| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25332 |
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24 Wks Till Washington State Presidential Ballots Are Counted, Trump on Track To Receive Smaller Share of Vote Than Any Republican in 108 Years; Inslee Keeps Statehouse Safe For Democrats Against Any GOP Challenger: Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump, mid-pandemic, with 25 million Americans unemployed, faces an uphill battle for re-election coast-to-coast, and nowhere is that more evident than in Washington State, where, at the moment, Trump is on track to receive a smaller share of the Evergreen State's popular vote than any Republican Presidential candidate since William Howard Taft in 1912. At this hour, assuming that the election is held on schedule in November, assuming Trump is the Republican Party nominee and Joe Biden is the Democratic party nominee, the contest stands: * Biden, 57%. * Trump, 31%. * Some other candidate, 5%. * Undecided, 7%. If you remove the undecided voters and re-normalize the totals, the contest stands: * Biden, 61%. * Trump, 33%. If you assume that no serious 3rd party candidate will emerge in the 21 weeks till voting begins, the further re-normalized results are: * Biden 65%. * Trump 35%. The last Republican presidential candidate to receive less than 35% of the Washington State popular vote was William Taft, in 1912, who finished 3rd with 23% of the vote behind Woodrow Wilson (42%) and Theodore Roosevelt (28%). Certainly, Republicans have every right to claim that Trump has not yet concentrated his fire on Biden, who carries much baggage and often shoots himself in the foot when he opens his mouth. But the "today" head-to-head poll results show how much of an uphill climb Trump would have just to claw back to the 46% of the vote he received in Washington State in 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried the state by just 2 points. In a hypothetical general election for Governor, incumbent Democrat Jay Inslee today defeats Republican challenger Tim Eyman by 29 points, defeats Republican challenger Joshua Freed by 27 points, defeats Republican challenger Loren Culp by 25 points and defeats Republican challenger Phil Fortunato by 22 points. Inslee does not receive less than 56% of the vote against whichever of the Republicans emerge from the 08/04/20 primary as his general-election foe. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 state of Washington adults 05/16/20 through 05/19/20. Of the adults, 556 are registered to vote; of those registered, 530 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote and were asked about the November head-to-head match-ups. In 1992, Republican George Herbert Walker Bush received 37% of the popular vote in Washington State, in a 3-way contest with Bill Clinton and Ross Perot. In 1964, Republican Barry Goldwater received 38% of the vote against Lyndon Johnson. No other Republican has received less than 40% of the popular going back to Taft in 1912. In 2020, Washington State has 12 Electoral College Votes. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington? |
| 650 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | November Vote | Education | Income | Home | Filed Unemployme | High Risk | Religion | Military | Gun Owner | Evangelical | Single Parent | LGBTQ | Mass Transit | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Certain | Likely | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Yes | No | Yes | No | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 86% | 84% | 87% | 77% | 87% | 87% | 99% | 81% | 91% | 87% | ** | 82% | 82% | 93% | 91% | 82% | 87% | 90% | 85% | 91% | 88% | 100% | 100% | 69% | 89% | 89% | 76% | 83% | 93% | 91% | 76% | 88% | 85% | 90% | 82% | 88% | 90% | 86% | 81% | 89% | 85% | 88% | 84% | 84% | 86% | 81% | 86% | 92% | 85% | 82% | 86% | 85% | 85% | 87% | 88% | 85% | 85% |
| No | 14% | 15% | 12% | 21% | 12% | 13% | 1% | 17% | 9% | 13% | ** | 16% | 16% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 15% | 8% | 12% | - | - | 30% | 10% | 10% | 21% | 16% | 7% | 9% | 22% | 12% | 14% | 9% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 10% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 15% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | ** | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | - | - | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 50% | 50% | 31% | 24% | 29% | 16% | 55% | 45% | 69% | 4% | 12% | 15% | 27% | 39% | 28% | 8% | 17% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 84% | 11% | 17% | 36% | 47% | 23% | 36% | 40% | 63% | 37% | 29% | 70% | 45% | 52% | 26% | 18% | 18% | 39% | 21% | 79% | 33% | 67% | 16% | 84% | 13% | 87% | 11% | 89% | 7% | 93% | 25% | 52% | 23% | 30% | 19% | 51% |
| 2 | Looking ahead now to the general election in November for President and other offices ... Are you absolutely certain you will vote in the November election? Likely to vote? Or unlikely to vote? |
| 556 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | November Vote | Education | Income | Home | Filed Unemployme | High Risk | Religion | Military | Gun Owner | Evangelical | Single Parent | LGBTQ | Mass Transit | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Certain | Likely | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Yes | No | Yes | No | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Certain To Vote | 84% | 83% | 85% | 64% | 85% | 94% | 98% | 74% | 95% | 85% | ** | 79% | 83% | 83% | 90% | 81% | 94% | 81% | 82% | 93% | 87% | 100% | 0% | 76% | 85% | 87% | 78% | 86% | 86% | 88% | 76% | 81% | 86% | 88% | 81% | 89% | 77% | 83% | 85% | 86% | 84% | 86% | 83% | 87% | 84% | 71% | 86% | 84% | 84% | 83% | 84% | 82% | 84% | 88% | 87% | 89% | 81% |
| Likely To Vote | 11% | 12% | 10% | 25% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 3% | 10% | ** | 16% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 13% | 1% | 16% | 12% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 18% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 14% | 7% | 20% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 20% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 14% |
