| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16657 |
| 8 Weeks To MN DFL Primary for Governor, Dayton Out in Front, But Kelliher, Entenza Have Support in Some Quarters: In a DFL Primary for Governor of Minnesota today, 06/17/10, former US Senator Mark Dayton defeats State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, according to a KSTP-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Dayton leads 3:1 in Western Minnesota and 2:1 among seniors. Kelliher ties Dayton in the greater Twin Cities. Entenza ties Dayton among Independents: Minnesota voters do not declare party affiliations, and any voter can vote in the DFL primary. |
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In General Election Matchups, Republican Emmer Loses Some Ground: In three hypothetical, look-ahead general election match-ups for Minnesota Governor today, 06/17/10, Republican Tom Emmer is in a tight fight no matter his DFL opponent.
Against Democrat Mark Dayton today, it's Emmer 35%, Dayton 38%.
Compared to identical SurveyUSA tracking polls released 6 weeks ago ... |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,250 Minnesota adults 06/14/10 through 06/16/10; of them, 2,079 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 500 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the August 10 DFL primary. SurveyUSA then determined that, of the registered voters, 1,617 were likely to vote in the November 2010 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection. |
 | If the DFL primary for governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Margaret Anderson Kelliher? Mark Dayton? Matt Entenza? Or Peter Idusogie? |
| 500 Likely DFL Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Tea Party Identi | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Suport | Oppose | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
| Kelliher | 26% | 22% | 30% | 31% | 25% | 27% | 21% | 28% | 24% | 25% | 47% | ** | ** | 16% | 31% | 19% | 15% | 29% | 29% | 18% | 29% | 23% | 25% | 29% | 28% | 29% | 23% | 21% | 26% | 34% | 23% | 28% | 24% | 29% | 24% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 19% | 25% |
| Dayton | 39% | 42% | 35% | 42% | 29% | 37% | 48% | 35% | 42% | 39% | 11% | ** | ** | 34% | 42% | 33% | 38% | 37% | 43% | 35% | 39% | 40% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 39% | 40% | 42% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 45% | 35% | 40% | 41% | 33% | 37% | 56% | 46% |
| Entenza | 22% | 24% | 19% | 17% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 21% | 37% | ** | ** | 18% | 20% | 30% | 17% | 25% | 19% | 18% | 25% | 22% | 10% | 19% | 25% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 20% | 22% | 20% | 21% | 18% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 16% |
| Idusogie | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | 3% | 1% | 8% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Undecided | 11% | 8% | 14% | 4% | 21% | 9% | 8% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 3% | ** | ** | 29% | 6% | 10% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 19% | 5% | 15% | 19% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 15% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 17% | 6% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely DFL Primary Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 19% | 25% | 28% | 27% | 44% | 56% | 89% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 14% | 64% | 20% | 18% | 42% | 34% | 16% | 52% | 21% | 11% | 22% | 57% | 51% | 49% | 45% | 22% | 33% | 32% | 65% | 48% | 51% | 41% | 59% | 56% | 13% | 17% | 15% |
 | If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who would you vote for? |
| 1617 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Tea Party Identi | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Suport | Oppose | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
| Emmer (R) | 35% | 41% | 29% | 40% | 40% | 30% | 27% | 40% | 29% | 35% | ** | ** | ** | 72% | 7% | 30% | 69% | 22% | 4% | 72% | 6% | 33% | 28% | 67% | 10% | 33% | 36% | 41% | 33% | 22% | 55% | 17% | 42% | 26% | 29% | 38% | 38% | 33% | 29% | 28% |
| Kelliher (DFL) | 33% | 29% | 36% | 33% | 27% | 37% | 36% | 29% | 36% | 33% | ** | ** | ** | 6% | 64% | 25% | 7% | 40% | 64% | 4% | 66% | 24% | 28% | 8% | 62% | 36% | 30% | 27% | 37% | 43% | 17% | 50% | 30% | 40% | 34% | 34% | 30% | 32% | 34% | 41% |
