Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27273
 
Two Months Out, Carolina Blue?

Harris Leads by 3 Points in Tarheel State on Eve of 1st, Possibly Only Debate; Harris +4, Walz +5 Favorability, Compared to Trump -9, Vance -6:

SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh shows Kamala Harris capturing North Carolina's 16 electoral votes if the election were held today, two months from Election Day and on the cusp of the candidates' September 10th debate.

Harris takes 49% today, Trump 46%; other candidates poll below 1%, with just 3 of 676 likely voters telling SurveyUSA they will vote for another candidate; 5% of likely voters say they are undecided. Harris leads by 9 points among women; Trump leads by 3 among men – a 12-point gender gap. Harris is ahead among voters under age 50, leading by 9 points among 18 to 34-year-olds and by 8 points among those 35 to 49 – but when younger voters are broken down further, Harris, perhaps buoyed by her campaign's social media efforts, holds a 48-point lead among voters 18 to 24, while Trump leads by 7 among 25 to 34-year-olds. 50 to 64-year-olds give Harris a narrow 2-point edge; those 65+ back Trump by a 5-point margin. Trump leads by 20 points among white voters (27 points among white men, 14 points among white women); Harris leads by 74 points among Black voters (75 points among Black women, 73 points among Black men). Latino voters favor Harris by a 52-point margin. Harris leads by 34 points in urban parts of the state; Trump leads by 16 in rural areas. In the suburbs, Harris has a 5 point edge, but suburban women back Harris by 14 points, while suburban men narrowly favor Trump, 47% to 45%.

Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race may be a key factor in Harris' lead: likely voters say that before Biden left the contest, 45% were planning to vote for Trump, 44% for Biden; 2% were looking at third-party candidates; 8% were undecided. 96% of those who are now voting for Trump were planning to vote for him when Biden was his opponent, but only 88% of Harris voters say they were planning to vote for Biden. Extrapolating from small samples should be done with caution, but of the 8% of likely voters – 55 people – who say they were undecided when Trump was facing Biden, 41% say they are now voting for Harris, 5% for Trump; 54% say they remain undecided. Of the 15 likely voters who say they were planning to vote for other candidates – a sub-sample so small that SurveyUSA automatically displays asterisks in that column in the crosstabs below – 60% of those voters (9 people) now vote for Harris, 20% (3 people) for Trump; 13% (2 people) stick with other candidates; 7% (1 person) is now undecided. That finding in particular should be seen more as the results of a virtual focus group exercise than as extrapolatable, scientific research – but SurveyUSA nevertheless reports the data.

The Democratic ticket has a clear advantage on favorability today, with Harris and running mate Tim Walz both in positive territory, Trump and running mate JD Vance both in negative territory:
  • Harris is seen favorably by 50% of likely voters (33% very favorably, 17% somewhat favorably), unfavorably by 46% (8% somewhat unfavorably, 38% very unfavorably). Subtracting unfavorable ratings from favorable ratings yields Net Favorability, and Harris today is at +4. 3% say their opinion of Harris is neutral; 1% say they are unfamiliar with her. Harris is at +56 among the youngest voters.
  • Walz is viewed favorably by 40% of voters, unfavorably by 35% – a Net Favorability of +5. 24% say they have a very favorable opinion of him, 16% somewhat favorable; 9% have a somewhat unfavorable opinion, 26% a very unfavorable opinion. 13% are neutral on the Minnesota governor and VP candidate; 12% are unfamiliar. In rural parts of the state, Walz is at -14 among men, but +2 among women.
  • Donald Trump is at -9 Net Favorability, with 44% viewing the former president favorably (30% very, 14% somewhat) and 53% viewing him unfavorably (10% somewhat, 43% very). As with Harris, just 3% are neutral and 1% say they are unfamiliar. Trump is at -33 among independent voters and -25 among moderates, compared to +2 and +5 for Harris, respectively.
  • Vance is at -6, with 35% viewing him favorably (19% very, 16% somewhat) and 41% unfavorably (9% somewhat, 32% very). 13% are neutral, 11% unfamiliar.
63% of likely voters say they are satisfied with the choices in the 2024 matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris; 32% say they wish they had other choices. 64% of voters who say they consider themselves Republicans are satisfied, as are 74% of Democrats and 42% of independents. When SurveyUSA asked the same question of North Carolina voters in March, when Joe Biden was still in the race, only 39% were satisfied, while 55% said they wished they had other options. Then, in March, 58% of Republicans were satisfied, but only 27% of Democrats and 26% of independents agreed.

