Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21836 |
No Telling What Will Happen in CA-52, As Voters Digest News Stories About Challenger Carl DeMaio:
In research conducted in the middle of fast-unfolding news events, voters in California's 52nd US Congressional District appear to shrug-off charge and counter-charge involving the Republican challenger Carl DeMaio, and may yet elect him to the US House of Representatives, unseating 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for the U-T San Diego newspaper and KGTV-TV 10News in San Diego. Interested parties must exercise extreme caution when interpreting these results. Wildcard news events may overtake the normal back-and-forth of a campaign for the US House of Representatives. 89% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after reports DeMaio had been accused by a former campaign worker of sexual harassment. This story was widely reported. The remaining 11% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the San Diego District Attorney announced that it would not press criminal charges against DeMaio. But: between now and Election Day, the contest may be more volatile than were external forces not in play. Today, it's DeMaio 46%, Peters 45%, with 10% undecided. SurveyUSA has polled the contest 3 times since Labor Day. In that time, DeMaio has never polled less than 46%. Peters has never polled above 47%. So far, there is no erosion in DeMaio's support among Republicans, where he still leads 6:1, and no increase in Peters' support among Democrats. However, among Independents, poll-on-poll, the number of undecided voters has gone up from 8% to 18%. Where these 18% of Independent voters land on Election Day may well determine the outcome of the contest. Live interviewers were used to reach cell-phone respondents for this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California's 52nd US Congressional District 10/17/14 through 10/20/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/04/14. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phone, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call. |
![]() | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 52nd Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carl DeMaio? Or Democrat Scott Peters? |
608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Yes | No | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Ability | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
Carl DeMaio (R) | 46% | 49% | 43% | 39% | 53% | 43% | 49% | 46% | 46% | 49% | 28% | 53% | 36% | 53% | 43% | 41% | 42% | 74% | 36% | 80% | 13% | 49% | 77% | 47% | 8% | 55% | 45% | 46% | 40% | 47% | 49% | 41% | 48% |
Scott Peters (D) | 45% | 42% | 47% | 43% | 40% | 48% | 47% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 60% | 29% | 41% | 42% | 45% | 47% | 50% | 21% | 62% | 14% | 83% | 33% | 13% | 49% | 77% | 29% | 42% | 46% | 45% | 42% | 44% | 46% | 44% |
Undecided | 10% | 9% | 10% | 18% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 18% | 23% | 4% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 8% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 20% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 31% | 51% | 36% | 64% |
![]() | Which of the following issues is the most important to you in selecting a candidate? Integrity? Leadership? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else? |
608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Yes | No | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Ability | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
Integrity | 34% | 31% | 36% | 42% | 28% | 30% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 35% | 30% | 29% | 34% | 35% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 32% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 29% | 39% | 22% | 40% | 32% | 33% | 38% | 30% | 38% | 31% |
Leadership | 15% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 21% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 18% | 7% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 28% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 14% |
Fiscal Responsibility | 22% | 22% | 23% | 17% | 27% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 32% | 13% | 22% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 37% | 7% | 24% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 25% | 20% | 24% |
Ability To Reach Across Party Lines | 19% | 21% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 24% | 17% | 21% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 22% | 14% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 14% | 25% | 19% | 12% | 29% | 14% | 21% | 16% | 20% | 15% | 20% | 21% | 16% | 20% |
Something Else | 9% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 13% | 13% | 3% | 9% | 19% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 10% |
Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 20% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 31% | 51% | 36% | 64% |
![]() | Who is more trustworthy? Carl DeMaio? Or Scott Peters? |
608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Yes | No | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Ability | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
Carl DeMaio (R) | 43% | 45% | 41% | 33% | 47% | 43% | 49% | 40% | 45% | 47% | 30% | 38% | 35% | 50% | 40% | 39% | 37% | 71% | 28% | 77% | 10% | 47% | 73% | 42% | 9% | 48% | 41% | 44% | 34% | 46% | 46% | 33% | 48% |
