Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17543
 
With Cellphone Respondents Included in the Likely Voter Mix, Democrats in California Look Good, Marijuana Not So Good: Proposition 19, which would de-criminalize marijuana, no longer is favored in SurveyUSA polling, for the first time in 7 tracking polls, according to the latest data gathered exclusively for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Among the subset of voters interviewed on their home telephones, it's No 50%, Yes, 44%. Among voters who do not have a home phone, interviewed on their cellphones, it's Yes 48%, No 36%. When the groups are combined, it's No 46%, Yes 44%, close enough to be within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error, not yet enough breathing room for "No" to be considered a clear favorite, but enough of a "Yes" erosion for backers to be gravely concerned. In August, seniors split on 19. Today, seniors vote "No" 2:1. Greater Los Angeles started off 19 points in favor of 19, but ends 5 points opposed, a 24-point swing. Lower-income voters started 14 points in favor of 19, but end 16 points opposed, a 30-point swing. Among those who have already returned a ballot, "No" runs even stronger.

For US Senator, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican challenger Carly Fiorina are even today among voters interviewed on their home telephones, but when voters without home phones, interviewed on their cellphones, are combined, Boxer tops Fiorina 45% to 40%.

For Governor, Democrat Jerry Brown continues to be an arm's length ahead of Republican Meg Whitman. Brown leads among those interviewed on their home phones and among those interviewed on their cellphones, and when the groups are combined, it's Brown 46%, Whitman 38%.

For Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom maintains an advantage over Republican Abel Maldonado, 42% to 34%. The contest is effectively even among voters who have returned a ballot.

 
Filtering: Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 900 California adults 10/21/10 through 10/25/10. Cellphones were hand-dialed. Of the adults, 731 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 594 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Early voting began 10/04/10. "CPO" = Cell Phone Only, respondents who do not have a home phone and who make and receive phone calls with a cell phone. "Both" = respondents who have both a cell phone and a home phone but for this survey were interviewed on their cell phone by a live operator who dialed the call by hand. "Home Phone" = respondents who were interviewed on their home phone with the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. 44% of the likely voters interviewed for this survey were contacted and interviewed entirely by live operator, 56% of likely voters were contacted and interviewed using recorded voice. CPO respondents account for 25% of likely voters. CPO voters are the least predictable to pollsters. If CPO voters turn-out in smaller numbers than here shown, Democrats and "Yes" will under-perform these numbers, Republicans and "No" will out-perform these numbers.
 
If the election for California Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Meg Whitman? Democrat Jerry Brown? Or another candidate?
594 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyVote in MidtermsCollege GradIncomeOpinion Of Tea PartyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsCPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRarelyUsuallyAlwaysYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Whitman (R)38%25%40%43%40%36%25%38%38%50%33%43%47%6%24%34%39%38%76%10%33%68%32%6%22%36%45%39%37%32%35%44%79%14%37%22%46%36%39%33%
Brown (D)46%45%40%49%44%48%47%43%52%42%44%48%40%75%57%43%50%45%13%81%35%19%51%80%51%47%43%48%43%44%50%44%11%78%39%43%36%51%42%51%
Other8%12%8%6%7%9%14%9%5%4%11%5%8%9%8%8%8%8%4%3%22%7%8%8%12%10%5%5%12%13%8%6%8%4%10%15%10%7%10%6%
Undecided8%19%12%2%9%7%15%10%4%4%12%4%5%10%11%15%4%10%6%6%10%5%8%6%14%7%7%8%8%11%7%6%3%4%14%20%9%6%9%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%25%19%56%49%51%19%32%29%20%52%48%59%6%23%12%29%71%34%42%21%33%40%19%13%38%46%54%46%23%35%42%28%37%20%14%21%39%19%22%
 
California will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from California were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Carly Fiorina? Democrat Barbara Boxer? Or another candidate?
594 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyVote in MidtermsCollege GradIncomeOpinion Of Tea PartyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsCPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRarelyUsuallyAlwaysYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Fiorina (R)40%26%41%46%43%38%27%44%40%48%37%43%50%8%28%29%43%39%80%12%35%75%32%8%25%42%46%40%41%34%44%43%86%12%44%19%49%36%47%34%
Boxer (D)45%43%41%47%44%45%46%40%52%42%42%48%41%66%47%50%48%44%12%77%38%14%53%82%50%43%43%50%37%39%48%46%6%82%35%33%32%50%40%52%
Other7%9%7%6%5%8%8%8%5%7%8%6%5%15%8%9%5%8%4%5%16%7%8%4%9%9%5%5%9%14%5%5%4%4%11%14%5%7%8%7%
Undecided8%22%11%1%8%8%19%9%3%3%13%3%4%11%16%12%4%10%4%7%11%4%7%6%16%6%6%5%12%13%4%6%4%2%10%33%14%7%5%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%25%19%56%49%51%19%32%29%20%52%48%59%6%23%12%29%71%34%42%21%33%40%19%13%38%46%54%46%23%35%42%28%37%20%14%21%39%19%22%
 
California will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Abel Maldonado? Democrat Gavin Newsom? Or another candidate?
594 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyVote in MidtermsCollege GradIncomeOpinion Of Tea PartyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsCPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRarelyUsuallyAlwaysYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Maldonado (R)34%22%32%40%36%32%22%33%34%47%29%40%40%7%34%22%40%32%67%11%28%62%28%8%31%34%37%33%36%33%34%38%68%13%38%17%43%28%43%28%
Newsom (D)42%38%34%46%39%44%39%36%51%40%37%47%40%66%36%50%42%42%15%70%34%13%51%73%38%44%39%47%34%39%42%43%9%76%31%28%31%47%31%52%
Other9%4%7%11%9%8%11%10%8%7%10%7%11%12%5%5%13%7%8%5%19%10%9%7%13%9%8%6%12%13%7%8%14%4%14%6%5%10%9%9%
Undecided15%35%27%3%16%15%28%21%7%6%24%7%10%15%25%22%6%19%11%14%20%15%12%12%19%13%16%14%18%15%17%11%9%7%18%49%21%15%16%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%25%19%56%49%51%19%32%29%20%52%48%59%6%23%12%29%71%34%42%21%33%40%19%13%38%46%54%46%23%35%42%28%37%20%14%21%39%19%22%
 
California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Proposition 19, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
594 Likely & Actual Voters Incl. LeanersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyVote in MidtermsCollege GradIncomeOpinion Of Tea PartyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsCPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRarelyUsuallyAlwaysYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Lean Toward Yes44%48%40%44%48%41%59%42%46%32%48%40%43%50%48%43%43%45%27%56%49%27%49%65%53%43%45%45%44%39%46%49%31%60%35%46%44%42%46%47%
Lean Toward No46%36%46%50%43%48%28%47%46%60%40%52%47%36%46%43%54%42%65%35%39%68%38%25%39%46%47%43%48%55%46%39%65%30%51%37%49%47%47%39%
Don't Lean10%16%15%6%9%11%13%12%7%8%12%8%10%14%7%14%3%13%9%10%12%5%12%10%8%11%9%11%8%7%8%12%4%10%14%17%7%11%7%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters Incl. Leaners100%25%19%56%49%51%19%32%29%20%52%48%59%6%23%12%29%71%34%42%21%33%40%19%13%38%46%54%46%23%35%42%28%37%20%14%21%39%19%22%