Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19677 |
In Oregon, Obama Under-Performs 2008, But Still Sits 9 Points Atop Romney in 2012; 4 Ballot Measures Examined:
In an election for President of the United States in Oregon today, 09/13/12, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 50% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Obama carried Oregon by 16 points in 2008, but leads by 9 points 5 weeks till 2012 voting in Oregon begins. Of Mitt Romney supporters, half are voting "against Barack Obama" more than they are voting "for Mitt Romney." This is a window into how tepid enthusiasm is for Romney in Oregon. By contrast: Of Obama supporters, 80% are voting "for Barack Obama" compared to 17% who are voting "against Mitt Romney." The gender gap in Oregon is as large as anywhere in the USA: men favor Romney by 3 points, women favor Obama by 21 points, a 24-point gap. Obama leads in every age group, leads among Independents and leads among Moderates. Romney ties Obama among voters who have attended some college, but Obama trumps Romney among voters who have not been to college, and voters who have a 4-year college degree. Obama leads among voters earning less than $40,000 a year and those earning more than $80,000 a year; Romney narrowly leads among middle-income voters. Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, is fiercely fought, and could go either way. Today, the measure is narrowly opposed, 41% to 37%. Republicans oppose 4:1, Democrats favor 2:1. Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, trails 43% to 27%. Republicans, Democrats, Independents, conservatives, moderates, liberals, men and women all oppose. Younger voters split, older voters oppose. Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, trails 39% to 28%. Voters are not yet focused on Measure 85, which deals with a corporate tax "kicker." 65% of likely voters are "not certain" how they will vote on 85. Among voters who are certain, 21% vote No, 14% vote Yes. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 09/10/12 through 09/13/12. Of the adults, 633 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
![]() | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
552 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Mitt Romney (R) | 41% | 45% | 36% | 33% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 37% | 42% | 84% | 8% | 35% | 82% | 35% | 6% | 39% | 44% | 38% | 35% | 46% | 38% | 39% | 44% |
Barack Obama (D) | 50% | 42% | 57% | 52% | 47% | 48% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 45% | 51% | 10% | 87% | 42% | 11% | 50% | 89% | 49% | 43% | 56% | 55% | 43% | 54% | 51% | 47% |
Other | 5% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
Undecided | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 32% | 21% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 72% | 34% | 41% | 26% | 29% | 41% | 27% | 15% | 43% | 43% | 37% | 38% | 25% | 66% | 34% |
![]() | Is this more a vote FOR Mitt Romney or AGAINST Barack Obama? |
225 Romney Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 6.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
For Mitt Romney | 47% | 48% | 46% | 45% | 44% | 48% | 52% | 45% | 50% | 39% | 50% | 54% | 41% | 29% | 49% | 45% | ** | 52% | 53% | 39% | 51% | 44% | 48% | 47% | 48% |
Against Barack Obama | 50% | 50% | 51% | 50% | 56% | 49% | 46% | 53% | 48% | 59% | 47% | 44% | 52% | 70% | 49% | 52% | ** | 48% | 46% | 58% | 45% | 55% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ** | 0% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Romney Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 19% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 26% | 74% | 69% | 8% | 22% | 59% | 36% | 4% | 14% | 46% | 40% | 32% | 43% | 24% | 64% | 36% |
![]() | Is this more a vote FOR Barack Obama or AGAINST Mitt Romney? |
274 Obama Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
For Barack Obama | 80% | 83% | 79% | 71% | 90% | 75% | 87% | 80% | 80% | 77% | 81% | 56% | 84% | 74% | 73% | 74% | 87% | 76% | 78% | 83% | 78% | 82% | 81% | 82% | 77% |
Against Mitt Romney | 17% | 15% | 18% | 22% | 10% | 22% | 11% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 16% | 38% | 13% | 25% | 17% | 21% | 12% | 17% | 20% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 20% |
Not Sure | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Obama Voters | 100% | 40% | 60% | 25% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 47% | 53% | 26% | 74% | 7% | 72% | 22% | 7% | 42% | 48% | 15% | 37% | 48% | 40% | 33% | 27% | 68% | 32% |
552 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 37% | 42% | 33% | 47% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 42% | 33% | 45% | 34% | 18% | 47% | 46% | 18% | 35% | 61% | 36% | 42% | 32% | 45% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 38% |
No | 41% | 40% | 41% | 33% | 39% | 39% | 53% | 36% | 45% | 31% | 44% | 65% | 24% | 34% | 68% | 39% | 14% | 34% | 40% | 43% | 35% | 42% | 45% | 41% | 39% |
Not Certain | 22% | 18% | 27% | 20% | 25% | 22% | 23% | 22% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 16% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 26% | 26% | 29% | 18% | 25% | 20% | 20% | 29% | 22% | 23% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 32% | 21% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 72% | 34% | 41% | 26% | 29% | 41% | 27% | 15% | 43% | 43% | 37% | 38% | 25% | 66% | 34% |
![]() | On Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
552 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 27% | 32% | 21% | 31% | 26% | 27% | 22% | 29% | 25% | 36% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 32% | 25% | 29% | 25% | 34% | 31% | 19% | 30% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 30% |
No | 43% | 44% | 42% | 35% | 38% | 44% | 53% | 37% | 48% | 32% | 47% | 49% | 40% | 39% | 50% | 37% | 45% | 34% | 43% | 45% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 43% | 43% |
Not Certain | 31% | 24% | 37% | 33% | 36% | 29% | 25% | 35% | 28% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 32% | 25% | 36% | 30% | 30% | 32% | 33% | 27% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 32% | 21% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 72% | 34% | 41% | 26% | 29% | 41% | 27% | 15% | 43% | 43% | 37% | 38% | 25% | 66% | 34% |
![]() | On Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
552 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 28% | 32% | 24% | 32% | 30% | 28% | 21% | 31% | 25% | 39% | 24% | 23% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 32% | 27% | 35% | 32% | 22% | 29% | 29% | 26% | 29% | 27% |
No | 39% | 41% | 37% | 32% | 31% | 41% | 51% | 32% | 45% | 29% | 43% | 45% | 37% | 34% | 47% | 32% | 40% | 33% | 38% | 42% | 36% | 39% | 44% | 40% | 37% |
Not Certain | 33% | 27% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 30% | 28% | 37% | 29% | 33% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 29% | 36% | 33% | 31% | 31% | 36% | 34% | 33% | 30% | 32% | 36% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 32% | 21% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 72% | 34% | 41% | 26% | 29% | 41% | 27% | 15% | 43% | 43% | 37% | 38% | 25% | 66% | 34% |
![]() | On Measure 85, which is about a corporate tax "kicker," are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
552 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 14% | 20% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 16% | 10% | 17% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 17% |
No | 21% | 21% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 23% | 22% | 18% | 23% | 17% | 22% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 23% | 22% | 24% | 17% | 23% | 21% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
Not Certain | 65% | 59% | 71% | 70% | 66% | 63% | 62% | 68% | 63% | 65% | 65% | 63% | 68% | 63% | 63% | 65% | 66% | 61% | 64% | 68% | 61% | 65% | 69% | 67% | 61% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 32% | 21% | 47% | 53% | 28% | 72% | 34% | 41% | 26% | 29% | 41% | 27% | 15% | 43% | 43% | 37% | 38% | 25% | 66% | 34% |