Scott Peters (D) | 46% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 42% | 47% | 45% | 45% | 46% | 44% | 58% | 47% | 38% | 43% | 47% | 49% | 56% | 22% | 60% | 13% | 81% | 36% | 13% | 52% | 72% | 32% | 45% | 45% | 54% | 38% | 44% | 51% | 43% |
Undecided | 12% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 28% | 7% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 17% | 14% | 6% | 19% | 19% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 17% | 10% | 16% | 9% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 20% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 31% | 51% | 36% | 64% |
![]() | Who better reflects your views on abortion? |
608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Yes | No | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Ability | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
Carl DeMaio (R) | 31% | 34% | 29% | 28% | 37% | 28% | 32% | 32% | 30% | 35% | 25% | 26% | 18% | 34% | 30% | 33% | 25% | 53% | 18% | 56% | 9% | 31% | 57% | 29% | 1% | 34% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 33% | 33% | 29% | 33% |
Scott Peters (D) | 45% | 46% | 44% | 44% | 47% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 44% | 43% | 61% | 44% | 41% | 40% | 46% | 46% | 57% | 19% | 58% | 16% | 73% | 36% | 13% | 49% | 71% | 30% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 39% | 43% | 49% | 42% |
Undecided | 24% | 21% | 27% | 27% | 17% | 28% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 23% | 15% | 30% | 41% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 18% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 18% | 33% | 31% | 22% | 28% | 36% | 35% | 22% | 30% | 28% | 23% | 22% | 25% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 20% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 31% | 51% | 36% | 64% |
![]() | Who better reflects your views on transportation issues? |
608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Yes | No | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Ability | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
Carl DeMaio (R) | 40% | 44% | 37% | 35% | 42% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 33% | 48% | 23% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 67% | 32% | 67% | 10% | 46% | 68% | 37% | 7% | 50% | 35% | 40% | 34% | 39% | 43% | 35% | 43% |
Scott Peters (D) | 38% | 36% | 41% | 35% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 39% | 49% | 34% | 26% | 38% | 39% | 42% | 49% | 17% | 50% | 12% | 71% | 25% | 8% | 43% | 67% | 22% | 42% | 36% | 44% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 38% |
Undecided | 21% | 20% | 22% | 29% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 51% | 18% | 22% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 21% | 19% | 29% | 24% | 20% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 19% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 20% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 31% | 51% | 36% | 64% |
![]() | Who better reflects your views on veterans' affairs? |
608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Yes | No | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Ability | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
Carl DeMaio (R) | 41% | 44% | 38% | 38% | 47% | 38% | 43% | 43% | 40% | 43% | 31% | 50% | 28% | 42% | 41% | 39% | 35% | 68% | 32% | 69% | 11% | 48% | 68% | 38% | 13% | 54% | 38% | 41% | 32% | 47% | 42% | 39% | 43% |
Scott Peters (D) | 42% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 39% | 46% | 47% | 38% | 47% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 30% | 43% | 42% | 46% | 55% | 20% | 54% | 15% | 75% | 30% | 13% | 49% | 65% | 24% | 43% | 41% | 49% | 42% | 37% | 41% | 43% |
Undecided | 16% | 16% | 17% | 24% | 14% | 16% | 10% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 21% | 10% | 41% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 12% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 21% | 14% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 20% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 31% | 51% | 36% | 64% |
![]() | Who better reflects your views on same-sex marriage? |
608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Yes | No | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Ability | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
Carl DeMaio (R) | 35% | 36% | 33% | 33% | 40% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 33% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 28% | 40% | 33% | 28% | 32% | 52% | 31% | 56% | 15% | 36% | 49% | 38% | 11% | 46% | 29% | 36% | 28% | 38% | 35% | 36% | 34% |
Scott Peters (D) | 45% | 46% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 46% | 48% | 44% | 47% | 45% | 50% | 44% | 41% | 44% | 46% | 51% | 54% | 23% | 55% | 21% | 74% | 34% | 26% | 45% | 68% | 38% | 42% | 45% | 40% | 44% | 45% | 48% | 44% |
Undecided | 20% | 17% | 23% | 24% | 16% | 21% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 11% | 32% | 30% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 14% | 25% | 14% | 23% | 11% | 31% | 25% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 29% | 19% | 32% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 22% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 20% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 31% | 51% | 36% | 64% |