Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17374
 
A Humbling Day for Pollsters in Washington State: In the election for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democrat Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi remain locked in a tight fight, according to SurveyUSA's newest poll, conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Murray 50%, Rossi 47% at this hour, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from a SurveyUSA KING-TV poll 3 weeks ago.

But: there is unique and in some ways unprecedented disagreement among pollsters as to where this contest stands, and anyone trying to digest these SurveyUSA results needs to know that within the past 72 hours, Elway has the Democrat up 15 points and Fox News has the Republican up 1 point. While it is possible to see 16 points of pollster disagreement on ballot measures and in low-turnout primaries, it is unusual to see so much variation in a high-profile, statewide general election. Pollsters Stuart Elway and Mark Blumenthal write thoughtfully about this. The New York Times describes Washington state as the Bermuda Triangle of polling.

In SurveyUSA data:
* Gender continues to be important; men vote for Rossi, women vote for Murray. SurveyUSA shows men more motivated to vote than women in 2010, in Washington state, but also in other geographies across the country.
* Age continues to be important: younger voters (who are harder to contact, and who are less likely to vote) prefer Rossi; older voters (who vote more reliably and who are easier to reach) prefer Murray.
* Independents break for the Republican, as they are breaking in most geographies across the country in 2010.
* Metro Seattle (which, as always, includes King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), is moving to Murray. Eastern Washington is moving to Rossi.

* Voters are split on whether Murray or Rossi will make better decisions about the economy.
* Voters are split on whether Murray or Rossi would be more influenced by lobbyists.
* Voters are split on whether Democrats or Republicans are more responsible for the national debt.
* By 6:5, voters think the health care law should be repealed.

* On Initiative 1082, on industrial insurance, any outcome is possible: 38% today are certain to vote 'Yes', 30% are certain to vote 'No', 32% are not yet certain. The movement is to 'No'. 2 months ago, 'Yes' led 4:1.
* On Initiative 1100, the 1st of 2 initiatives about liquor, any outcome is possible: 'Yes' today has 50%, 'No' today has 41%, but the movement is toward 'No'. 2 months ago, 'Yes' led 2:1.
* On Initiative 1105, the 2nd of 2 initiatives on liquor, momentum is against. Today, 'No' has 46%, 'Yes' has 42%, with the trend across multiple SurveyUSA polls moving to 'No . 2 months ago, 'Yes' led 2:1.

 
Filtering: 900 adults with home telephones in the state of Washington were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/11/10 through 10/14/10, using Random Digit Dial (RDD) sample from Survey Sampling Inc. Of the adults, 767 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 606 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day, 11/02/10, 18 days from now.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot for US Senate right now, would you vote for Republican Dino Rossi? Or, Democrat Patty Murray?
606 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Rossi (R)47%53%41%41%54%43%45%51%44%47%****46%91%6%55%91%37%9%90%7%59%37%47%47%61%48%36%78%29%53%38%44%49%46%51%60%40%
Murray (D)50%44%56%53%41%56%52%45%54%50%****51%7%92%41%7%60%89%7%92%37%55%50%50%36%49%61%18%68%42%60%52%49%50%47%36%57%
Undecided3%3%3%6%4%1%3%5%2%3%****3%2%2%4%2%4%1%3%1%5%8%3%4%3%3%3%4%3%5%2%5%2%4%3%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%2%5%7%27%36%32%28%40%21%32%38%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%21%51%
 
Also on the ballot are several initiatives. On initiative 1082, which would allow employers to purchase private industrial insurance, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1082, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
606 Likely Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes38%44%33%34%43%41%31%41%36%37%****45%50%27%42%53%38%25%54%27%38%30%40%36%40%37%39%52%32%42%35%33%39%42%38%40%38%
Certain No30%30%30%31%24%34%32%26%33%30%****25%17%40%29%17%33%39%17%41%29%32%27%33%25%34%32%16%37%28%33%36%28%28%30%25%32%
Not Certain32%27%37%35%33%25%37%33%30%32%****30%32%33%29%30%29%37%29%31%33%38%32%31%36%29%29%32%31%30%32%31%33%30%32%35%30%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners100%51%49%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%2%5%7%27%36%32%28%40%21%32%38%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%21%51%
 
