Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18989 |
9 Mos to Election Day in WA State: Democrat Obama will carry; Republican McKenna Still Favored for Gov:
9 months till Washington state voters elect a Governor, Republican Rob McKenna edges slightly further ahead of Democrat Jay Inslee, 49% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. One month ago, McKenna had led by 3. McKenna continues to do well among men, but now he newly though narrowly also leads among women. A majority of those in Eastern Washington, a majority of more affluent voters, and a majority of college-educated voters back the Republican. In head-to-head matchups for President of the United States, Barack Obama captures Washington's 12 electoral votes, and keeps Washington a Blue State, by defeating:
* Mitt Romney by 11 points, 50% to 39%. Voters are split on Obama's ability to create jobs. 42% have confidence in the President. 48% have no confidence. Cell phone respondents and home phone respondents included in this research. 650 registered voters from the state of WA were interviewed by SurveyUSA 02/13/12 through 02/15/12. Of them, 572 were registered to vote and asked the questions that appear here. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of registered voters) were interviewed on a home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (25% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. In this research, cell phone and home phone respondents vote differently on key issues. Examples In a head-to-head matchup, Barack Obama leads Rick Santorum by 3 points among home phone respondents, indicating a possible close race. But among cell phone respondents, Obama leads by 42 points, a 45-point difference. |
572 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party | Party | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
McKenna (R) | 49% | 51% | 46% | 43% | 47% | 54% | 50% | 45% | 53% | 49% | ** | 55% | 47% | 40% | 52% | 96% | 90% | 84% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 92% | 8% | 48% | 95% | 45% | 85% | 80% | 44% | 19% | 3% | 82% | 44% | 17% | 47% | 46% | 52% | 37% | 57% | 51% | 48% | 55% | 46% |
Inslee (D) | 39% | 35% | 43% | 36% | 41% | 37% | 45% | 38% | 40% | 41% | ** | 25% | 36% | 35% | 40% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 31% | 66% | 78% | 94% | 6% | 84% | 34% | 5% | 42% | 7% | 13% | 38% | 72% | 91% | 12% | 38% | 72% | 39% | 38% | 40% | 44% | 33% | 40% | 43% | 38% | 38% |
Undecided | 12% | 14% | 11% | 21% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 17% | 7% | 11% | ** | 20% | 18% | 25% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 11% | 33% | 13% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 18% | 0% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 18% | 10% | 15% | 16% | 8% | 19% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 16% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 27% | 22% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 51% | 78% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 25% | 75% | 8% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 23% | 23% | 55% | 6% | 91% | 10% | 22% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 41% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 27% | 21% | 51% |
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? |
572 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party | Party | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
Barack Obama (D) | 50% | 46% | 54% | 56% | 55% | 44% | 46% | 55% | 45% | 49% | ** | 54% | 48% | 58% | 47% | 4% | 16% | 15% | 52% | 77% | 91% | 97% | 12% | 93% | 48% | 11% | 53% | 21% | 20% | 52% | 86% | 82% | 20% | 52% | 82% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 49% | 48% | 53% | 46% | 47% | 53% |
Mitt Romney (R) | 39% | 42% | 37% | 26% | 35% | 48% | 49% | 30% | 48% | 42% | ** | 27% | 34% | 21% | 45% | 93% | 78% | 68% | 26% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 83% | 6% | 35% | 78% | 37% | 70% | 74% | 35% | 6% | 6% | 72% | 35% | 8% | 43% | 37% | 40% | 33% | 46% | 39% | 46% | 45% | 33% |
Undecided | 11% | 12% | 9% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 9% | ** | 19% | 18% | 21% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 17% | 22% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 17% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 14% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 8% | 18% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 14% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 27% | 22% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 51% | 78% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 25% | 75% | 8% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 23% | 23% | 55% | 6% | 91% | 10% | 22% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 41% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 27% | 21% | 51% |
3 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Ron Paul ? |
572 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party | Party | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
Barack Obama (D) | 50% | 45% | 54% | 52% | 54% | 45% | 51% | 53% | 47% | 49% | ** | 47% | 52% | 58% | 47% | 7% | 21% | 18% | 51% | 72% | 87% | 94% | 16% | 90% | 47% | 20% | 53% | 24% | 21% | 50% | 81% | 85% | 22% | 50% | 81% | 47% | 51% | 50% | 53% | 45% | 50% | 46% | 47% | 52% |
Ron Paul (R) | 37% | 41% | 33% | 35% | 34% | 38% | 45% | 34% | 40% | 41% | ** | 26% | 21% | 24% | 42% | 85% | 55% | 61% | 34% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 66% | 9% | 37% | 65% | 35% | 66% | 66% | 32% | 11% | 13% | 66% | 32% | 13% | 48% | 34% | 37% | 31% | 42% | 39% | 37% | 45% | 34% |
