| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24093 |
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In First Look at Hypothetical General Election Match-Ups for Governor of Georgia, Either Republican, Kemp or Cagle, Has Ever-So-Slight Edge Over Democrat Abrams: 15 weeks until Georgia elects a new Governor, Democrat Stacey Abrams trails by a nominal 2 points whichever Republican --- Casey Cagle or Brian Kemp --- wins this Tuesday's 07/24/18 primary runoff, according to SurveyUSA's latest poll conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. If Secretary of State Kemp secures the Republican nomination, he edges former House Minority Leader Abrams 46% to 44% in a hypothetical head-to-head contest today. If Lt. Governor Cagle secures the Republican nomination, he edges Abrams 45% to 43% in a hypothetical head-to-head contest today. Men back the Republican nominee, whichever candidate gets the nod. Kemp and Cagle both lead Abrams, among men, by 15 points. Women back Democrat Abrams, who leads by 9 points if Cagle is her opponent and who leads by 12 points if Kemp is her opponent. Abrams, who is black, leads 15:1 among African American voters if Kemp is on the ballot and leads 17:1 among African Americans if Cagle is on the ballot. Black turnout will alter the outcome of the general election one way or the other. The larger the black turnout, relative to the white turnout, the more Abrams has the chance to outperform these first-look, very early poll numbers. The more motivated white voters are in the Fall, the better the Republican nominee will do. In urban areas, Abrams leads 2:1. In rural areas, the Republican nominee leads 5:3. In suburban areas, every vote is vital. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,950 adults from the state of Georgia 07/15/18 through 07/19/18. Of the adults, 2,423 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,199 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/18 general election. This research was conducted online. |
| 1 | If the November election for Georgia governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Casey Cagle and Democrat Stacey Abrams, who would you vote for? |
| 1199 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Casey Cagle (R) | 45% | 52% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 51% | 47% | 37% | 49% | 62% | 5% | 22% | ** | 83% | 3% | 41% | 81% | 29% | 2% | 43% | 45% | 45% | 36% | 49% | 48% | 30% | 46% | 52% | 37% | 52% | 45% |
| Stacey Abrams (D) | 43% | 37% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 39% | 39% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 87% | 59% | ** | 5% | 92% | 36% | 10% | 54% | 91% | 36% | 43% | 45% | 50% | 41% | 38% | 61% | 43% | 32% | 52% | 34% | 44% |
| Undecided | 12% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 19% | ** | 11% | 5% | 22% | 9% | 17% | 6% | 21% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 15% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 11% | 23% | 38% | 29% | 33% | 67% | 68% | 24% | 5% | 3% | 43% | 36% | 19% | 42% | 34% | 20% | 16% | 35% | 49% | 30% | 38% | 33% | 14% | 59% | 27% | 31% | 37% | 32% |
| 2 | If the November election for Georgia governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams, who would you vote for? |
| 1199 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Brian Kemp (R) | 46% | 53% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 51% | 49% | 38% | 50% | 63% | 6% | 15% | ** | 86% | 1% | 45% | 83% | 29% | 3% | 44% | 45% | 47% | 37% | 51% | 49% | 30% | 46% | 55% | 37% | 55% | 45% |
| Stacey Abrams (D) | 44% | 38% | 51% | 51% | 49% | 40% | 44% | 50% | 41% | 27% | 88% | 69% | ** | 6% | 95% | 37% | 9% | 59% | 92% | 39% | 45% | 45% | 52% | 41% | 41% | 60% | 45% | 34% | 52% | 37% | 45% |
| Undecided | 10% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 16% | ** | 8% | 4% | 17% | 8% | 12% | 5% | 16% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 11% | 23% | 38% | 29% | 33% | 67% | 68% | 24% | 5% | 3% | 43% | 36% | 19% | 42% | 34% | 20% | 16% | 35% | 49% | 30% | 38% | 33% | 14% | 59% | 27% | 31% | 37% | 32% |