| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23787 |
|
3 Weeks Till the Filing Deadline, With Others Still Able to Jump on the Train, Democrat Applegate and GOP Chavez Are Out Front in in Fight To Fill Republican Darrell Issa's Open House Seat in California's 49th Congressional District: Democrat Doug Applegate stands toe-to-toe with Republican Rocky Chavez, in the Top 2 California primary to replace GOP Congressman Darrell Issa in CA-49. According to polling conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for KGTV-TV and the Union-Tribune in San Diego, it's Applegate 18%, Chavez 17%, Republican Diane Harkey at 10%, Democrat Mike Levin at 8%, Republican Kristin Gaspar at 7% and Democrat Sara Jacobs at 5%, with others further back. 27% of likely voters today are undecided, understandable given that additional candidates have until 03/09/18 to jump into the race. If the total number of Republican votes today are added up and the total number of Democratic votes today are added up, Republicans lead Democrats 38% to 35%. The top two finishers in the primary advance to the 11/06/18 general election, even if the top two finishers are both from the same political party. Issa, one of a number of high-profile Republican members of Congress to voluntarily leave office during Mr. Trump's first term, won reelection in 2016 by defeating Applegate by a handful of votes. * Applegate's voters are focused on President Trump. * Chavez' voters are focused on the economy. * Harkey's supporters are focused on building a wall between the United States and Mexico. * Levin's supporters are focused on healthcare. * Mr. Trump's Net Job Approval in CA-49 is Minus 5: 46% of voters approve of the job he is doing as President, 51% disapprove. * Issa's Net Job Approval in CA-49 is also Minus 5: 44% of voters approve of the job Issa is doing in the U.S. House of Representatives; 49% disapprove. Filtering and context: Using voter-list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 775 registered voters from CA-49 Saturday 02/10/18 through Tuesday 02/13/18. In the middle of the field period for this survey, Issa was directed to testify in a lawsuit involving another member of the US Congress, though it is unclear if or to what extent this unexpected development may have influenced respondents to this survey. Of the 775 registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 510 who are likely to vote in the 06/05/18 Top-2 primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a landline telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their landline phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a landline phone (32% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell-phone numbers, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview. |
 | If the primary election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 49th Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican Rocky Chavez? Republican Kristin Gaspar? Republican Diane Harkey? Republican Brian Maryott? Republican Joshua Schoonover? Democrat Doug Applegate? Democrat Sara Jacobs? Democrat Paul Kerr? Democrat Mike Levin? Democrat Christina Prejean? Libertarian Joshua Hancock? Peace and Freedom Party candidatte Jordan Mills? Or some other candidate? |
| 510 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Rocky Chavez (R) | 17% | 17% | 16% | 5% | 29% | 11% | 21% | 15% | 26% | 31% | 6% | 11% | 25% | 17% | 4% | 22% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 30% | 9% | 29% | 6% | 28% | 7% | 29% | 4% | 29% | 5% | 14% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 15% | 5% | 22% |
| Kristin Gaspar (R) | 7% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 0% | 16% | 2% | 12% | 2% | 12% | 2% | 13% | 3% | 14% | 2% | 14% | 1% | 13% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 10% |
| Diane Harkey (R) | 10% | 10% | 10% | 20% | 2% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 20% | 2% | 7% | 18% | 9% | 0% | 28% | 2% | 9% | 0% | 12% | 4% | 21% | 0% | 21% | 2% | 22% | 0% | 20% | 1% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 12% |
| Brian Maryott (R) | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Joshua Schoonover (R) | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Doug Applegate (D) | 18% | 18% | 19% | 12% | 12% | 19% | 23% | 17% | 24% | 5% | 33% | 19% | 4% | 25% | 27% | 10% | 20% | 24% | 19% | 3% | 32% | 2% | 33% | 4% | 33% | 3% | 36% | 5% | 37% | 21% | 15% | 20% | 23% | 15% | 20% | 13% | 21% |
| Sara Jacobs (D) | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 10% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 9% | 13% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Paul Kerr (D) | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Mike Levin (D) | 8% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 11% | 15% | 0% | 10% | 6% | 15% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 16% | 1% | 15% | 1% | 17% | 2% | 16% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 10% |
