%8%13%6%**14%5%7%13%7%4%8%9%13%5%12%5%12%6%13%4%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%11%9%8%8%8%11%13%9%5%8%9%8%10%
Education15%12%17%24%21%11%6%23%9%13%28%9%**6%21%22%3%22%26%10%16%4%26%10%23%10%23%7%23%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%10%17%15%9%18%12%12%12%26%14%11%23%5%
Health Care17%15%19%12%17%19%19%15%19%16%23%17%**9%28%12%9%21%27%15%18%8%26%12%21%13%21%9%27%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%15%16%19%19%19%13%27%16%17%14%17%16%18%
Environment6%7%6%12%8%4%3%10%4%6%7%12%**1%13%4%0%6%17%8%6%1%12%1%12%2%10%0%13%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%1%8%7%3%8%8%6%6%8%7%6%7%6%
Trump16%17%15%10%16%8%27%13%17%17%7%20%**16%14%21%17%16%13%15%16%17%15%15%16%12%15%16%15%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%19%14%15%15%13%21%10%16%15%16%17%7%26%
Other3%4%3%5%2%5%2%3%4%3%8%0%**4%3%6%4%4%2%1%4%3%4%3%4%2%2%3%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%3%4%3%4%3%8%3%3%3%3%3%4%
Not Sure2%1%2%1%0%2%3%1%2%1%4%0%**1%2%1%2%1%1%2%2%2%2%2%0%1%1%2%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%1%1%4%1%0%1%2%0%1%3%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%20%24%29%27%44%56%75%14%10%2%43%42%14%43%30%24%18%82%47%47%50%34%34%33%51%47%16%16%9%15%17%6%16%14%41%45%19%51%30%12%64%21%31%33%53%47%
 
5Which one of the following would be the best way to fix the health insurance system? Create a "single-payer" health insurance program with more government involvement? Repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with private-market options? Or keep the Affordable Care Act and make changes to improve it?
591 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted2016 Vote2016 House VoteRoss ApprovalTrump ApprovalIssueEducationIncomeUrbanicitySuburbanCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoTrumpClintonRossLangeApproveDisapproApproveDisapproImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioHealth CEnvironmTrumpHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCell PhoLandline
Single-payer15%18%12%14%17%16%13%15%14%14%11%25%**8%22%15%8%16%27%15%15%8%21%10%20%9%26%8%22%10%3%14%15%26%36%10%12%13%17%14%15%15%13%18%8%21%14%15%14%
Repeal And Replace35%39%31%24%28%36%47%26%41%39%15%27%**63%9%26%62%22%5%28%36%66%4%55%11%52%12%63%4%58%51%59%8%14%4%47%44%33%34%37%29%46%35%37%29%37%36%25%46%
Keep And Improve47%39%52%61%51%43%35%56%40%42%72%44%**26%64%56%27%59%63%55%45%23%71%33%64%37%59%26%69%32%42%23%76%58%59%35%41%50%45%44%54%35%44%43%60%39%46%55%37%
Not Sure4%4%4%2%4%5%5%3%5%4%2%4%**3%5%3%3%3%5%1%4%3%4%2%4%2%3%3%5%1%4%4%2%2%1%7%4%4%4%5%2%4%7%3%3%2%4%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%20%24%29%27%44%56%75%14%10%2%43%42%14%43%30%24%18%82%47%47%50%34%34%33%51%47%16%16%9%15%17%6%16%14%41%45%19%51%30%12%64%21%31%33%53%47%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.