Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12311
 
CA GOP PRIMARY: Has Fred Thompson Hit The Ceiling? Seven months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest re-stabilizes, with Rudolph Giuliani 13 points ahead of John McCain and Fred Thompson, who tie for 2nd place, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely GOP Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, and KGTV-TV San Diego. Giuliani's 13-point advantage today is identical to his lead 60 days ago, in SurveyUSA's May 2007 tracking poll, and a slight increase from the 7-point advantage Giuliani had in June. Fred Thompson, who went from 11 points in May to 21 points is June, has stopped climbing, and settles in at 19 points in July. Is this Thompson's ceiling? Or has Thompson, whose official entry into the race may come at any moment, not yet begun to fight? Mitt Romney runs 4th today, at 9%, down ever-so-slightly from 12% in May and 11% in June. Undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich is at the moment not a factor, at 6%. Today, 9% of CA likely GOP voters prefer one of the other Republicans running, who include Mike Huckabee, Tommy Thompson, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Jim Gilmore, Tom Tancredo and Sam Brownback.
 
CA DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: Again No Movement; Hillary 2:1 Atop Obama. In a Democratic Primary in California today, 7 months to the vote, Hillary Clinton continues to receive approximately half of all votes in a 9-person field, and today leads her nearest challenger, Barack Obama, 2:1, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco and KGTV-TV San Diego. In 6 tracking polls since March 2007, Clinton has never been below 43% and today is at her high of 49%. In 6 tracking polls since March 2007, Obama has never been above 31% and today is at his low of 24%. Clinton support skews old, and among those age 65+, Obama is now in 3rd place, slightly behind John Edwards. Obama support skews young. Today is the first time that Clinton is ahead of Obama among men in CA. In past months, SurveyUSA observed that Clinton's CA lead came entirely from female voters. Today, Clinton maintains a 38-point advantage among female Democrats, but she also now leads by 4 among Democratic males, a 9-point swing in her direction since last month. The correct statement today is that Clinton's lead comes overwhelmingly (but not exclusively) from females. 9% of Democrats today prefer one of the other candidates, who include Bill Richardson, Christopher Dodd, Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel.
 
Filtering: 2,100 state of California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 6/29/07 through 7/1/07. Of them, 1,769 were registered to vote. Of them, 499 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Republican Presidential Primary, 763 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Democratic Presidential Primary. The CA Primary is in 218 days. The general election for President of the United States is in 491 days, on 11/04/08. Immigration reform was very much in the news during the field period for this poll. SurveyUSA observes that, using the identical methodology it has in past months and in past CA elections, the number of California Hispanics who now identify themselves as likely voters is up. Separately, the number of adults age 18 to 34 who identify themselves as likely voters is up.
 
If the Republican Primary were today, would you vote for... Rudy Giuliani? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Newt Gingrich? Or some other Republican?
499 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderRaceIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Giuliani32%32%31%32%**31%29%26%41%35%33%28%28%36%33%29%37%22%34%32%38%30%35%30%32%32%33%34%26%38%27%30%36%35%29%31%35%26%36%33%27%33%30%28%29%39%30%27%
McCain19%19%20%16%**21%40%18%21%26%18%24%16%23%24%11%20%17%16%20%23%17%16%21%15%20%17%20%23%17%17%19%18%19%23%17%15%33%19%14%16%23%15%33%23%18%15%16%
Romney9%8%11%10%**9%3%12%7%5%10%2%14%4%7%15%6%16%10%10%5%11%8%11%10%10%13%3%17%9%7%11%8%11%9%10%9%10%9%11%7%10%9%17%9%8%11%7%
Fred Thompson19%21%15%21%**16%15%24%13%13%20%13%20%18%15%27%19%22%22%18%14%21%22%17%24%18%22%17%15%21%20%21%17%16%18%22%21%13%14%23%26%14%24%2%20%14%24%26%
Gingrich6%6%4%7%**2%5%8%3%1%6%0%8%3%4%10%4%9%4%6%2%7%5%6%7%5%6%4%6%6%4%7%4%6%6%5%4%1%6%6%8%4%7%0%4%5%7%8%
Other9%9%8%9%**7%5%7%7%14%7%17%7%9%9%5%7%7%5%9%11%7%6%9%6%8%4%13%6%6%14%7%8%9%7%10%11%10%8%8%9%8%9%13%7%7%9%9%
Undecided7%5%9%5%**14%2%5%9%6%6%17%7%7%8%4%6%7%8%6%7%7%7%6%6%7%5%9%8%4%11%5%8%4%9%6%4%7%8%4%7%8%5%7%7%8%3%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%62%38%68%3%20%10%57%32%7%88%8%54%44%58%35%60%33%28%72%21%73%44%54%24%73%62%26%22%54%22%51%47%25%39%21%14%17%36%27%20%53%47%7%22%30%21%20%
 
If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?
763 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderRaceIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Clinton49%35%58%44%32%61%52%37%51%48%38%50%48%48%49%39%48%53%46%48%45%52%37%52%36%52%48%48%**37%51%47%49%42%52%57%45%48%50%43%56%49%48%45%50%46%48%56%
Obama24%31%20%20%55%23%24%32%21%27%21%24%19%26%25%27%25%22%25%25%28%20%30%22%28%22%23%25%**28%23%24%23%21%26%19%25%31%24%24%15%27%20%29%31%24%21%15%
Edwards14%19%11%20%6%7%13%12%15%15%15%15%17%14%15%11%15%9%11%17%15%15%14%15%21%14%10%18%**17%15%16%14%19%10%13%19%11%14%16%17%13%17%16%10%16%15%17%
Other9%12%7%11%2%9%8%18%12%5%23%6%13%8%8%21%8%16%15%7%8%11%16%7%14%8%16%6%**15%8%9%10%16%9%9%5%5%8%13%11%7%12%7%5%11%12%11%
Undecided3%2%4%5%5%1%3%1%2%4%3%4%2%4%4%1%4%0%3%4%5%1%3%4%2%4%3%3%**3%4%3%4%2%3%2%6%4%4%4%1%4%3%4%4%3%4%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%41%59%49%9%29%13%9%48%38%10%72%21%76%88%9%85%11%32%66%60%34%26%71%22%76%26%57%2%15%82%54%45%17%38%15%30%28%28%26%18%56%44%13%26%24%19%18%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.