Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17374 |
A Humbling Day for Pollsters in Washington State:
In the election for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democrat Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi remain locked in a tight fight, according to SurveyUSA's newest poll, conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Murray 50%, Rossi 47% at this hour, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from a SurveyUSA KING-TV poll 3 weeks ago.
But: there is unique and in some ways unprecedented disagreement among pollsters as to where this contest stands, and anyone trying to digest these SurveyUSA results needs to know that within the past 72 hours, Elway has the Democrat up 15 points and Fox News has the Republican up 1 point. While it is possible to see 16 points of pollster disagreement on ballot measures and in low-turnout primaries, it is unusual to see so much variation in a high-profile, statewide general election. Pollsters Stuart Elway and Mark Blumenthal write thoughtfully about this. The New York Times describes Washington state as the Bermuda Triangle of polling.
In SurveyUSA data:
* Voters are split on whether Murray or Rossi will make better decisions about the economy.
* On Initiative 1082, on industrial insurance, any outcome is possible: 38% today are certain to vote 'Yes', 30% are certain to vote 'No', 32% are not yet certain. The movement is to 'No'. 2 months ago, 'Yes' led 4:1. |
Filtering: 900 adults with home telephones in the state of Washington were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/11/10 through 10/14/10, using Random Digit Dial (RDD) sample from Survey Sampling Inc. Of the adults, 767 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 606 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day, 11/02/10, 18 days from now. |
![]() | [Candidate names rotated] If you were filling out your ballot for US Senate right now, would you vote for Republican Dino Rossi? Or, Democrat Patty Murray? |
606 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Rossi (R) | 47% | 53% | 41% | 41% | 54% | 43% | 45% | 51% | 44% | 47% | ** | ** | 46% | 91% | 6% | 55% | 91% | 37% | 9% | 90% | 7% | 59% | 37% | 47% | 47% | 61% | 48% | 36% | 78% | 29% | 53% | 38% | 44% | 49% | 46% | 51% | 60% | 40% |
Murray (D) | 50% | 44% | 56% | 53% | 41% | 56% | 52% | 45% | 54% | 50% | ** | ** | 51% | 7% | 92% | 41% | 7% | 60% | 89% | 7% | 92% | 37% | 55% | 50% | 50% | 36% | 49% | 61% | 18% | 68% | 42% | 60% | 52% | 49% | 50% | 47% | 36% | 57% |
Undecided | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 32% | 38% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 51% |
606 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Certain Yes | 38% | 44% | 33% | 34% | 43% | 41% | 31% | 41% | 36% | 37% | ** | ** | 45% | 50% | 27% | 42% | 53% | 38% | 25% | 54% | 27% | 38% | 30% | 40% | 36% | 40% | 37% | 39% | 52% | 32% | 42% | 35% | 33% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 40% | 38% |
Certain No | 30% | 30% | 30% | 31% | 24% | 34% | 32% | 26% | 33% | 30% | ** | ** | 25% | 17% | 40% | 29% | 17% | 33% | 39% | 17% | 41% | 29% | 32% | 27% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 32% | 16% | 37% | 28% | 33% | 36% | 28% | 28% | 30% | 25% | 32% |
Not Certain | 32% | 27% | 37% | 35% | 33% | 25% | 37% | 33% | 30% | 32% | ** | ** | 30% | 32% | 33% | 29% | 30% | 29% | 37% | 29% | 31% | 33% | 38% | 32% | 31% | 36% | 29% | 29% | 32% | 31% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 30% | 32% | 35% | 30% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 32% | 38% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 51% |
606 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Certain Yes | 50% | 58% | 43% | 55% | 54% | 49% | 44% | 54% | 47% | 50% | ** | ** | 52% | 56% | 43% | 57% | 58% | 49% | 45% | 63% | 44% | 46% | 41% | 52% | 48% | 44% | 45% | 59% | 50% | 50% | 57% | 44% | 43% | 54% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 53% |
Certain No | 41% | 35% | 47% | 38% | 37% | 42% | 47% | 37% | 44% | 42% | ** | ** | 39% | 35% | 48% | 35% | 32% | 44% | 44% | 28% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 39% | 44% | 45% | 46% | 35% | 42% | 42% | 36% | 47% | 46% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 46% | 38% |
Not Certain | 8% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | ** | ** | 9% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 32% | 38% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 51% |
606 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Certain Yes | 42% | 49% | 34% | 43% | 44% | 42% | 37% | 44% | 40% | 42% | ** | ** | 38% | 49% | 33% | 47% | 50% | 38% | 40% | 59% | 31% | 39% | 34% | 43% | 40% | 38% | 40% | 45% | 45% | 39% | 49% | 35% | 36% | 46% | 40% | 45% | 37% | 42% |
