Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10413
NM1 House Seat 'Flips' to Democrats: In an election in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District today, 10/16/06, Democrat challenger Patrica Madrid tops Republican incumbent Heather Wilson by 8 points, 53% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV Albuquerque. Since an identical SurveyUSA KOB-TV poll released 9/21/06, Madrid has gained 7 points and Wilson has lost 6 points. Wilson had led by 5, now trails by 8, a 13-point swing. Madrid leads by 16 points among women. The race is tied among men. Wilson gets 85% of Republican votes. Madrid gets 79% of Democrat votes. Independents favor Madrid 55% to 42%. In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in NM1 has changed from a 5-point Democrat advantage to a 16-point Democrat advantage. See the supplemental analysis box below. Wilson was first elected to Congress in a special election in June 1998. In 5 elections, she has never received more than 55% of the vote. The election is in 22 days, on 11/7/06.
Analysis Common To All SurveyUSA Congressional Polls Released 10/16/06: Today, 10/16/06, SurveyUSA releases election polls in 4 Congressional Districts: Arizona 5, California 50, Minnesota 2, and New Mexico 1. In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:
1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.
It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.
Filtering: 800 adults from New Mexico's 1st Congressional district were interviewed 10/13/06 - 10/15/06. Of them, 687 were registered to vote. Of them, 470 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Heather Wilson? Or Democrat Patricia Madrid?
470 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Job ApprovaGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Wilson (R)45%50%40%38%42%48%52%52%**34%**85%18%42%87%37%10%45%50%40%43%46%46%42%92%14%34%42%42%50%52%
Madrid (D)53%50%56%59%55%51%44%46%**63%**13%79%55%10%62%89%48%47%59%56%51%52%57%6%84%60%56%57%48%44%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%23%32%26%19%60%3%32%5%34%50%16%27%45%18%12%35%23%31%22%44%30%38%59%8%25%29%18%19%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.