45% of all NC adults today say they are optimistic about the economic outlook for their family over the next year; 33% are pessimistic; 22% say they are not sure. That's effectively unchanged from March. Among Trump voters, 33% say they are optimistic, 47% pessimistic; among Harris voters, 59% are optimistic, 22% pessimistic.

Fully crosstabbed results follow...
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults 09/04/24 through 09/07/24. Of the adults, 771 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 676 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina?
900 AdultsAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Yes86%83%88%75%80%85%88%93%78%85%88%93%82%90%87%86%77%83%86%88%82%90%100%100%93%96%80%86%93%80%91%90%85%91%96%90%85%93%100%100%100%100%**100%94%96%100%100%100%88%86%84%87%78%86%93%79%89%93%91%75%89%85%85%89%90%82%89%83%86%85%89%82%89%
No13%15%11%23%17%14%10%6%19%14%10%6%17%8%11%13%23%14%12%10%17%10%--6%3%19%12%5%19%9%9%14%7%4%9%14%6%------5%4%---12%13%15%11%18%14%6%18%10%7%8%22%11%14%13%11%10%16%10%13%12%13%10%16%9%
Not Sure2%2%1%2%3%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%2%2%1%0%3%3%2%1%0%--1%1%1%2%2%1%1%1%1%2%0%1%1%1%------1%0%---0%2%1%2%4%1%0%3%2%0%1%3%0%2%3%0%0%2%1%4%2%2%1%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%10%19%24%24%22%29%24%24%22%53%47%64%20%8%8%31%33%9%11%76%11%34%33%22%36%34%27%16%20%40%12%8%36%40%20%46%49%45%44%2%8%39%36%7%49%41%42%54%33%65%34%32%34%43%34%24%66%34%19%46%35%7%11%26%20%15%20%37%20%28%15%
 
2North Carolina will vote to elect a U.S. president, a governor and other statewide officeholders in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you?
771 Registered VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Certain To Vote76%77%76%46%72%71%79%93%64%71%79%93%67%86%80%73%47%87%78%82%71%73%100%0%80%79%75%81%80%66%89%75%70%83%81%82%70%82%88%88%88%90%**70%82%83%74%89%88%80%74%74%78%63%75%89%68%79%87%83%60%67%79%78%62%69%78%80%82%76%78%76%79%70%
Probably Vote11%11%12%22%10%15%12%4%14%15%12%4%15%8%12%8%19%5%12%12%12%5%0%100%12%11%9%10%12%11%5%11%13%13%12%8%13%13%12%12%12%10%**30%10%10%26%11%12%10%13%11%11%11%16%7%13%12%9%10%14%14%11%10%12%16%11%10%9%11%11%16%8%12%
50/50 Chance8%7%9%21%12%6%5%4%15%6%5%4%11%4%5%17%11%3%6%4%13%20%0%0%6%7%11%5%6%14%3%12%11%2%0%8%11%1%------5%5%---5%9%9%7%15%6%3%13%6%2%4%16%9%8%7%11%8%7%10%5%8%7%4%8%15%
Probably Will Not4%4%3%9%3%6%3%0%5%6%3%0%5%2%2%2%16%4%3%2%4%1%0%0%3%3%3%3%2%6%1%3%5%1%6%2%5%3%------2%2%---4%3%5%3%8%3%0%5%2%2%2%7%8%1%4%11%7%2%0%3%4%4%3%5%0%
Not Sure1%2%1%2%2%1%1%0%2%1%1%0%2%0%1%0%7%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%3%1%0%2%0%1%1%2%0%------0%0%---1%1%1%1%3%0%0%2%1%0%0%3%2%1%1%4%1%1%0%1%1%0%2%0%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%9%18%24%25%24%27%24%25%24%51%49%65%20%8%7%31%34%9%11%76%11%37%36%21%36%37%25%17%21%39%12%10%37%39%22%46%49%45%44%2%8%43%41%7%49%41%44%54%33%66%31%32%37%40%35%25%70%30%20%46%34%8%12%25%21%14%20%37%20%27%16%
 