| Unlikely To Vote | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | ** | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | ** | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 28% | 25% | 29% | 19% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 29% | 41% | 26% | 8% | 18% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 84% | 11% | 14% | 37% | 49% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 67% | 33% | 30% | 70% | 47% | 50% | 27% | 18% | 18% | 37% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 84% | 12% | 88% | 12% | 88% | 7% | 93% | 25% | 52% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 50% |
 | If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 530 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | November Vote | Education | Income | Home | Filed Unemployme | High Risk | Religion | Military | Gun Owner | Evangelical | Single Parent | LGBTQ | Mass Transit | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Certain | Likely | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Yes | No | Yes | No | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 31% | 31% | 31% | 30% | 32% | 25% | 42% | 31% | 32% | 37% | ** | 19% | 22% | 84% | 2% | 21% | 89% | 70% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 31% | 36% | 36% | 34% | 28% | 27% | 31% | 34% | 32% | 30% | 23% | 35% | 28% | 35% | 48% | 41% | 26% | 17% | 31% | 31% | 38% | 28% | 53% | 27% | 26% | 32% | 20% | 33% | 8% | 33% | 32% | 31% | 31% | 40% | 30% | 27% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 57% | 55% | 59% | 55% | 56% | 63% | 50% | 56% | 58% | 52% | ** | 76% | 60% | 8% | 92% | 54% | 11% | 19% | 59% | 85% | 89% | 58% | 46% | 50% | 49% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 56% | 57% | 61% | 53% | 42% | 47% | 66% | 68% | 51% | 58% | 51% | 60% | 35% | 61% | 59% | 56% | 62% | 56% | 62% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 60% | 51% | 59% | 59% |
| A Candidate From Another Party | 5% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 4% | ** | 5% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 14% | 0% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 19% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Undecided | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | ** | 0% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 0% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 14% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 14% | 6% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 26% | 25% | 30% | 20% | 50% | 50% | 70% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 29% | 42% | 26% | 8% | 18% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 88% | 12% | 14% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 35% | 44% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 50% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 36% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 84% | 11% | 89% | 12% | 88% | 7% | 93% | 24% | 52% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 50% |
 | Now, if the November election for Governor were today, and the only candidates were Republican Tim Eyman and Democrat Jay Inslee, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 530 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | November Vote | Education | Income | Home | Filed Unemployme | High Risk | Religion | Military | Gun Owner | Evangelical | Single Parent | LGBTQ | Mass Transit | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Certain | Likely | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Yes | No | Yes | No | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Tim Eyman (R) | 31% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 32% | 27% | 34% | 32% | 30% | 37% | ** | 12% | 23% | 75% | 4% | 26% | 86% | 65% | 24% | 6% | 8% | 31% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 25% | 26% | 33% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 28% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 44% | 35% | 25% | 23% | 32% | 31% | 40% | 26% | 55% | 26% | 28% | 31% | 22% | 32% | 21% | 32% | 28% | 32% | 31% | 36% | 32% | 28% |
| Jay Inslee (D) | 60% | 60% | 60% | 58% | 57% | 66% | 57% | 57% | 62% | 54% | ** | 83% | 63% | 13% | 92% | 62% | 14% | 23% | 64% | 87% | 92% | 62% | 46% | 53% | 54% | 66% | 62% | 60% | 59% | 58% | 64% | 60% | 59% | 62% | 57% | 50% | 57% | 67% | 65% | 55% | 61% | 49% | 65% | 41% | 63% | 60% | 60% | 70% | 58% | 72% | 59% | 61% | 59% | 60% | 56% | 62% | 61% |
| Undecided | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 9% | ** | 5% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 12% | 0% | 12% | 12% | 7% | 0% | 8% | 22% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 26% | 25% | 30% | 20% | 50% | 50% | 70% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 29% | 42% | 26% | 8% | 18% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 88% | 12% | 14% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 35% | 44% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 50% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 36% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 84% | 11% | 89% | 12% | 88% | 7% | 93% | 24% | 52% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 50% |
 | What if these were the only two candidates for Governor? Who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 530 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | November Vote | Education | Income | Home | Filed Unemployme | High Risk | Religion | Military | Gun Owner | Evangelical | Single Parent | LGBTQ | Mass Transit | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Certain | Likely | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Yes | No | Yes | No | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Loren Culp (R) | 31% | 30% | 33% | 32% | 33% | 26% | 35% | 33% | 30% | 37% | ** | 13% | 21% | 81% | 4% | 22% | 84% | 69% | 23% | 6% | 10% | 31% | 33% | 31% | 35% | 28% | 24% | 35% | 31% | 33% | 28% | 28% | 32% | 30% | 33% | 47% | 35% | 26% | 20% | 30% | 31% | 38% | 28% | 50% | 28% | 30% | 31% | 22% | 32% | 14% | 32% | 32% | 30% | 33% | 34% | 36% | 27% |