| Christina Prejean (D) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Joshua Hancock (L) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Jordan Mills (PFP) | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Other | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Undecided | 27% | 26% | 28% | 39% | 33% | 33% | 14% | 28% | 22% | 19% | 25% | 38% | 29% | 20% | 37% | 13% | 40% | 21% | 40% | 28% | 23% | 23% | 29% | 21% | 28% | 21% | 27% | 21% | 24% | 22% | 25% | 29% | 22% | 20% | 31% | 66% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12% | 17% | 37% | 33% | 79% | 16% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 23% | 21% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 23% | 46% | 51% | 44% | 49% | 44% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 5% | 26% | 69% | 13% | 25% | 63% | 32% | 68% |
 | Which one of the following issues will be most important in determining how you vote in this election? Whether or not a border wall should be built? The DREAM Act and DACA recipients? Recent changes to tax laws? Recent changes to healthcare laws? The economy? The job the President is doing? Or some other issue? |
| 510 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Border Wall | 21% | 23% | 19% | 29% | 24% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 29% | 36% | 8% | 18% | 33% | 22% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 39% | 6% | 36% | 8% | 38% | 6% | 36% | 7% | 5% | 21% | 20% | 15% | 24% | 18% | 11% | 26% |
| DREAM Act And DACA | 14% | 12% | 17% | 13% | 20% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 17% | 9% | 20% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 24% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 18% | 8% | 18% | 9% | 19% | 9% | 19% | 27% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 21% | 13% | 21% | 11% |
| Changes To Tax Laws | 12% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 9% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Changes To Healthcare | 7% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 11% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Economy | 11% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 20% | 5% | 8% | 17% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 19% | 6% | 19% | 5% | 18% | 3% | 17% | 2% | 8% | 17% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 12% |
| Job The President Is Doing | 23% | 22% | 25% | 10% | 16% | 26% | 29% | 25% | 15% | 13% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 25% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 9% | 37% | 9% | 39% | 9% | 40% | 10% | 41% | 30% | 16% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 23% | 21% | 24% |
| Other | 7% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 4% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12% | 17% | 37% | 33% | 79% | 16% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 23% | 21% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 23% | 46% | 51% | 44% | 49% | 44% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 5% | 26% | 69% | 13% | 25% | 63% | 32% | 68% |
 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? |
| 510 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 46% | 51% | 41% | 35% | 51% | 45% | 48% | 45% | 49% | 85% | 8% | 38% | 87% | 36% | 3% | 85% | 31% | 52% | 20% | 75% | 18% | 100% | 0% | 85% | 12% | 92% | 2% | 82% | 8% | 48% | 53% | 41% | 37% | 47% | 45% | 36% | 50% |
| Disapprove | 51% | 46% | 55% | 65% | 45% | 49% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 13% | 90% | 55% | 10% | 59% | 97% | 13% | 63% | 48% | 78% | 25% | 81% | 0% | 100% | 11% | 86% | 6% | 96% | 13% | 90% | 48% | 45% | 55% | 60% | 49% | 52% | 59% | 47% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12% | 17% | 37% | 33% | 79% | 16% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 23% | 21% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 23% | 46% | 51% | 44% | 49% | 44% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 5% | 26% | 69% | 13% | 25% | 63% | 32% | 68% |
 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Darrell Issa is doing as US Representative? |
| 510 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 44% | 48% | 39% | 44% | 42% | 39% | 50% | 44% | 43% | 76% | 11% | 39% | 78% | 37% | 2% | 74% | 26% | 50% | 29% | 71% | 17% | 81% | 10% | 100% | 0% | 81% | 7% | 83% | 4% | 50% | 51% | 38% | 31% | 45% | 42% | 32% | 49% |
| Disapprove | 49% | 48% | 50% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 45% | 49% | 51% | 15% | 83% | 54% | 16% | 56% | 87% | 19% | 62% | 48% | 55% | 23% | 81% | 13% | 83% | 0% | 100% | 11% | 85% | 9% | 93% | 39% | 39% | 55% | 60% | 47% | 51% | 57% | 45% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 4% | 11% | 5% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 2% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12% | 17% | 37% | 33% | 79% | 16% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 23% | 21% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 23% | 46% | 51% | 44% | 49% | 44% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 5% | 26% | 69% | 13% | 25% | 63% | 32% | 68% |