| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14591 |
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PA Men Tiptoe Back To McCain, But PA Women Want None Of It -- Obama Maintains Double-Digit Keystone Advantage:
In an election for President of the United States in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania, the Columbus Day weekend brings zero good news for Republican John McCain, who today trails Democrat Barack Obama by the same 15 points that he did one week ago, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Today, Obama 55%, McCain 40%, identical to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 7 days ago. Week-on-week, McCain made slight inroads among men, where he cut into Obama's lead, but that is offset by ground McCain lost among women. Most remarkable: when interviewing began one week ago for the 10/07/08 SurveyUSA poll, the Dow Jones Average was at 10,325. When interviewing began for the 10/14/08 poll, the Dow Jones Average was at 8,451. Over 7 days in which the Dow lost 1,874 points, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain gained a point, nor lost a point, in SurveyUSA polling in Pennsylvania.
Obama maintains an overwhelming advantage in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia. Obama maintains a slight advantage in Northeast PA, which includes Scranton. The contest remains tied in Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, and in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown. McCain continues to lead in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg. 1 in 10 voters have the potential to switch from one candidate to the other between now and election day, if you combine the "undecided" voters with those who tell SurveyUSA that theirs is not a "firm choice." |
| Filtering: 1,300 state of PA adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/11/08 through 10/13/08. Of them, 1,182 were registered to vote. Of them, 516 were administered this version of SurveyUSA's election poll questionnaire and were included in the data here reported. Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes. John Kerry carried the state by 2.5 points in 2004. Al Gore carried the state by 4 points in 2000. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 516 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| McCain (R) | 40% | 46% | 35% | 31% | 45% | 37% | 47% | 39% | 42% | 37% | 45% | 42% | 44% | 18% | ** | ** | 76% | 18% | 35% | 81% | 32% | 11% | 42% | 38% | 36% | 43% | 48% | 46% | 48% | 56% | 43% | 29% |
| Obama (D) | 55% | 50% | 59% | 62% | 53% | 58% | 48% | 56% | 53% | 57% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 80% | ** | ** | 19% | 79% | 53% | 15% | 63% | 84% | 52% | 58% | 60% | 53% | 42% | 47% | 48% | 40% | 51% | 68% |
| Other | 4% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 0% | ** | ** | 4% | 2% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Undecided | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 46% | 54% | 22% | 32% | 24% | 21% | 54% | 46% | 47% | 11% | 42% | 86% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 35% | 54% | 10% | 25% | 39% | 16% | 47% | 53% | 39% | 61% | 5% | 23% | 7% | 13% | 11% | 40% |
| 2 | Is that a firm choice? Or could you change your mind? |
| 491 Who Vote Mccain or Obama | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| Firm Choice | 91% | 90% | 91% | 96% | 86% | 94% | 88% | 90% | 91% | 91% | 87% | 92% | 90% | 96% | ** | ** | 91% | 92% | 84% | 94% | 87% | 93% | 90% | 91% | 92% | 90% | ** | 94% | 93% | 91% | 86% | 89% |
| Could Change Your Mind | 9% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 14% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 4% | ** | ** | 9% | 8% | 16% | 6% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 10% | ** | 6% | 7% | 9% | 14% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Vote Mccain or Obama | 100% | 47% | 53% | 22% | 33% | 24% | 21% | 54% | 46% | 47% | 11% | 43% | 86% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 35% | 55% | 10% | 26% | 39% | 17% | 46% | 54% | 39% | 61% | 5% | 23% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 41% |
| 3 | If you were standing in the voting booth right now ... and you had to decide ... would you vote for ... (choices rotated) McCain? Or Obama? |
| 6 Who Are Undecided | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 40.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| McCain | 22% | 0% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 100% | 0% | 38% | 0% | 100% | 19% | 25% | 0% | ** | ** | 26% | 12% | 65% | 40% | 37% | ** | 15% | 27% | 43% | 17% | ** | 0% | ** | 0% | 38% | 30% |
| Obama | 31% | 0% | 40% | 100% | 0% | 47% | 0% | 27% | 34% | 47% | 0% | 30% | 30% | 37% | ** | ** | 26% | 36% | 35% | 0% | 26% | ** | 11% | 46% | 11% | 57% | ** | 0% | ** | 100% | 0% | 37% |
| Undecided | 47% | 100% | 32% | 0% | 100% | 38% | 0% | 73% | 28% | 53% | 0% | 51% | 45% | 63% | ** | ** | 49% | 52% | 0% | 60% | 37% | ** | 74% | 26% | 46% | 27% | ** | 100% | ** | 0% | 62% | 33% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Are Undecided | 100% | 22% | 78% | 11% | 31% | 42% | 15% | 42% | 58% | 24% | 9% | 67% | 88% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 54% | 14% | 16% | 42% | 0% | 44% | 56% | 48% | 52% | 0% | 18% | 4% | 11% | 24% | 43% |