| Horner (IP) | 12% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 11% | ** | ** | ** | 8% | 9% | 22% | 8% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 8% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 18% | 10% |
| Undecided | 21% | 16% | 25% | 14% | 21% | 21% | 28% | 18% | 24% | 21% | ** | ** | ** | 14% | 21% | 23% | 17% | 23% | 15% | 12% | 16% | 29% | 36% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 23% | 21% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 26% | 17% | 20% | 23% | 20% | 20% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 34% | 26% | 21% | 53% | 47% | 92% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 33% | 37% | 27% | 34% | 44% | 18% | 29% | 33% | 24% | 14% | 37% | 37% | 52% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 25% | 47% | 49% | 54% | 44% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 13% | 14% | 14% |
 | What if the only candidates on the ballot for Governor were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? |
| 1617 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Tea Party Identi | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Suport | Oppose | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
| Emmer (R) | 35% | 42% | 29% | 39% | 42% | 31% | 27% | 41% | 29% | 35% | ** | ** | ** | 73% | 7% | 30% | 71% | 21% | 7% | 70% | 7% | 36% | 29% | 66% | 11% | 35% | 36% | 43% | 33% | 23% | 57% | 17% | 43% | 27% | 30% | 38% | 39% | 33% | 30% | 28% |
| Dayton (DFL) | 38% | 34% | 41% | 38% | 30% | 40% | 46% | 33% | 43% | 38% | ** | ** | ** | 9% | 69% | 29% | 11% | 45% | 70% | 9% | 69% | 30% | 37% | 13% | 64% | 38% | 38% | 31% | 42% | 48% | 22% | 55% | 34% | 45% | 42% | 38% | 35% | 37% | 40% | 49% |
| Horner (IP) | 12% | 14% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | ** | ** | ** | 7% | 10% | 21% | 6% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 6% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 17% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 10% |
| Undecided | 15% | 10% | 20% | 10% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 16% | ** | ** | ** | 10% | 14% | 19% | 12% | 18% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 19% | 28% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 34% | 26% | 21% | 53% | 47% | 92% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 33% | 37% | 27% | 34% | 44% | 18% | 29% | 33% | 24% | 14% | 37% | 37% | 52% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 25% | 47% | 49% | 54% | 44% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 13% | 14% | 14% |
 | What if the candidates were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Matt Entenza, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? |
| 1617 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Tea Party Identi | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Suport | Oppose | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
| Emmer (R) | 37% | 44% | 30% | 43% | 43% | 32% | 29% | 43% | 31% | 37% | ** | ** | ** | 78% | 8% | 31% | 73% | 24% | 6% | 74% | 7% | 38% | 31% | 69% | 11% | 37% | 37% | 45% | 34% | 23% | 60% | 18% | 45% | 28% | 31% | 41% | 40% | 38% | 31% | 29% |
| Entenza (DFL) | 33% | 31% | 35% | 34% | 26% | 37% | 37% | 29% | 37% | 33% | ** | ** | ** | 7% | 61% | 25% | 7% | 40% | 66% | 7% | 63% | 25% | 27% | 10% | 59% | 36% | 31% | 28% | 35% | 43% | 19% | 49% | 31% | 38% | 33% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 36% | 42% |
| Horner (IP) | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 12% | 21% | 7% | 14% | 16% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% |
| Undecided | 18% | 13% | 24% | 13% | 18% | 18% | 24% | 16% | 21% | 19% | ** | ** | ** | 10% | 19% | 23% | 13% | 22% | 12% | 9% | 17% | 23% | 32% | 9% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 13% | 20% | 14% | 22% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 19% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 34% | 26% | 21% | 53% | 47% | 92% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 33% | 37% | 27% | 34% | 44% | 18% | 29% | 33% | 24% | 14% | 37% | 37% | 52% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 25% | 47% | 49% | 54% | 44% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 13% | 14% | 14% |