Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14326
Incumbent Democrat Leads in IN-9's Regularly Scheduled House Contest: In an election for US House of Representatives in Indiana's 9th Congressional District today, 09/11/08, incumbent Democrat Baron Hill leads Republican Mike Sodrel by 11 points, 50% to 39%. Libertarian Eric Schansberg today takes 5% of the vote; 5% are undecided. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, Hill is up 2 points; Sodrel is down 3.

Among women, Hill leads by 18 points, up from 9 points six weeks ago; among men, Hill leads by 5, unchanged from six weeks ago. Among voters age 18-49, Hill leads by 5; among those 50+, Hill leads by 19. Both Hill and Sodrel hold 8 in 10 of their partisan voters; independents, 15% of the electorate, favor Hill by 6 points, but 1 in 5 independents choose Libertarian Schansberg.

Hill and Sodrel have run against each other in three previous elections; in the last, two years ago, Schansberg also ran, making this year's race an exact rematch of 2006, when Hill Beat Sodrel by 5 points to re-take his seat. Full history of the contest:

  • 1998: Hill first elected, beating Republican Jean Leising, 51% to 48%
  • 2000: Hill re-elected over Republican Michael Bailey, 54% to 44%.
  • 2002: Hill re-elected over Republican Mike Sodrel, 51% to 46%.
  • 2004: Sodrel elected, beating Hill, by a margin of 1,425 votes.
  • 2006: Hill elected, taking seat back from Sodrel, 50% to 45%.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Indiana's 9th Congressional District 09/08/08 through 09/10/08; of the adults, 773 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 603 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Mike Sodrel? Democrat Baron Hill? Or Libertarian Eric Schansberg?
603 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your Mind
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad
Mike Sodrel (R)39%42%36%35%43%36%41%40%38%40%******76%10%33%70%22%9%47%31%29%52%20%23%44%
Baron Hill (D)50%47%54%42%47%59%53%45%57%49%******15%86%39%21%65%86%44%60%56%36%73%52%50%
Eric Schansberg (L)5%7%3%12%5%2%2%8%2%6%******4%1%19%4%8%3%5%5%7%7%3%12%3%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%22%32%27%18%54%46%95%2%1%1%38%42%15%39%34%12%54%23%23%59%38%21%76%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.