| Jay Inslee (D) | 56% | 55% | 58% | 59% | 55% | 57% | 52% | 57% | 55% | 52% | ** | 57% | 66% | 10% | 92% | 51% | 11% | 22% | 55% | 89% | 88% | 58% | 42% | 55% | 53% | 59% | 61% | 57% | 53% | 53% | 64% | 51% | 58% | 57% | 55% | 46% | 55% | 53% | 66% | 54% | 57% | 43% | 63% | 41% | 59% | 60% | 56% | 71% | 54% | 75% | 55% | 60% | 58% | 49% | 55% | 41% | 63% |
| Undecided | 13% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 10% | ** | 30% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 28% | 5% | 9% | 22% | 5% | 2% | 11% | 25% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 8% | 16% | 15% | 8% | 20% | 9% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 21% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 19% | 10% | 9% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 18% | 11% | 23% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 26% | 25% | 30% | 20% | 50% | 50% | 70% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 29% | 42% | 26% | 8% | 18% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 88% | 12% | 14% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 35% | 44% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 50% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 36% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 84% | 11% | 89% | 12% | 88% | 7% | 93% | 24% | 52% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 50% |
 | What if these were the only two candidates for Governor? Who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 530 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | November Vote | Education | Income | Home | Filed Unemployme | High Risk | Religion | Military | Gun Owner | Evangelical | Single Parent | LGBTQ | Mass Transit | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Certain | Likely | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Yes | No | Yes | No | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Phil Fortunato (R) | 34% | 37% | 31% | 31% | 33% | 36% | 37% | 32% | 36% | 38% | ** | 36% | 21% | 82% | 4% | 34% | 84% | 74% | 29% | 8% | 8% | 34% | 36% | 33% | 36% | 34% | 28% | 33% | 38% | 38% | 27% | 36% | 34% | 37% | 33% | 47% | 39% | 39% | 20% | 34% | 34% | 46% | 28% | 54% | 31% | 32% | 35% | 22% | 36% | 17% | 36% | 31% | 31% | 44% | 35% | 48% | 29% |
| Jay Inslee (D) | 56% | 54% | 59% | 60% | 54% | 57% | 53% | 57% | 55% | 52% | ** | 56% | 70% | 10% | 92% | 49% | 10% | 20% | 56% | 88% | 92% | 58% | 45% | 53% | 53% | 60% | 60% | 58% | 53% | 53% | 63% | 52% | 58% | 55% | 56% | 45% | 55% | 55% | 66% | 53% | 57% | 42% | 64% | 39% | 59% | 61% | 56% | 68% | 55% | 73% | 55% | 61% | 57% | 49% | 55% | 40% | 63% |
| Undecided | 10% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 10% | ** | 8% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 15% | 5% | 0% | 8% | 19% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 26% | 25% | 30% | 20% | 50% | 50% | 70% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 29% | 42% | 26% | 8% | 18% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 88% | 12% | 14% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 35% | 44% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 50% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 36% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 84% | 11% | 89% | 12% | 88% | 7% | 93% | 24% | 52% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 50% |
 | What if these were the only two candidates for Governor? Who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 530 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | November Vote | Education | Income | Home | Filed Unemployme | High Risk | Religion | Military | Gun Owner | Evangelical | Single Parent | LGBTQ | Mass Transit | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Certain | Likely | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Yes | No | Yes | No | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Joshua Freed (R) | 30% | 28% | 31% | 27% | 35% | 26% | 35% | 31% | 29% | 37% | ** | 9% | 20% | 75% | 4% | 24% | 86% | 64% | 22% | 7% | 5% | 30% | 30% | 29% | 34% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 32% | 33% | 23% | 26% | 32% | 29% | 32% | 44% | 33% | 24% | 20% | 33% | 29% | 37% | 26% | 47% | 27% | 30% | 30% | 18% | 32% | 13% | 31% | 29% | 29% | 32% | 33% | 35% | 26% |
| Jay Inslee (D) | 57% | 56% | 58% | 61% | 55% | 58% | 51% | 58% | 55% | 53% | ** | 56% | 68% | 14% | 92% | 48% | 9% | 25% | 56% | 88% | 95% | 58% | 45% | 54% | 52% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 52% | 53% | 65% | 53% | 58% | 58% | 55% | 46% | 58% | 54% | 65% | 53% | 58% | 44% | 63% | 45% | 59% | 62% | 56% | 71% | 55% | 76% | 55% | 61% | 58% | 50% | 54% | 42% | 64% |
| Undecided | 13% | 16% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 15% | 10% | ** | 34% | 12% | 12% | 4% | 28% | 5% | 11% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 12% | 25% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 21% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 22% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 14% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 13% | 23% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 26% | 25% | 30% | 20% | 50% | 50% | 70% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 29% | 42% | 26% | 8% | 18% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 88% | 12% | 14% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 35% | 44% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 50% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 36% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 84% | 11% | 89% | 12% | 88% | 7% | 93% | 24% | 52% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 50% |