Also on the ballot are two initiatives about liquor. The first is initiative 1100. 1100 would close state liquor stores; authorize sale, distribution, and importation of spirits by private parties; and repeal certain requirements that govern the business operations of beer and wine distributers and producers. On initiative 1100, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1100, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
606 Likely Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes50%58%43%55%54%49%44%54%47%50%****52%56%43%57%58%49%45%63%44%46%41%52%48%44%45%59%50%50%57%44%43%54%51%49%46%53%
Certain No41%35%47%38%37%42%47%37%44%42%****39%35%48%35%32%44%44%28%48%46%50%39%44%45%46%35%42%42%36%47%46%38%42%43%46%38%
Not Certain8%7%10%7%9%9%9%8%9%8%****9%8%10%8%9%7%11%9%8%8%10%9%8%11%9%6%8%8%7%9%12%8%8%7%8%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners100%51%49%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%2%5%7%27%36%32%28%40%21%32%38%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%21%51%
 
The second liquor initiative is 1105. 1105 would close all state liquor stores and license private parties to sell or distribute spirits. It would revise laws concerning regulation, taxation and government revenues from distribution and sale of spirits. On initiative 1105, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1105, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
606 Likely Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes42%49%34%43%44%42%37%44%40%42%****38%49%33%47%50%38%40%59%31%39%34%43%40%38%40%45%45%39%49%35%36%46%40%45%37%42%
Certain No46%41%52%43%45%47%50%44%48%46%****47%41%55%40%38%51%48%31%57%49%51%46%48%48%50%44%44%49%40%52%49%43%48%43%49%47%
Not Certain12%10%14%13%11%11%13%12%12%12%****15%10%12%13%12%10%12%10%12%12%15%11%13%14%10%11%11%12%11%13%15%11%12%12%14%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners100%51%49%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%2%5%7%27%36%32%28%40%21%32%38%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%21%51%
 
5Which candidate for U.S. Senate would make better decisions about the economy?
592 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Murray46%41%51%45%38%52%51%40%51%46%****48%6%86%37%6%55%83%5%87%35%43%47%45%33%45%57%17%63%38%56%46%47%46%43%32%53%
Rossi47%52%41%44%55%41%43%52%42%47%****45%90%8%54%89%36%10%88%9%56%36%48%46%60%47%37%76%30%54%38%45%47%47%51%59%39%
Not Sure7%7%8%11%8%7%6%9%6%7%****7%3%6%10%5%8%7%7%4%9%21%5%9%7%7%7%6%7%8%6%9%6%7%6%10%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%1%5%7%27%36%32%28%40%21%32%38%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%21%51%
 
6Which candidate for U.S. Senate would be more influenced by lobbyists?
590 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Murray39%45%33%40%45%36%37%43%36%38%****44%70%12%44%73%29%13%74%9%45%35%41%38%52%38%31%64%25%43%34%42%39%38%42%45%36%
Rossi45%42%47%43%40%49%46%41%48%46%****37%17%72%38%14%52%76%12%77%36%40%45%44%31%45%55%20%59%39%52%43%44%47%44%34%49%
Not Sure16%13%19%18%15%15%17%16%16%16%****19%12%16%18%13%18%10%13%14%20%25%14%18%17%17%14%16%15%18%13%15%17%15%14%21%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%1%5%7%27%36%32%28%40%21%32%38%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%20%51%
 
7Which party do you think is more responsible for the growing national debt?
588 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Democrats42%44%39%40%46%39%41%44%40%42%****43%83%7%47%82%32%8%80%8%48%38%42%41%55%41%32%69%26%49%35%36%45%43%42%54%37%
Republicans43%41%46%49%37%47%43%41%45%43%****47%11%78%32%11%49%81%11%76%32%41%42%44%26%47%53%17%59%39%49%44%42%45%45%28%48%
Not Sure15%15%15%11%17%14%17%15%15%15%****10%6%14%21%7%19%11%9%16%20%21%15%15%18%12%15%14%15%13%17%20%14%12%13%18%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%1%5%7%27%36%32%28%40%21%32%39%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%21%51%
 
8Should the changes to health care passed into law by Congress remain law? Or should they be repealed?
583 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Remain Law40%38%42%34%35%44%45%35%44%41%****31%7%72%33%6%49%74%5%82%20%28%43%36%26%40%51%15%56%35%48%35%41%43%34%33%46%
Be Repealed49%56%41%47%56%45%44%53%45%49%****49%86%12%57%90%39%13%93%9%59%42%49%48%64%46%39%78%31%55%40%47%50%48%54%60%41%
Not Sure12%6%17%19%9%11%11%12%11%11%****19%6%15%10%4%12%13%3%10%21%29%8%15%10%14%10%8%13%10%12%18%9%9%12%8%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%14%32%30%24%46%54%87%1%5%7%27%36%32%28%41%21%32%39%21%9%53%47%32%27%41%32%61%47%46%22%41%37%28%21%51%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.