Certain No | 46% | 41% | 52% | 43% | 45% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 48% | 46% | ** | ** | 47% | 41% | 55% | 40% | 38% | 51% | 48% | 31% | 57% | 49% | 51% | 46% | 48% | 48% | 50% | 44% | 44% | 49% | 40% | 52% | 49% | 43% | 48% | 43% | 49% | 47% |
Not Certain | 12% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% | ** | ** | 15% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 11% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 32% | 38% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 51% |
5 | Which candidate for U.S. Senate would make better decisions about the economy? |
592 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Murray | 46% | 41% | 51% | 45% | 38% | 52% | 51% | 40% | 51% | 46% | ** | ** | 48% | 6% | 86% | 37% | 6% | 55% | 83% | 5% | 87% | 35% | 43% | 47% | 45% | 33% | 45% | 57% | 17% | 63% | 38% | 56% | 46% | 47% | 46% | 43% | 32% | 53% |
Rossi | 47% | 52% | 41% | 44% | 55% | 41% | 43% | 52% | 42% | 47% | ** | ** | 45% | 90% | 8% | 54% | 89% | 36% | 10% | 88% | 9% | 56% | 36% | 48% | 46% | 60% | 47% | 37% | 76% | 30% | 54% | 38% | 45% | 47% | 47% | 51% | 59% | 39% |
Not Sure | 7% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 7% | ** | ** | 7% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 21% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 7% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 32% | 38% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 51% |
6 | Which candidate for U.S. Senate would be more influenced by lobbyists? |
590 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Murray | 39% | 45% | 33% | 40% | 45% | 36% | 37% | 43% | 36% | 38% | ** | ** | 44% | 70% | 12% | 44% | 73% | 29% | 13% | 74% | 9% | 45% | 35% | 41% | 38% | 52% | 38% | 31% | 64% | 25% | 43% | 34% | 42% | 39% | 38% | 42% | 45% | 36% |
Rossi | 45% | 42% | 47% | 43% | 40% | 49% | 46% | 41% | 48% | 46% | ** | ** | 37% | 17% | 72% | 38% | 14% | 52% | 76% | 12% | 77% | 36% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 31% | 45% | 55% | 20% | 59% | 39% | 52% | 43% | 44% | 47% | 44% | 34% | 49% |
Not Sure | 16% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 16% | ** | ** | 19% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 13% | 18% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 20% | 25% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 14% | 21% | 15% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 32% | 38% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 20% | 51% |
7 | Which party do you think is more responsible for the growing national debt? |
588 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Democrats | 42% | 44% | 39% | 40% | 46% | 39% | 41% | 44% | 40% | 42% | ** | ** | 43% | 83% | 7% | 47% | 82% | 32% | 8% | 80% | 8% | 48% | 38% | 42% | 41% | 55% | 41% | 32% | 69% | 26% | 49% | 35% | 36% | 45% | 43% | 42% | 54% | 37% |
Republicans | 43% | 41% | 46% | 49% | 37% | 47% | 43% | 41% | 45% | 43% | ** | ** | 47% | 11% | 78% | 32% | 11% | 49% | 81% | 11% | 76% | 32% | 41% | 42% | 44% | 26% | 47% | 53% | 17% | 59% | 39% | 49% | 44% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 28% | 48% |
Not Sure | 15% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 15% | ** | ** | 10% | 6% | 14% | 21% | 7% | 19% | 11% | 9% | 16% | 20% | 21% | 15% | 15% | 18% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 17% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 18% | 15% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 21% | 32% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 51% |
8 | Should the changes to health care passed into law by Congress remain law? Or should they be repealed? |
583 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
Remain Law | 40% | 38% | 42% | 34% | 35% | 44% | 45% | 35% | 44% | 41% | ** | ** | 31% | 7% | 72% | 33% | 6% | 49% | 74% | 5% | 82% | 20% | 28% | 43% | 36% | 26% | 40% | 51% | 15% | 56% | 35% | 48% | 35% | 41% | 43% | 34% | 33% | 46% |
Be Repealed | 49% | 56% | 41% | 47% | 56% | 45% | 44% | 53% | 45% | 49% | ** | ** | 49% | 86% | 12% | 57% | 90% | 39% | 13% | 93% | 9% | 59% | 42% | 49% | 48% | 64% | 46% | 39% | 78% | 31% | 55% | 40% | 47% | 50% | 48% | 54% | 60% | 41% |
Not Sure | 12% | 6% | 17% | 19% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | ** | ** | 19% | 6% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 13% | 3% | 10% | 21% | 29% | 8% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 13% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 14% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 28% | 41% | 21% | 32% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 32% | 61% | 47% | 46% | 22% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 51% |