If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
676 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Donald Trump (R)46%48%43%24%49%44%45%51%42%44%45%51%43%48%57%12%24%43%60%54%11%13%46%43%91%4%40%93%4%38%85%75%38%3%2%80%38%3%100%0%96%2%**5%92%4%41%42%51%54%38%48%45%49%49%41%42%51%44%51%31%31%44%56%28%33%47%40%59%53%47%48%33%60%
Kamala Harris (D)49%45%52%72%42%52%47%46%51%52%47%46%51%46%37%86%76%45%33%40%86%86%49%45%7%94%43%5%94%43%15%22%51%92%98%19%51%94%0%100%3%97%**41%5%92%53%53%43%38%59%44%50%48%46%51%57%43%45%44%63%65%49%40%66%64%45%54%35%43%43%48%63%35%
Other0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%**0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%2%0%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%
Undecided5%7%4%4%9%4%8%3%7%4%8%3%6%5%6%1%0%13%7%6%1%1%5%11%2%2%16%2%2%18%0%3%10%5%0%2%10%3%0%0%1%1%**54%2%4%5%4%6%8%4%7%5%3%4%8%2%5%11%5%5%3%7%4%4%3%8%5%6%3%9%3%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%47%53%7%17%24%26%26%24%24%26%26%47%53%68%19%6%8%32%36%8%10%87%13%39%37%20%38%39%22%18%20%37%13%10%38%37%24%46%49%45%44%2%8%45%43%7%49%41%45%54%32%67%26%34%40%36%36%28%75%25%18%47%35%7%12%25%22%15%20%37%21%27%15%
 
4Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, who were you planning to vote for?
676 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Donald Trump (R)45%48%43%23%48%43%47%50%41%43%47%50%42%49%56%13%28%43%58%54%12%14%46%42%90%3%42%93%4%38%84%75%39%3%2%79%39%3%96%3%100%0%**0%93%3%41%42%51%55%37%48%45%48%48%41%43%50%43%50%31%30%44%56%29%30%45%42%61%52%47%48%32%62%
Joe Biden (D)44%43%45%69%43%45%43%39%50%45%43%39%48%41%34%82%62%32%34%34%82%82%46%35%7%89%34%5%89%32%11%21%44%87%96%16%44%90%2%88%0%100%**0%4%87%52%49%38%36%52%41%45%44%43%45%48%43%41%39%58%57%45%37%64%53%44%45%33%40%41%44%57%31%
Other2%1%3%3%1%4%2%1%2%4%2%1%3%2%3%1%4%0%2%3%1%1%2%4%2%1%4%1%1%6%0%2%4%3%1%1%4%2%1%3%0%0%**0%1%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%3%3%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%3%1%3%2%3%2%1%4%1%
Undecided8%7%9%4%8%8%8%9%7%8%8%9%8%9%7%4%6%25%6%9%5%3%6%19%2%6%21%2%5%24%5%3%13%8%1%4%13%5%1%7%0%0%**100%2%8%4%7%9%7%9%10%8%7%6%11%7%5%14%8%9%11%10%5%6%14%10%9%4%5%10%7%8%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%47%53%7%17%24%26%26%24%24%26%26%47%53%68%19%6%8%32%36%8%10%87%13%39%37%20%38%39%22%18%20%37%13%10%38%37%24%46%49%45%44%2%8%45%43%7%49%41%45%54%32%67%26%34%40%36%36%28%75%25%18%47%35%7%12%25%22%15%20%37%21%27%15%
 
