Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17374

A Humbling Day for Pollsters in Washington State: In the election for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democrat Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi remain locked in a tight fight, according to SurveyUSA's newest poll, conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Murray 50%, Rossi 47% at this hour, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from a SurveyUSA KING-TV poll 3 weeks ago.

But: there is unique and in some ways unprecedented disagreement among pollsters as to where this contest stands, and anyone trying to digest these SurveyUSA results needs to know that within the past 72 hours, Elway has the Democrat up 15 points and Fox News has the Republican up 1 point. While it is possible to see 16 points of pollster disagreement on ballot measures and in low-turnout primaries, it is unusual to see so much variation in a high-profile, statewide general election. Pollsters Stuart Elway and Mark Blumenthal write thoughtfully about this. The New York Times describes Washington state as the Bermuda Triangle of polling.

In SurveyUSA data:
* Gender continues to be important; men vote for Rossi, women vote for Murray. SurveyUSA shows men more motivated to vote than women in 2010, in Washington state, but also in other geographies across the country.
* Age continues to be important: younger voters (who are harder to contact, and who are less likely to vote) prefer Rossi; older voters (who vote more reliably and who are easier to reach) prefer Murray.
* Independents break for the Republican, as they are breaking in most geographies across the country in 2010.
* Metro Seattle (which, as always, includes King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), is moving to Murray. Eastern Washington is moving to Rossi.

* Voters are split on whether Murray or Rossi will make better decisions about the economy.
* Voters are split on whether Murray or Rossi would be more influenced by lobbyists.
* Voters are split on whether Democrats or Republicans are more responsible for the national debt.
* By 6:5, voters think the health care law should be repealed.

* On Initiative 1082, on industrial insurance, any outcome is possible: 38% today are certain to vote 'Yes', 30% are certain to vote 'No', 32% are not yet certain. The movement is to 'No'. 2 months ago, 'Yes' led 4:1.
* On Initiative 1100, the 1st of 2 initiatives about liquor, any outcome is possible: 'Yes' today has 50%, 'No' today has 41%, but the movement is toward 'No'. 2 months ago, 'Yes' led 2:1.
* On Initiative 1105, the 2nd of 2 initiatives on liquor, momentum is against. Today, 'No' has 46%, 'Yes' has 42%, with the trend across multiple SurveyUSA polls moving to 'No . 2 months ago, 'Yes' led 2:1.

Filtering: 900 adults with home telephones in the state of Washington were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/11/10 through 10/14/10, using Random Digit Dial (RDD) sample from Survey Sampling Inc. Of the adults, 767 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 606 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day, 11/02/10, 18 days from now.

[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot for US Senate right now, would you vote for Republican Dino Rossi? Or, Democrat Patty Murray?

606 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Rossi (R)	47%	53%	41%	41%	54%	43%	45%	51%	44%	47%	**	**	46%	91%	6%	55%	91%	37%	9%	90%	7%	59%	37%	47%	47%	61%	48%	36%	78%	29%	53%	38%	44%	49%	46%	51%	60%	40%
Murray (D)	50%	44%	56%	53%	41%	56%	52%	45%	54%	50%	**	**	51%	7%	92%	41%	7%	60%	89%	7%	92%	37%	55%	50%	50%	36%	49%	61%	18%	68%	42%	60%	52%	49%	50%	47%	36%	57%
Undecided	3%	3%	3%	6%	4%	1%	3%	5%	2%	3%	**	**	3%	2%	2%	4%	2%	4%	1%	3%	1%	5%	8%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	4%	3%	5%	2%	5%	2%	4%	3%	4%	3%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	2%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	40%	21%	32%	38%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	21%	51%

Also on the ballot are several initiatives. On initiative 1082, which would allow employers to purchase private industrial insurance, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1082, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}

606 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Certain Yes	38%	44%	33%	34%	43%	41%	31%	41%	36%	37%	**	**	45%	50%	27%	42%	53%	38%	25%	54%	27%	38%	30%	40%	36%	40%	37%	39%	52%	32%	42%	35%	33%	39%	42%	38%	40%	38%
Certain No	30%	30%	30%	31%	24%	34%	32%	26%	33%	30%	**	**	25%	17%	40%	29%	17%	33%	39%	17%	41%	29%	32%	27%	33%	25%	34%	32%	16%	37%	28%	33%	36%	28%	28%	30%	25%	32%
Not Certain	32%	27%	37%	35%	33%	25%	37%	33%	30%	32%	**	**	30%	32%	33%	29%	30%	29%	37%	29%	31%	33%	38%	32%	31%	36%	29%	29%	32%	31%	30%	32%	31%	33%	30%	32%	35%	30%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners	100%	51%	49%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	2%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	40%	21%	32%	38%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	21%	51%

Also on the ballot are two initiatives about liquor. The first is initiative 1100. 1100 would close state liquor stores; authorize sale, distribution, and importation of spirits by private parties; and repeal certain requirements that govern the business operations of beer and wine distributers and producers. On initiative 1100, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1100, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}

606 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Certain Yes	50%	58%	43%	55%	54%	49%	44%	54%	47%	50%	**	**	52%	56%	43%	57%	58%	49%	45%	63%	44%	46%	41%	52%	48%	44%	45%	59%	50%	50%	57%	44%	43%	54%	51%	49%	46%	53%
Certain No	41%	35%	47%	38%	37%	42%	47%	37%	44%	42%	**	**	39%	35%	48%	35%	32%	44%	44%	28%	48%	46%	50%	39%	44%	45%	46%	35%	42%	42%	36%	47%	46%	38%	42%	43%	46%	38%
Not Certain	8%	7%	10%	7%	9%	9%	9%	8%	9%	8%	**	**	9%	8%	10%	8%	9%	7%	11%	9%	8%	8%	10%	9%	8%	11%	9%	6%	8%	8%	7%	9%	12%	8%	8%	7%	8%	9%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners	100%	51%	49%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	2%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	40%	21%	32%	38%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	21%	51%

