Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17527
Republicans Make Their Move in Virginia's 9th District; GOP's Griffith Pulls Even with 15-Term Incumbent Democrat Boucher: A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia's 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and today, 7 days until votes are counted, vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term.

In a SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, it's Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Griffith's lead may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as even.

Among traditional midterm voters -- those who vote in most or all congressional elections -- Boucher is nominally ahead, by 3 to 5 points. But: among the group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, the Republican leads almost 2:1. The relative sizes of these groups will determine the winner. If the uniquely motivated 2010 voters walk-the-ballot-box walk, and don't just talk-the-pollster talk, the Republicans have a chance to snatch the seat. If the uniquely motivated voters aren't so motivated after all, Boucher keeps the seat.

Compared to 4 previous tracking polls, Independents have broken sharply Republican in the campaign's final week. The number of Republicans crossing over to vote for Boucher has steadily decreased, from 26% in July to 18% today. The number of higher-income voters voting for Griffith has steadily increased, from 43% in July to 49% today. Boucher's lead among women has evaporated from a once 23-point advantage. The older the electorate, the better Boucher's chances.

Filtering: 800 registered voters with home telephones in Virginia's 9th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/21/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day 11/02/10.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Morgan Griffith? Democrat Rick Boucher? Or Independent Jeremiah Heaton?
608 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Morgan Griffith (R)47%49%45%55%55%41%41%55%41%47%********47%75%12%54%68%28%15%80%4%44%47%57%44%46%61%17%35%44%49%54%38%30%63%23%49%32%43%49%
Rick Boucher (D)46%45%47%34%38%52%54%37%53%46%********45%18%84%35%24%66%78%13%92%44%47%31%49%49%36%58%57%51%42%41%50%59%29%72%45%59%49%45%
Jeremiah Heaton (I)4%5%4%9%3%4%2%6%3%4%********5%3%3%7%5%4%6%4%3%8%2%8%4%4%1%17%5%3%6%3%7%6%5%3%5%4%4%5%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%16%26%34%24%42%58%95%3%1%1%4%96%34%33%31%49%34%12%39%29%21%11%15%43%41%54%11%35%41%59%62%23%15%59%37%75%22%48%52%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.