What is your opinion of Kamala Harris?
676 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Very Favorable33%30%36%37%27%35%31%36%30%35%31%36%32%34%22%75%41%25%19%24%76%75%35%22%5%74%15%3%72%17%14%17%28%62%79%15%28%70%0%67%1%68%**23%3%64%40%37%27%29%37%28%35%36%33%31%44%27%27%29%45%43%34%27%46%40%32%36%18%33%31%29%45%23%
Somewhat Favorable17%18%16%37%19%16%19%9%24%16%19%9%20%14%16%13%24%27%16%16%15%12%15%29%6%18%31%4%20%32%4%8%22%30%18%6%22%25%4%26%3%26%**38%4%27%23%19%14%12%21%17%17%11%17%20%15%17%20%15%22%23%16%15%21%24%18%13%18%14%19%18%17%10%
Neutral3%3%3%7%5%5%2%1%5%5%2%1%5%2%3%2%5%5%4%3%0%3%3%6%4%2%3%4%2%4%2%3%4%5%1%2%4%3%3%2%3%1%**12%3%2%5%3%3%2%4%5%2%5%2%3%2%5%3%3%3%1%4%3%1%1%3%6%5%1%4%3%3%2%
Somewhat Unfavorable8%9%7%0%13%10%8%6%9%10%8%6%9%7%9%3%4%15%8%9%3%3%8%8%12%2%11%12%1%12%4%13%12%1%0%9%12%1%11%4%12%2%**12%12%4%6%7%10%8%8%8%8%5%7%11%8%7%10%8%8%7%9%7%6%7%9%9%11%4%8%8%5%13%
Very Unfavorable38%39%37%18%34%35%40%48%30%35%40%48%32%44%49%7%27%27%52%46%6%7%39%32%72%3%39%76%3%35%74%59%33%2%2%66%33%2%80%1%79%2%**10%76%3%25%34%45%48%30%40%38%42%39%35%31%44%40%44%21%24%37%47%21%26%38%35%49%46%38%42%30%49%
Unfamiliar1%1%1%2%2%0%1%1%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%0%4%1%1%1%1%1%0%2%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%**4%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%2%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%3%0%1%4%2%0%1%0%1%1%0%1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%47%53%7%17%24%26%26%24%24%26%26%47%53%68%19%6%8%32%36%8%10%87%13%39%37%20%38%39%22%18%20%37%13%10%38%37%24%46%49%45%44%2%8%45%43%7%49%41%45%54%32%67%26%34%40%36%36%28%75%25%18%47%35%7%12%25%22%15%20%37%21%27%15%
 
What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
676 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Very Favorable30%30%31%19%29%33%29%33%26%33%29%33%30%31%36%10%23%31%36%37%10%10%32%21%66%1%18%67%2%18%72%41%21%2%2%56%21%2%66%0%65%1%**1%62%3%34%26%35%38%23%33%29%36%33%24%29%35%26%33%23%21%26%40%22%20%26%27%40%40%30%31%25%41%
Somewhat Favorable14%17%12%4%24%14%14%11%18%14%14%11%16%13%18%4%5%11%20%17%7%2%13%26%22%6%16%23%5%14%13%30%14%4%2%22%14%3%26%4%26%4%**10%25%5%7%14%16%15%13%15%14%11%17%14%12%16%15%16%10%12%15%15%13%12%18%11%17%14%17%13%11%15%
Neutral3%3%2%10%2%3%2%1%5%3%2%1%4%1%3%3%4%0%4%1%4%3%2%9%2%3%3%1%3%3%1%2%4%3%1%1%4%2%1%3%2%2%**8%2%2%0%4%1%1%4%3%3%3%3%2%3%2%3%2%5%2%3%2%4%2%4%2%3%2%4%2%1%3%
Somewhat Unfavorable10%11%8%15%5%9%9%13%8%9%9%13%8%11%10%11%15%2%11%8%17%7%9%11%5%12%14%5%11%16%3%15%13%4%8%9%13%6%6%11%5%10%**21%8%11%0%10%11%9%11%7%11%9%8%11%10%7%12%11%5%11%10%9%15%9%9%11%14%4%7%16%10%5%
Very Unfavorable43%38%47%52%39%40%45%42%42%40%45%42%41%44%33%70%53%56%28%37%63%75%44%31%5%76%49%3%77%49%10%13%47%87%87%12%47%87%1%81%2%81%**56%4%78%59%46%36%37%48%41%43%40%37%49%45%40%43%38%56%51%46%34%42%56%44%49%26%39%41%38%53%35%
Unfamiliar1%1%1%0%2%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%2%0%0%1%0%0%3%0%2%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%**5%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%2%0%0%4%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%47%53%7%17%24%26%26%24%24%26%26%47%53%68%19%6%8%32%36%8%10%87%13%39%37%20%38%39%22%18%20%37%13%10%38%37%24%46%49%45%44%2%8%45%43%7%49%41%45%54%32%67%26%34%40%36%36%28%75%25%18%47%35%7%12%25%22%15%20%37%21%27%15%
 