Undecided | 13% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 17% | 5% | 13% | 13% | 9% | ** | 26% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 23% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 18% | 1% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 8% | 1% | 12% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 16% | 8% | 13% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 27% | 22% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 51% | 78% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 25% | 75% | 8% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 23% | 23% | 55% | 6% | 91% | 10% | 22% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 41% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 27% | 21% | 51% |
4 | What if it were Barack Obama and Rick Santorum? |
572 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party | Party | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
Barack Obama (D) | 51% | 47% | 56% | 58% | 57% | 46% | 44% | 57% | 45% | 50% | ** | 62% | 49% | 62% | 47% | 7% | 16% | 20% | 54% | 79% | 88% | 96% | 13% | 91% | 51% | 7% | 55% | 22% | 17% | 52% | 88% | 92% | 19% | 52% | 87% | 49% | 51% | 52% | 56% | 46% | 51% | 50% | 42% | 55% |
Rick Santorum (R) | 38% | 43% | 34% | 23% | 35% | 45% | 53% | 28% | 48% | 41% | ** | 26% | 27% | 20% | 44% | 89% | 64% | 71% | 23% | 14% | 10% | 4% | 73% | 8% | 37% | 87% | 35% | 70% | 73% | 34% | 5% | 6% | 72% | 34% | 6% | 40% | 34% | 41% | 26% | 46% | 42% | 38% | 51% | 33% |
Undecided | 11% | 11% | 11% | 19% | 9% | 9% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 9% | ** | 12% | 24% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 20% | 9% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 14% | 2% | 13% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 9% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 17% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 7% | 12% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 27% | 22% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 51% | 78% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 25% | 75% | 8% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 23% | 23% | 55% | 6% | 91% | 10% | 22% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 41% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 27% | 21% | 51% |
5 | What if it were Barack Obama and Newt Gingrich? |
572 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party | Party | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
Barack Obama (D) | 56% | 49% | 62% | 59% | 63% | 48% | 55% | 61% | 51% | 54% | ** | 65% | 56% | 62% | 53% | 7% | 20% | 23% | 60% | 87% | 91% | 97% | 16% | 93% | 56% | 20% | 59% | 20% | 29% | 55% | 92% | 89% | 26% | 55% | 90% | 49% | 55% | 58% | 60% | 51% | 55% | 49% | 55% | 59% |
Newt Gingrich (R) | 34% | 38% | 31% | 22% | 30% | 44% | 39% | 25% | 42% | 37% | ** | 22% | 23% | 20% | 39% | 88% | 71% | 62% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 77% | 5% | 29% | 70% | 32% | 74% | 61% | 29% | 5% | 6% | 65% | 29% | 6% | 39% | 33% | 33% | 27% | 41% | 35% | 40% | 40% | 29% |
Undecided | 10% | 13% | 7% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 14% | 7% | 9% | ** | 12% | 22% | 17% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 14% | 24% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 8% | 2% | 15% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 16% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 4% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 5% | 12% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 27% | 22% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 51% | 78% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 25% | 75% | 8% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 23% | 23% | 55% | 6% | 91% | 10% | 22% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 41% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 27% | 21% | 51% |
6 | Do you have confidence? ... Or, no confidence? ... in Barack Obama's ability to create jobs? |
572 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party | Party | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
Confidence | 42% | 37% | 47% | 45% | 44% | 39% | 38% | 45% | 39% | 41% | ** | 41% | 47% | 47% | 40% | 7% | 16% | 8% | 39% | 54% | 88% | 92% | 13% | 90% | 34% | 18% | 44% | 18% | 18% | 41% | 76% | 65% | 18% | 41% | 70% | 31% | 41% | 46% | 43% | 36% | 46% | 41% | 40% | 43% |
No Confidence | 48% | 53% | 43% | 40% | 48% | 53% | 52% | 44% | 53% | 50% | ** | 32% | 49% | 40% | 51% | 93% | 80% | 82% | 43% | 25% | 8% | 7% | 85% | 8% | 50% | 82% | 46% | 78% | 77% | 48% | 9% | 26% | 77% | 48% | 15% | 56% | 45% | 50% | 42% | 55% | 48% | 50% | 55% | 45% |
Not Sure | 10% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 9% | ** | 27% | 4% | 14% | 9% | 0% | 4% | 10% | 18% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 16% | 0% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 5% | 15% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 12% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 27% | 22% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 51% | 78% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 25% | 75% | 8% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 23% | 23% | 55% | 6% | 91% | 10% | 22% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 41% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 27% | 21% | 51% |