Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13304
Alabama Democratic Primary is Photo Finish, Men With Obama, Women with Clinton: 24 hours till votes are counted in the Alabama Democratic Primary, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied, 49% for Obama, 47% for Clinton, within the survey's 4.0 percent margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, Obama may have the slightest momentum among male voters, where he now leads 2:1. Among female voters, Clinton still leads by 21 points, a 55-point Gender Gap. White voters back Clinton by 37 points. Black voters back Obama by 55 points. Clinton and Obama tie among Democrats. Obama leads among Independents. Northern AL votes for Clinton. Southern AL votes for Obama. The more men and the more African Americans who vote, the better Obama's chances. The more women and the more whites who vote, the better Clinton's chances. SurveyUSA's likely voters are 42% male, 42% black, 58% female, 56% white.
Filtering: 2,000 Alabama adults were interviewed 02/02/08 and 02/03/08. All interviews completed before start of Super Bowl on 02/03/08. Of the adults, 1,787 were registered to vote. Of them, 619 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be certain to vote at the precinct on Primary Day. Early voting: Mobile County and Baldwin County voters had the option, but not the obligation, to vote early, to avoid a conflict on 02/05/08 with Mardi Gras. 11% of those who participated in this survey had already voted.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
638 Likely And Actual VotersAllAlready VotedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsActual VLikely VMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratNorthernSouthern
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%11%89%42%58%21%29%31%18%51%49%56%42%1%1%7%82%9%15%39%21%64%24%12%38%57%16%84%38%3%15%23%2%6%8%4%62%38%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.