Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14603
Older Minnesota Voters Re-Think McCain; Obama Now On Top in Gopher State for 1st Time Since GOP Convention: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/19/08, sixteen days till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 17 days ago, Obama is up 4 points; McCain is down 3. In three previous SurveyUSA polls since mid-August, Obama had received 46% to 49% of the vote, McCain 46% or 47%. This is the first time either candidate has reached 50%.

Just after the Republican national convention, held in St. Paul, McCain led by 4 points among voters age 50+. Today, McCain trails by 12, a 16-point swing to the Democrat in 6 weeks. Among Independent voters, McCain had led by 9 just after the GOP convention, now trails by 6, a 15-point swing to the Democrat. There is movement to Obama among both men and women, and in the greater Twin Cities region.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Minnesota adults 10/16/08 through 10/18/08. Of them, 744 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Minnesota has 10 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Minnesota by 3 points in 2004; Al Gore carried the state by 2 points in 2000.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
655 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAbortionIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
McCain (R)44%45%42%41%50%41%39%46%40%48%34%41%46%******87%11%41%77%35%10%45%43%67%26%41%46%42%51%47%39%
Obama (D)50%48%52%54%45%52%52%49%52%47%55%52%48%******11%85%47%14%59%88%50%50%27%68%52%49%52%39%46%56%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%34%25%19%57%43%51%11%39%92%2%1%4%31%38%27%31%47%18%47%53%43%55%33%67%58%13%14%15%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.