| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19025 |
| Brady Leads Crowded Field But Trails "Undecided" in Portland Oregon Mayoral Primary Race: In a primary election for mayor of Portland today, 02/27/11, businesswoman Eileen Brady finishes first with 25% of the vote, according to this latest exclusive KATU news poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Former City Commissioner Charlie Hales finishes second with 16%; Oregon House of Representatives member Jefferson Smith finishes third with 10%. Environmental activist Tre Arrow gets 7% today; real estate broker and musician Bill Dant gets 3%; college student Max Brumm gets 2%. 8% of likely voters say they will vote for another candidate; more than 20 candidates have filed to run in the primary. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the May 15 primary, the top two finishers will advance to the general election in November. 28% of likely voters are undecided today, 11 weeks until votes are counted. Any outcome is possible. 45% of likely voters say the economy is the top issue in their vote for mayor; 25% say education. 7% each identify public transportation and homelessness as the top issue; 11% say it is something else. Cell phone and home phone respondents included in this research: 940 city of Portland adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 02/23/12 through 02/26/12. Of the adults, 852 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/15/12 non-partisan primary, This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (86% of registered voters, 91% of likely voters), were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (14% of registered voters, 9% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. |
 | If you were filling out your ballot for Portland mayor today, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) Eileen Brady? Max Brumm? Bill Dant? Charlie Hales? Jefferson Smith? Tre Arrow? |
| 555 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Economy | Educatio | Public T | Homeless | Somethin | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Eileen Brady | 25% | 25% | 27% | 18% | 23% | 27% | 30% | 22% | 29% | 26% | 27% | 24% | ** | 16% | 26% | 23% | 28% | 22% | 35% | 26% | 20% | 27% | 26% | ** | 26% | 15% | 30% | 28% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 27% |
| Max Brumm | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3% | ** | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | ** | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Bill Dant | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 0% | ** | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 0% | ** | 3% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Charlie Hales | 16% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 14% | ** | 13% | 16% | 13% | 19% | 13% | 14% | 23% | 15% | 17% | 14% | ** | 16% | 19% | 14% | 16% | 8% | 14% | 19% | 14% | 18% | 17% |
| Jefferson Smith | 10% | 14% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 13% | ** | 13% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 19% | 7% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 9% | ** | 10% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 3% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 13% |
| Tre Arrow | 7% | 10% | 4% | 13% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 16% | 15% | ** | 0% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 12% | ** | 7% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 10% |
| Another Candidate | 8% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 12% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 23% | ** | 0% | 9% | 11% | 4% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 9% | ** | 7% | 18% | 6% | 5% | 14% | 11% | 5% | 13% | 7% | 5% |
| Undecided | 28% | 23% | 34% | 27% | 36% | 23% | 26% | 34% | 24% | 31% | 28% | 7% | ** | 50% | 26% | 31% | 29% | 19% | 19% | 20% | 26% | 29% | 26% | ** | 29% | 22% | 33% | 28% | 35% | 29% | 27% | 27% | 30% | 26% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 54% | 46% | 13% | 31% | 35% | 21% | 44% | 56% | 80% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 91% | 45% | 25% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 20% | 62% | 17% | 5% | 93% | 19% | 34% | 43% | 11% | 34% | 55% | 31% | 32% | 38% |
 | Which one issue is most important in your vote for mayor? The economy? Education? Public transportation? Homelessness? Or something else? |
| 555 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Top Issue | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Cell Pho | Landline | Economy | Educatio | Public T | Homeless | Somethin | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Economy | 45% | 46% | 45% | 44% | 41% | 46% | 52% | 42% | 48% | 44% | 36% | 62% | ** | 47% | 45% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 61% | 42% | 39% | ** | 46% | 64% | 47% | 37% | 65% | 53% | 38% | 48% | 46% | 45% |
| Education | 25% | 22% | 28% | 29% | 33% | 19% | 20% | 32% | 20% | 26% | 31% | 16% | ** | 31% | 25% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 30% | 22% | ** | 26% | 16% | 26% | 29% | 8% | 21% | 31% | 18% | 25% | 30% |
| Public Transportation | 7% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 19% | 5% | ** | 9% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 8% | 8% | ** | 7% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% |
| Homelessness | 7% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 16% | ** | 6% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 13% | ** | 6% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 5% |
| Something Else | 11% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 7% | 0% | ** | 3% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 10% | 15% | ** | 11% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ** | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 4% | ** | 4% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 54% | 46% | 13% | 31% | 35% | 21% | 44% | 56% | 80% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 91% | 45% | 25% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 20% | 62% | 17% | 5% | 93% | 19% | 34% | 43% | 11% | 34% | 55% | 31% | 32% | 38% |