What is your opinion of Tim Walz?
676 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Very Favorable24%23%25%23%14%23%27%29%16%23%27%29%20%28%19%44%30%18%18%20%46%44%26%10%6%48%15%5%49%13%11%11%21%48%53%11%21%50%3%46%3%48%**12%5%43%39%28%17%23%25%17%27%27%20%26%30%20%22%25%22%22%25%24%29%18%24%25%19%29%23%21%33%15%
Somewhat Favorable16%17%16%23%18%16%17%14%19%16%17%14%18%15%13%22%10%36%12%14%26%18%16%20%6%25%23%5%25%22%6%10%18%34%20%8%18%28%4%27%4%27%**27%4%29%12%18%16%12%20%17%17%11%16%20%18%15%16%13%26%25%16%12%23%26%17%16%13%11%18%16%19%9%
Neutral13%14%13%12%19%17%14%6%17%17%14%6%17%10%14%15%18%4%16%12%11%18%12%21%14%13%13%12%11%18%7%15%17%8%16%11%17%11%13%12%13%11%**19%14%11%10%11%18%13%14%15%13%15%14%12%10%15%16%13%14%17%13%12%19%16%12%14%16%9%15%10%13%16%
Somewhat Unfavorable9%12%6%5%11%8%10%7%9%8%10%7%9%8%9%6%5%12%12%7%7%5%8%14%15%4%6%14%3%7%6%17%10%1%3%12%10%2%13%4%13%5%**5%13%5%11%8%9%9%9%10%8%9%8%9%7%9%9%9%8%8%8%9%14%5%9%7%15%5%8%11%4%14%
Very Unfavorable26%27%24%19%23%20%21%39%22%20%21%39%21%30%32%4%31%20%35%30%4%4%28%9%47%4%27%51%4%24%60%37%19%1%2%48%19%2%52%4%52%4%**8%50%5%18%24%29%31%21%26%26%23%25%28%18%31%29%30%12%11%27%32%7%13%31%23%31%33%24%28%20%38%
Unfamiliar12%7%15%18%15%15%10%6%16%15%10%6%16%8%13%9%6%11%7%18%6%11%10%26%12%6%17%13%7%16%10%10%15%9%5%10%15%7%15%7%15%5%**29%14%7%9%11%11%12%11%14%10%15%17%5%17%10%7%10%17%17%11%10%8%22%8%14%6%13%12%13%11%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%47%53%7%17%24%26%26%24%24%26%26%47%53%68%19%6%8%32%36%8%10%87%13%39%37%20%38%39%22%18%20%37%13%10%38%37%24%46%49%45%44%2%8%45%43%7%49%41%45%54%32%67%26%34%40%36%36%28%75%25%18%47%35%7%12%25%22%15%20%37%21%27%15%
 
What is your opinion of JD Vance?
676 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Very Favorable19%20%19%9%10%20%18%29%10%20%18%29%15%24%23%3%20%31%26%20%3%2%21%9%39%4%13%40%4%13%56%25%11%0%0%40%11%0%40%3%39%1%**12%39%2%18%18%21%22%17%20%19%17%21%20%16%21%22%23%10%15%17%25%16%15%18%15%26%25%16%20%17%31%
Somewhat Favorable16%17%15%6%28%12%17%14%21%12%17%14%17%16%20%6%10%11%20%20%5%7%17%13%26%8%15%28%6%12%23%30%13%4%3%26%13%4%29%6%28%6%**5%28%7%11%14%20%20%13%19%15%18%14%16%14%20%14%19%9%16%15%18%16%15%17%13%17%18%22%16%11%11%
Neutral13%14%12%17%12%20%10%9%13%20%10%9%17%9%14%14%6%6%16%13%12%16%12%23%15%12%13%14%12%12%9%16%16%5%15%13%16%9%15%10%14%10%**21%14%10%9%12%15%11%14%13%13%16%11%12%12%15%12%11%18%16%13%11%16%16%12%15%16%7%14%12%11%16%
Somewhat Unfavorable9%13%6%2%9%6%11%11%7%6%11%11%7%11%8%18%7%2%11%5%27%11%9%12%6%11%9%5%10%13%4%14%11%5%6%9%11%6%6%11%7%11%**11%7%12%11%9%10%6%12%6%10%10%11%7%11%6%10%10%6%6%9%11%14%2%10%7%18%6%6%13%8%11%
Very Unfavorable32%27%35%51%26%27%33%33%33%27%33%33%30%33%26%48%49%27%23%29%44%51%33%23%6%58%32%5%60%28%3%8%32%78%68%6%32%74%2%61%3%65%**12%4%59%41%36%25%28%35%25%34%29%29%36%33%28%34%30%37%28%36%27%26%30%34%39%18%33%31%26%41%25%
Unfamiliar11%9%13%15%16%15%10%4%16%15%10%4%15%7%10%11%7%24%5%14%9%13%9%21%8%7%19%7%8%22%5%7%17%7%7%6%17%7%9%9%9%7%**40%9%9%10%11%9%13%9%16%8%11%13%9%13%10%9%8%21%18%10%8%13%21%9%11%5%10%11%12%12%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%47%53%7%17%24%26%26%24%24%26%26%47%53%68%19%6%8%32%36%8%10%87%13%39%37%20%38%39%22%18%20%37%13%10%38%37%24%46%49%45%44%2%8%45%43%7%49%41%45%54%32%67%26%34%40%36%36%28%75%25%18%47%35%7%12%25%22%15%20%37%21%27%15%
 