The second liquor initiative is 1105. 1105 would close all state liquor stores and license private parties to sell or distribute spirits. It would revise laws concerning regulation, taxation and government revenues from distribution and sale of spirits. On initiative 1105, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1105, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}

606 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Certain Yes	42%	49%	34%	43%	44%	42%	37%	44%	40%	42%	**	**	38%	49%	33%	47%	50%	38%	40%	59%	31%	39%	34%	43%	40%	38%	40%	45%	45%	39%	49%	35%	36%	46%	40%	45%	37%	42%
Certain No	46%	41%	52%	43%	45%	47%	50%	44%	48%	46%	**	**	47%	41%	55%	40%	38%	51%	48%	31%	57%	49%	51%	46%	48%	48%	50%	44%	44%	49%	40%	52%	49%	43%	48%	43%	49%	47%
Not Certain	12%	10%	14%	13%	11%	11%	13%	12%	12%	12%	**	**	15%	10%	12%	13%	12%	10%	12%	10%	12%	12%	15%	11%	13%	14%	10%	11%	11%	12%	11%	13%	15%	11%	12%	12%	14%	11%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners	100%	51%	49%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	2%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	40%	21%	32%	38%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	21%	51%

5	Which candidate for U.S. Senate would make better decisions about the economy?

592 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Murray	46%	41%	51%	45%	38%	52%	51%	40%	51%	46%	**	**	48%	6%	86%	37%	6%	55%	83%	5%	87%	35%	43%	47%	45%	33%	45%	57%	17%	63%	38%	56%	46%	47%	46%	43%	32%	53%
Rossi	47%	52%	41%	44%	55%	41%	43%	52%	42%	47%	**	**	45%	90%	8%	54%	89%	36%	10%	88%	9%	56%	36%	48%	46%	60%	47%	37%	76%	30%	54%	38%	45%	47%	47%	51%	59%	39%
Not Sure	7%	7%	8%	11%	8%	7%	6%	9%	6%	7%	**	**	7%	3%	6%	10%	5%	8%	7%	7%	4%	9%	21%	5%	9%	7%	7%	7%	6%	7%	8%	6%	9%	6%	7%	6%	10%	7%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	1%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	40%	21%	32%	38%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	21%	51%

6	Which candidate for U.S. Senate would be more influenced by lobbyists?

590 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Murray	39%	45%	33%	40%	45%	36%	37%	43%	36%	38%	**	**	44%	70%	12%	44%	73%	29%	13%	74%	9%	45%	35%	41%	38%	52%	38%	31%	64%	25%	43%	34%	42%	39%	38%	42%	45%	36%
Rossi	45%	42%	47%	43%	40%	49%	46%	41%	48%	46%	**	**	37%	17%	72%	38%	14%	52%	76%	12%	77%	36%	40%	45%	44%	31%	45%	55%	20%	59%	39%	52%	43%	44%	47%	44%	34%	49%
Not Sure	16%	13%	19%	18%	15%	15%	17%	16%	16%	16%	**	**	19%	12%	16%	18%	13%	18%	10%	13%	14%	20%	25%	14%	18%	17%	17%	14%	16%	15%	18%	13%	15%	17%	15%	14%	21%	15%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	1%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	40%	21%	32%	38%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	20%	51%

7	Which party do you think is more responsible for the growing national debt?

588 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Democrats	42%	44%	39%	40%	46%	39%	41%	44%	40%	42%	**	**	43%	83%	7%	47%	82%	32%	8%	80%	8%	48%	38%	42%	41%	55%	41%	32%	69%	26%	49%	35%	36%	45%	43%	42%	54%	37%
Republicans	43%	41%	46%	49%	37%	47%	43%	41%	45%	43%	**	**	47%	11%	78%	32%	11%	49%	81%	11%	76%	32%	41%	42%	44%	26%	47%	53%	17%	59%	39%	49%	44%	42%	45%	45%	28%	48%
Not Sure	15%	15%	15%	11%	17%	14%	17%	15%	15%	15%	**	**	10%	6%	14%	21%	7%	19%	11%	9%	16%	20%	21%	15%	15%	18%	12%	15%	14%	15%	13%	17%	20%	14%	12%	13%	18%	15%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	1%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	40%	21%	32%	39%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	21%	51%

8	Should the changes to health care passed into law by Congress remain law? Or should they be repealed?

583 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/Ot	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Western	Eastern	Metro Se
Remain Law	40%	38%	42%	34%	35%	44%	45%	35%	44%	41%	**	**	31%	7%	72%	33%	6%	49%	74%	5%	82%	20%	28%	43%	36%	26%	40%	51%	15%	56%	35%	48%	35%	41%	43%	34%	33%	46%
Be Repealed	49%	56%	41%	47%	56%	45%	44%	53%	45%	49%	**	**	49%	86%	12%	57%	90%	39%	13%	93%	9%	59%	42%	49%	48%	64%	46%	39%	78%	31%	55%	40%	47%	50%	48%	54%	60%	41%
Not Sure	12%	6%	17%	19%	9%	11%	11%	12%	11%	11%	**	**	19%	6%	15%	10%	4%	12%	13%	3%	10%	21%	29%	8%	15%	10%	14%	10%	8%	13%	10%	12%	18%	9%	9%	12%	8%	13%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	50%	50%	14%	32%	30%	24%	46%	54%	87%	1%	5%	7%	27%	36%	32%	28%	41%	21%	32%	39%	21%	9%	53%	47%	32%	27%	41%	32%	61%	47%	46%	22%	41%	37%	28%	21%	51%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.