Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21836
 
No Telling What Will Happen in CA-52, As Voters Digest News Stories About Challenger Carl DeMaio:

In research conducted in the middle of fast-unfolding news events, voters in California's 52nd US Congressional District appear to shrug-off charge and counter-charge involving the Republican challenger Carl DeMaio, and may yet elect him to the US House of Representatives, unseating 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for the U-T San Diego newspaper and KGTV-TV 10News in San Diego.

Interested parties must exercise extreme caution when interpreting these results. Wildcard news events may overtake the normal back-and-forth of a campaign for the US House of Representatives. 89% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after reports DeMaio had been accused by a former campaign worker of sexual harassment. This story was widely reported. The remaining 11% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the San Diego District Attorney announced that it would not press criminal charges against DeMaio. But: between now and Election Day, the contest may be more volatile than were external forces not in play.

Today, it's DeMaio 46%, Peters 45%, with 10% undecided. SurveyUSA has polled the contest 3 times since Labor Day. In that time, DeMaio has never polled less than 46%. Peters has never polled above 47%. So far, there is no erosion in DeMaio's support among Republicans, where he still leads 6:1, and no increase in Peters' support among Democrats. However, among Independents, poll-on-poll, the number of undecided voters has gone up from 8% to 18%. Where these 18% of Independent voters land on Election Day may well determine the outcome of the contest.

Live interviewers were used to reach cell-phone respondents for this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California's 52nd US Congressional District 10/17/14 through 10/20/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/04/14. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phone, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call.

 
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 52nd Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carl DeMaio? Or Democrat Scott Peters?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Top IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoIntegritLeadershFiscal RAbility RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio (R)46%49%43%39%53%43%49%46%46%49%28%53%36%53%43%41%42%74%36%80%13%49%77%47%8%55%45%46%40%47%49%41%48%
Scott Peters (D)45%42%47%43%40%48%47%42%48%45%60%29%41%42%45%47%50%21%62%14%83%33%13%49%77%29%42%46%45%42%44%46%44%
Undecided10%9%10%18%7%8%4%12%7%6%12%18%23%4%11%12%8%5%2%6%5%18%10%4%15%16%13%8%15%11%7%12%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%27%25%28%20%52%48%70%12%9%9%24%76%34%15%22%19%33%35%30%33%40%24%8%27%65%17%31%51%36%64%
 
Which of the following issues is the most important to you in selecting a candidate? Integrity? Leadership? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Top IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoIntegritLeadershFiscal RAbility RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Integrity34%31%36%42%28%30%34%35%32%35%30%29%34%35%33%100%0%0%0%32%36%36%37%29%39%22%40%32%33%38%30%38%31%
Leadership15%15%15%14%15%17%13%15%15%13%21%16%16%14%15%0%100%0%0%12%18%7%10%14%14%28%10%12%17%12%11%16%14%
Fiscal Responsibility22%22%23%17%27%24%21%22%23%23%20%32%13%22%22%0%0%100%0%37%7%24%36%20%11%17%21%24%21%20%25%20%24%
Ability To Reach Across Party Lines19%21%16%15%18%19%24%17%21%20%18%8%22%14%20%0%0%0%100%14%25%19%12%29%14%21%16%20%15%20%21%16%20%
Something Else9%9%9%11%8%10%7%10%8%8%11%13%12%12%8%0%0%0%0%5%13%13%3%9%19%11%11%10%14%9%10%7%10%
Not Sure2%2%1%1%2%1%2%2%1%1%2%3%3%2%2%0%0%0%0%2%2%1%2%0%3%1%2%1%0%1%2%3%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%27%25%28%20%52%48%70%12%9%9%24%76%34%15%22%19%33%35%30%33%40%24%8%27%65%17%31%51%36%64%
 
