Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13077
South Carolina Democrat Primary: Obama Now Within Striking Distance of Clinton -- In a Democratic Primary in South Carolina today, 12/11/07, 47 days to the vote, Barack Obama rides Oprah Winfrey's coat-tails to be now within within striking distance of Hillary Clinton. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released a month ago, Clinton is down 3, from 47% then to 44% now. Obama is up 7, from 33% then to 40% now. Clinton had led by 14, now leads by 4, within the survey's margin of sampling error. Obama ran stronger in each of the 3 days of the interviewing period, and led Clinton, nominally, in those interviews completed after Winfrey's Sunday 12/09/07 football stadium rally with Obama. This research conducted exclusively for WCSC-TV Charleston and WSPA-TV Greenville. Obama, who is black, continues to lead among black Democratic Primary voters. But Clinton still gets 39% of the black vote, unchanged from a month ago. Clinton gets half the white vote. Obama and John Edwards split the rest. Among men, Obama now leads 2:1. Among women, Clinton leads 5:3 -- a 51-point Gender Gap. Obama's support is young, complicating the analysis of this contest. Among the youngest, least reliable and therefore least predictable voters, Obama leads by 9. Among the oldest, most reliable voters, Clinton leads by 43. Upstate, Clinton leads 5:3. In the Low Country, Clinton leads 5:4. In the Midlands, Obama leads 4:3.
Filtering: 2,200 South Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 12/07/07 through 12/09/07. Of them, 1,877 were registered to vote. Of them, 470 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 01/26/08 South Carolina Democratic Primary. After the 12/07 and 12/08 interviews, but before the 12/09 interviews, Oprah Winfrey appeared in South Carolina with Barack Obama. Caveat: Measuring African American turnout in South Carolina is a challenge in any election, but uniquely so in a Primary where an African American is a candidate for President. It is unknowable at this hour how many infrequent black voters, if any, Obama may turnout in a Primary, and, separately, how many infrequent young voters an Obama candidacy may attract in a Primary. In SurveyUSA's 11/12/07 release, blacks made-up 49% of the Democratic Primary electorate. In today's 12/11/07 release, blacks make-up 54% of the Primary electorate. These survey results should be evaluated with these caveats in mind.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? John Edwards? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
470 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAge<50 / 50+RegionTop Issue For Next President
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberal18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+UpstateMidlandsLow CounEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%40%60%44%54%6%85%7%13%43%19%17%33%30%20%49%51%24%43%33%23%2%23%25%3%9%7%5%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.