| Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #18731 |
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In Key Battleground state of PA, Clinton Instead of Biden on Democratic Ticket Turns a 1-point Lead over Romney into a 9-point Lead:
SurveyUSA looks at the two most likely Republican nominees, alone and paired as a Republican ticket, running against the existing Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and a new Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Here is the progression of match-ups, and the results:
* Obama 44%
* Obama 47%
* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 46%
* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 50%
* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 46%
* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 50% Let's look at women: The Obama-Biden ticket gets 49% of female votes against both Republican tickets, Romney-Gingrich and Gingrich-Romney. But, an Obama-Clinton ticket gets 57% of the female vote against both tickets. Said another way: With Biden on the ticket, Obama carries PA women by an average of 10 points. With Clinton on the ticket, Obama carries PA women by an average of 23 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 10 points. Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes, which are critical to the Democrats' chances of holding the White House in 2012. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of PA adults 11/10/11. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (76% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (24% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device. |
| 1 | Now I'm going to ask you about the election for president. There are a number of questions that might sound similar, but each question is in fact different. First, If there were an election for president today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Income | Catholic? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| Obama (D) | 44% | 38% | 49% | 48% | 43% | 42% | 42% | 45% | 42% | 40% | 82% | 45% | 43% | 17% | 74% | 34% | 22% | 48% | 17% | 52% | 76% | 48% | 41% | 43% | 46% | 44% | 48% | 37% | 39% | 30% | 34% | 56% |
| Romney (R) | 44% | 50% | 39% | 35% | 49% | 46% | 49% | 42% | 47% | 48% | 14% | 38% | 47% | 75% | 20% | 45% | 71% | 40% | 73% | 35% | 16% | 40% | 47% | 46% | 43% | 45% | 41% | 53% | 44% | 53% | 55% | 33% |
| Undecided | 12% | 11% | 12% | 17% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 4% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 21% | 58% | 42% | 86% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 31% | 38% | 30% | 11% | 83% | 34% | 45% | 18% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 29% | 69% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 39% |
| 2 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Income | Catholic? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| Obama (D) | 47% | 43% | 50% | 50% | 46% | 44% | 46% | 48% | 45% | 43% | 78% | 48% | 46% | 16% | 74% | 43% | 19% | 52% | 17% | 58% | 75% | 48% | 43% | 50% | 48% | 47% | 46% | 40% | 45% | 30% | 38% | 60% |
| Gingrich (R) | 40% | 46% | 35% | 32% | 40% | 46% | 46% | 36% | 46% | 43% | 18% | 34% | 42% | 72% | 17% | 37% | 73% | 35% | 72% | 26% | 17% | 38% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 40% | 38% | 46% | 37% | 54% | 52% | 29% |
| Undecided | 13% | 11% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 10% | 8% | 16% | 9% | 14% | 4% | 19% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 20% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 9% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 21% | 58% | 42% | 86% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 31% | 38% | 30% | 11% | 83% | 34% | 45% | 18% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 29% | 69% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 39% |
| 3 | OK, listen carefully, what if your choice was between Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican Ticket of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Income | Catholic? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| Obama/Biden (D) | 46% | 42% | 49% | 50% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 48% | 43% | 43% | 76% | 51% | 45% | 15% | 75% | 41% | 18% | 51% | 16% | 56% | 79% | 48% | 43% | 49% | 49% | 45% | 47% | 38% | 39% | 31% | 36% | 60% |
| Romney/Gingrich (R) | 45% | 49% | 41% | 38% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 42% | 48% | 47% | 18% | 41% | 46% | 79% | 20% | 42% | 76% | 40% | 77% | 33% | 17% | 39% | 49% | 46% | 44% | 44% | 42% | 52% | 45% | 55% | 54% | 33% |
| Undecided | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 16% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 21% | 58% | 42% | 86% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 31% | 38% | 30% | 11% | 83% | 34% | 45% | 18% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 29% | 69% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 39% |
| 4 | OK, what if your choice was between Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the Republican Ticket of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Income | Catholic? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| Obama/Clinton (D) | 50% | 42% | 57% | 53% | 49% | 49% | 47% | 51% | 48% | 46% | 82% | 51% | 49% | 18% | 80% | 43% | 24% | 54% | 20% | 60% | 81% | 54% | 47% | 48% | 52% | 50% | 46% | 43% | 43% | 34% | 42% | 63% |
| Romney/Gingrich (R) | 41% | 49% | 35% | 35% | 42% | 45% | 46% | 39% | 45% | 45% | 14% | 37% | 43% | 74% | 16% | 41% | 69% | 37% | 72% | 30% | 13% | 35% | 44% | 45% | 40% | 41% | 43% | 48% | 41% | 54% | 52% | 29% |
| Undecided | 9% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 16% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 6% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 21% | 58% | 42% | 86% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 31% | 38% | 30% | 11% | 83% | 34% | 45% | 18% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 29% | 69% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 39% |
| 5 | Last two pairings..., what if your choice was between Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican Ticket of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Income | Catholic? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| Obama/Biden (D) | 46% | 43% | 49% | 51% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 48% | 44% | 43% | 77% | 49% | 45% | 16% | 74% | 42% | 22% | 51% | 17% | 56% | 79% | 49% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 46% | 45% | 40% | 44% | 32% | 35% | 59% |
| Gingrich/Romney (R) | 42% | 46% | 37% | 32% | 45% | 47% | 45% | 38% | 46% | 45% | 14% | 36% | 44% | 76% | 18% | 37% | 71% | 37% | 73% | 29% | 14% | 37% | 45% | 43% | 42% | 41% | 37% | 49% | 38% | 52% | 54% | 31% |
| Undecided | 12% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 21% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 14% | 6% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 17% | 11% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 21% | 58% | 42% | 86% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 31% | 38% | 30% | 11% | 83% | 34% | 45% | 18% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 29% | 69% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 39% |
| 6 | OK, what if your choice was between the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the Republican Ticket of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Income | Catholic? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| Obama/Clinton (D) | 50% | 41% | 57% | 52% | 50% | 48% | 47% | 51% | 48% | 47% | 79% | 51% | 49% | 17% | 80% | 44% | 21% | 55% | 19% | 61% | 79% | 53% | 48% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 33% | 39% | 63% |
| Gingrich/Romney (R) | 40% | 47% | 33% | 33% | 40% | 43% | 45% | 37% | 44% | 42% | 16% | 35% | 41% | 74% | 14% | 38% | 71% | 35% | 72% | 28% | 13% | 36% | 42% | 42% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 46% | 37% | 53% | 51% | 29% |
| Undecided | 11% | 11% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 18% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 21% | 58% | 42% | 86% | 9% | 24% | 76% | 31% | 38% | 30% | 11% | 83% | 34% | 45% | 18% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 29% | 69% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 39% |