Who is more trustworthy? Carl DeMaio? Or Scott Peters?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Top IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoIntegritLeadershFiscal RAbility RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio (R)43%45%41%33%47%43%49%40%45%47%30%38%35%50%40%39%37%71%28%77%10%47%73%42%9%48%41%44%34%46%46%33%48%
Scott Peters (D)46%43%48%48%42%47%45%45%46%44%58%47%38%43%47%49%56%22%60%13%81%36%13%52%72%32%45%45%54%38%44%51%43%
Undecided12%12%11%18%11%10%6%15%9%9%12%15%28%7%13%12%7%7%12%10%9%17%14%6%19%19%14%12%12%17%10%16%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%27%25%28%20%52%48%70%12%9%9%24%76%34%15%22%19%33%35%30%33%40%24%8%27%65%17%31%51%36%64%
 
Who better reflects your views on abortion?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Top IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoIntegritLeadershFiscal RAbility RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio (R)31%34%29%28%37%28%32%32%30%35%25%26%18%34%30%33%25%53%18%56%9%31%57%29%1%34%25%33%25%33%33%29%33%
Scott Peters (D)45%46%44%44%47%44%44%45%44%43%61%44%41%40%46%46%57%19%58%16%73%36%13%49%71%30%40%45%44%39%43%49%42%
Undecided24%21%27%27%17%28%24%22%26%23%15%30%41%25%24%22%18%28%24%28%18%33%31%22%28%36%35%22%30%28%23%22%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%27%25%28%20%52%48%70%12%9%9%24%76%34%15%22%19%33%35%30%33%40%24%8%27%65%17%31%51%36%64%
 
Who better reflects your views on transportation issues?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Top IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoIntegritLeadershFiscal RAbility RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio (R)40%44%37%35%42%41%44%38%42%43%33%48%23%44%39%36%35%67%32%67%10%46%68%37%7%50%35%40%34%39%43%35%43%
Scott Peters (D)38%36%41%35%38%40%40%37%40%39%49%34%26%38%39%42%49%17%50%12%71%25%8%43%67%22%42%36%44%38%34%39%38%
Undecided21%20%22%29%20%19%16%25%18%18%18%19%51%18%22%21%17%16%18%21%19%29%24%20%26%28%23%24%21%23%23%26%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%27%25%28%20%52%48%70%12%9%9%24%76%34%15%22%19%33%35%30%33%40%24%8%27%65%17%31%51%36%64%
 
Who better reflects your views on veterans' affairs?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Top IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoIntegritLeadershFiscal RAbility RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio (R)41%44%38%38%47%38%43%43%40%43%31%50%28%42%41%39%35%68%32%69%11%48%68%38%13%54%38%41%32%47%42%39%43%
Scott Peters (D)42%40%45%38%39%46%47%38%47%44%48%40%30%43%42%46%55%20%54%15%75%30%13%49%65%24%43%41%49%42%37%41%43%
Undecided16%16%17%24%14%16%10%19%14%13%21%10%41%14%17%15%10%12%15%16%15%22%19%12%22%22%19%17%19%11%21%21%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%27%25%28%20%52%48%70%12%9%9%24%76%34%15%22%19%33%35%30%33%40%24%8%27%65%17%31%51%36%64%
 
Who better reflects your views on same-sex marriage?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Top IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoIntegritLeadershFiscal RAbility RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio (R)35%36%33%33%40%33%33%36%33%36%39%23%28%40%33%28%32%52%31%56%15%36%49%38%11%46%29%36%28%38%35%36%34%
Scott Peters (D)45%46%44%44%44%46%48%44%47%45%50%44%41%44%46%51%54%23%55%21%74%34%26%45%68%38%42%45%40%44%45%48%44%
Undecided20%17%23%24%16%21%18%20%20%19%11%32%30%17%21%21%14%25%14%23%11%31%25%17%21%17%29%19%32%18%20%16%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%27%25%28%20%52%48%70%12%9%9%24%76%34%15%22%19%33%35%30%33%40%24%8%27%65%17%31%51%36%64%