Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26353
 
Uvalde's Impact Appears to Reach Into North Carolina US Senate Race...

Dem Beasley Has Slight Advantage Over GOP Budd for US Senate, Fueled by High Projected Turnout Among Those Supporting Assault Rifle Ban:

Five months until Election Day and three weeks since the shootings at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas horrified the nation, Democrat Cheri Beasley narrowly leads Republican Ted Budd in the race to replace retiring US Senator Richard Burr, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh.

Today Beasley receives the votes of 44% of likely voters; Budd 40%. Beasley, former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, leads by 15 points among women; Budd, the incumbent Representative in North Carolina's 13th Congressional District and the owner of a gun range, leads by 7 points among men – a 22-point gender gap. Beasley leads by nearly 10:1 among Black voters; Budd leads 5:3 among white voters. Beasley, unsurprisingly, does very well among liberals and Democrats, as does Budd with conservatives and Republicans; meanwhile, moderates prefer Beasley by a 28-point margin, and independents prefer Beasley by 13. Beasley leads by 26 points in greater Raleigh; Budd leads by 7 in the Charlotte area and by 3 in Greensboro; the two candidates are tied in Southern and Coastal North Carolina.

Most noticeably, though, and surely to be of concern to Republican candidates nationwide is the impact the nationwide debate over guns and mass shootings appears to be having on this contest. 49% of likely voters say they strongly support a ban on assault rifles – dwarfing the 18% who somewhat support such a ban, the 12% who somewhat oppose a ban, and the 18% who strongly oppose a ban – and that 49% of the electorate votes for the Democrat by a 51-point margin, 69% to 18%. Those who strongly support an assault rifle ban are also the most likely to say they are 100% certain to vote in the November election: 60% of those who strongly support a ban are certain to vote, compared to 54% of the much smaller number who strongly oppose a ban.

SurveyUSA notes that this poll, like every poll, is a snapshot in time, and the issues motivating voters at this particular time in June may or may not still be motivating voters in the same way when one-stop voting begins in October – but at this moment, Uvalde and the resulting conversations about potential new legislation on guns is weighing on the Budd campaign.
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 North Carolina adults 06/08/2022 through 06/12/2022. Of the adults, 915 are registered to vote in North Carolina. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 650 as being likely to cast a ballot in the November election for United States Senate. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of North Carolina adults, selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina?
1100 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November 2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentAssault Rifle BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoStr. SupSome SupSome OppStr. OppHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Yes83%84%82%73%81%88%95%77%91%88%85%52%83%92%91%76%90%89%79%89%87%86%89%89%88%86%89%100%100%93%96%88%79%83%84%86%81%80%83%73%86%93%75%87%94%87%76%81%85%82%84%84%86%79%
No15%14%16%24%18%9%5%21%7%11%13%44%13%7%7%23%8%8%19%9%11%12%10%11%10%12%10%--6%3%10%19%14%15%12%17%18%14%25%11%6%22%12%5%11%21%16%13%17%15%15%12%19%
Not Sure2%2%2%3%2%3%0%2%2%1%3%4%4%1%2%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%1%0%2%2%0%--1%1%1%3%3%1%2%2%1%3%2%3%1%3%1%1%2%2%3%2%1%1%2%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%30%25%26%20%54%46%63%20%10%7%32%32%27%33%29%32%16%18%37%12%7%35%37%19%17%54%39%36%46%52%32%66%44%21%14%18%38%31%31%43%35%22%64%36%17%43%40%32%18%29%20%
 
2North Carolina will elect a United States Senator in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Would you say you are ... ?
915 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November 2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentAssault Rifle BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoStr. SupSome SupSome OppStr. OppHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Certain Not To Vote5%5%4%5%7%5%1%6%3%3%5%14%4%6%3%4%5%4%4%8%3%5%2%0%6%5%1%0%0%6%2%5%4%4%5%3%4%7%7%6%3%4%5%5%3%4%6%6%4%5%6%4%4%3%
Unlikely To Vote4%4%5%9%3%5%0%6%3%4%4%3%7%5%3%5%5%3%5%5%5%4%4%1%5%4%3%0%0%3%2%5%4%4%5%3%3%6%5%6%4%3%6%4%3%3%7%6%4%4%6%2%4%5%
Maybe 50% / 50%17%18%16%26%19%16%7%23%12%17%15%25%21%17%12%23%16%13%23%8%19%18%23%10%14%18%19%0%0%15%13%16%18%18%16%14%25%21%16%19%20%13%19%19%12%13%25%21%17%15%16%24%16%15%
Likely To Vote17%18%17%19%21%18%11%20%15%19%16%15%16%17%19%16%17%17%16%12%18%21%15%13%15%21%14%100%0%17%18%16%19%22%16%18%21%15%14%18%18%17%19%17%16%16%21%14%16%20%20%22%14%13%
100% Certain To Vote54%53%54%36%48%53%80%42%65%55%57%37%42%54%60%49%56%61%48%65%53%48%55%75%59%48%62%0%100%57%63%56%53%49%56%60%44%49%54%46%52%62%47%52%65%62%36%50%57%51%49%47%58%61%
Not Sure3%3%3%4%3%3%0%4%2%2%3%6%11%2%3%4%1%1%4%1%1%3%1%1%1%3%1%0%0%2%2%3%2%3%3%2%3%1%3%4%4%1%3%4%1%2%4%2%2%4%3%1%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%26%24%27%22%50%50%66%21%6%7%36%35%24%35%31%30%17%19%39%13%7%37%39%20%17%54%44%41%49%49%33%66%45%20%13%18%33%32%35%38%37%25%67%33%17%44%39%33%18%30%19%
 
3If the election for United States Senate were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
650 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November 2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentAssault Rifle BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoStr. SupSome SupSome OppStr. OppHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Ted Budd (R)40%46%34%30%37%42%46%34%44%52%8%**23%79%6%35%81%4%29%84%68%24%5%4%76%24%5%29%43%79%3%45%34%35%42%18%47%59%74%46%39%36%32%43%46%44%29%30%41%42%45%44%30%42%
Cheri Beasley (D)44%39%49%38%42%48%48%40%48%33%79%**54%10%82%37%9%87%42%8%23%52%88%77%16%52%83%40%46%7%84%41%49%42%45%69%34%20%8%41%42%49%50%42%40%44%47%53%43%42%38%41%56%41%
Shannon Bray (L)2%2%2%4%2%2%0%3%1%2%0%**0%1%2%2%1%1%3%1%1%3%1%3%1%3%2%3%1%1%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%0%3%1%3%2%3%1%2%2%3%3%2%1%3%1%1%2%
Undecided14%13%15%28%20%7%6%23%7%13%12%**23%9%10%26%9%7%26%6%9%22%6%16%7%22%10%27%10%12%12%12%15%21%11%11%17%21%14%13%16%13%15%14%12%11%22%14%14%14%15%14%12%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%21%23%27%29%44%56%69%21%4%6%36%39%22%37%34%27%19%19%38%13%9%38%38%21%25%75%46%46%49%49%33%67%49%18%12%18%30%31%39%36%36%28%73%27%15%45%39%32%18%30%20%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.