| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14603 |
| Older Minnesota Voters Re-Think McCain; Obama Now On Top in Gopher State for 1st Time Since GOP Convention:
In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/19/08, sixteen days till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 17 days ago, Obama is up 4 points; McCain is down 3. In three previous SurveyUSA polls since mid-August, Obama had received 46% to 49% of the vote, McCain 46% or 47%. This is the first time either candidate has reached 50%.
Just after the Republican national convention, held in St. Paul, McCain led by 4 points among voters age 50+. Today, McCain trails by 12, a 16-point swing to the Democrat in 6 weeks. Among Independent voters, McCain had led by 9 just after the GOP convention, now trails by 6, a 15-point swing to the Democrat. There is movement to Obama among both men and women, and in the greater Twin Cities region. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Minnesota adults 10/16/08 through 10/18/08. Of them, 744 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Minnesota has 10 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Minnesota by 3 points in 2004; Al Gore carried the state by 2 points in 2000. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 655 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Abortion | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
| McCain (R) | 44% | 45% | 42% | 41% | 50% | 41% | 39% | 46% | 40% | 48% | 34% | 41% | 46% | ** | ** | ** | 87% | 11% | 41% | 77% | 35% | 10% | 45% | 43% | 67% | 26% | 41% | 46% | 42% | 51% | 47% | 39% |
| Obama (D) | 50% | 48% | 52% | 54% | 45% | 52% | 52% | 49% | 52% | 47% | 55% | 52% | 48% | ** | ** | ** | 11% | 85% | 47% | 14% | 59% | 88% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 68% | 52% | 49% | 52% | 39% | 46% | 56% |
| Other | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 2% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 4% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 22% | 34% | 25% | 19% | 57% | 43% | 51% | 11% | 39% | 92% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 31% | 38% | 27% | 31% | 47% | 18% | 47% | 53% | 43% | 55% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 13% | 14% | 15% |