9How satisfied are you with the 2024 matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as leading presidential candidates?
676 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Satisfied With The Choices63%65%61%62%55%65%63%66%57%65%63%66%61%64%59%76%72%53%64%55%87%68%65%45%64%77%38%64%74%42%71%60%53%67%81%65%53%73%62%69%63%70%**34%63%64%73%61%64%66%60%60%64%74%61%57%71%59%56%64%58%65%56%70%82%55%59%54%67%72%63%64%62%60%
Wish I Had Other Options32%32%33%35%40%34%28%30%38%34%28%30%36%29%37%17%24%34%34%39%12%21%30%46%33%19%52%32%22%50%23%38%39%32%17%30%39%26%34%27%33%26%**47%34%32%25%32%33%28%36%34%32%22%32%39%22%37%39%33%30%29%39%25%14%37%37%41%32%20%30%35%33%33%
Not Sure5%4%7%4%5%2%9%5%5%2%9%5%3%7%4%7%4%13%2%6%2%11%5%9%4%4%10%4%4%9%6%2%8%1%2%4%8%2%4%4%4%4%**18%4%4%2%6%3%6%4%7%5%4%7%5%7%4%5%3%12%6%5%5%4%8%5%5%1%8%7%2%5%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%47%53%7%17%24%26%26%24%24%26%26%47%53%68%19%6%8%32%36%8%10%87%13%39%37%20%38%39%22%18%20%37%13%10%38%37%24%46%49%45%44%2%8%45%43%7%49%41%45%54%32%67%26%34%40%36%36%28%75%25%18%47%35%7%12%25%22%15%20%37%21%27%15%
 
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economic outlook for your own family over the next year?
900 AdultsAllGenderAgeAge<50 / 50+RaceRace By GenderLikely VoterParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2024 Presidentia2024 Original Vote2020 VoteVoting MethodOwn GunParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityUrbanicity By GenderRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-2425-3435-4950-6465+18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / White MaWhite FeBlack MaBlack FeCertainProbableRepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpHarrisTrumpBidenOtherUndecideTrumpBidenMailEarlyElectionYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralUrban MeUrban WoSuburbanSuburbanRural MeRural WoCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Optimistic45%51%40%42%50%50%48%35%47%50%48%35%48%42%41%59%45%42%46%36%63%56%47%39%40%59%35%43%57%35%36%43%49%45%59%40%49%51%33%59%33%62%**32%34%54%46%47%46%47%45%53%41%51%44%41%43%46%49%46%43%49%45%44%67%37%49%40%45%42%45%46%48%38%
Pessimistic33%32%33%29%33%28%29%43%32%28%29%43%30%36%37%21%27%33%39%35%16%25%33%42%39%23%38%39%25%35%47%40%28%28%23%43%28%26%47%22%47%19%**45%45%25%35%34%35%35%30%29%35%25%34%39%28%38%33%35%28%31%32%34%16%40%31%33%40%30%33%32%33%31%
Not Sure22%18%26%29%17%22%24%22%21%22%24%22%21%23%22%20%28%25%14%29%21%19%20%19%21%18%27%19%18%30%17%17%23%27%17%17%23%23%20%19%20%18%**23%21%21%19%19%19%17%25%18%24%25%22%20%29%17%18%19%29%20%23%22%17%23%20%27%14%28%22%21%18%31%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%10%19%24%24%22%29%24%24%22%53%47%64%20%8%8%31%33%9%11%76%11%34%33%22%36%34%27%16%20%40%12%8%36%40%20%46%49%45%44%2%8%39%36%7%49%41%42%54%33%65%34%32%34%43%34%24%66%34%19%46%35%7%11%26%20%15%20%37%20%28%15%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.