| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14609 |
|
Tight Fight to Capture Wyoming's Open At-Large House Seat; Republican Has Edge But Libertarian Complicates:
In an election for US House of Representatives from Wyoming's one at-large Congressional District today, 10/21/08, two weeks till votes are counted, Republican Cynthia Lummis edges and Democrat Gary Trauner 50% to 44%, with Libertarian W. David Herbert at 4%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Incumbent republican Barbara Cubin is not seeking re-election after 7 terms. Cubin received 50% in 2006, exactly where Republican Lummis polls today.
Lummis, a woman, leads among men. Lummis and Trauner tie among women. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district 2:1. 22% of Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat, compared to 9% of Democrats who cross-over to vote Republican. Independents split, with the Libertarian Herbert at 9%. Lummis leads among voters age 18 to 49. Lummis and Traunertie tie among voters age 50+. Retiring Republican Cubin has Minus 30 Favorability. Republican Lummis has Plus 6 Favorability. Democrat Trauner has Plus 6 Favorability. John McCain has Plus 25 Favorability. Barack Obama has Minus 15 Favorability. McCain carries Wyoming 58% to 37% today, and captures the state's 3 Electoral Votes. Obama outperforms John Kerry by 8 points; Kerry got 29% in 2004. Trauner runs 7 points stronger than Obama today. 42% approve of the job President Bush is doing, an unusually high number compared to other Congressional Districts. 12% approve of the job the US Congress is doing. |
| Filtering: 750 adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/18/08 and 10/19/08. Of them 668 were registered to vote. Of them 604 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day. Richard Cheney, the Vice President of the United States, represented the Wyoming at large congressional district from 1979 to 1989. |
| 1 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| McCain (R) | 58% | 62% | 54% | 62% | 61% | 51% | 59% | 61% | 54% | 57% | ** | ** | ** | 83% | 11% | 57% | 87% | 39% | 12% | 55% | 58% | 93% | 4% | 36% | 5% | 95% | 56% | 91% | 21% | 58% | 21% | 90% | 78% | 95% | 23% | 39% | 67% | 55% | ** | 24% | 51% | 96% | ** | ** | 81% | 94% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 92% | 20% |
| Obama (D) | 37% | 32% | 42% | 34% | 34% | 44% | 37% | 34% | 41% | 38% | ** | ** | ** | 12% | 86% | 36% | 8% | 56% | 83% | 41% | 37% | 5% | 93% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 21% | 7% | 75% | 32% | 74% | 5% | 17% | 2% | 71% | 59% | 28% | 40% | ** | 74% | 48% | 2% | ** | ** | 7% | 3% | 94% | 0% | 100% | 6% | 75% |
| Other | 3% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | ** | 1% | 1% | 2% | ** | ** | 10% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ** | 1% | 0% | 1% | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 2 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Cynthia Lummis? Democrat Gary Trauner? Or Libertarian W. David Herbert? |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Cynthia Lummis (R) | 50% | 53% | 46% | 47% | 55% | 44% | 51% | 52% | 47% | 50% | ** | ** | ** | 74% | 9% | 41% | 76% | 33% | 10% | 52% | 49% | 76% | 8% | 37% | 8% | 79% | 50% | 96% | 2% | 45% | 5% | 92% | 68% | 82% | 21% | 27% | 57% | 45% | ** | 22% | 44% | 90% | ** | ** | 75% | 78% | 8% | 79% | 8% | 100% | 0% |
| Gary Trauner (D) | 44% | 41% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 50% | 43% | 41% | 48% | 44% | ** | ** | ** | 22% | 86% | 46% | 17% | 62% | 83% | 45% | 44% | 19% | 86% | 55% | 88% | 14% | 36% | 3% | 92% | 44% | 93% | 1% | 20% | 13% | 73% | 66% | 37% | 48% | ** | 74% | 51% | 7% | ** | ** | 17% | 15% | 89% | 15% | 88% | 0% | 100% |
| W. David Herbert (L) | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 1% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | ** | 3% | 2% | 1% | ** | ** | 7% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| Undecided | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | 2% | 3% | 2% | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 3 | Is your opinion of John McCain ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of John McCain? |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Favorable | 56% | 58% | 54% | 58% | 59% | 50% | 56% | 59% | 52% | 56% | ** | ** | ** | 78% | 13% | 54% | 81% | 40% | 13% | 51% | 56% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 87% | 51% | 86% | 22% | 56% | 24% | 85% | 71% | 90% | 24% | 39% | 64% | 53% | ** | 33% | 51% | 86% | ** | ** | 74% | 87% | 9% | 90% | 7% | 85% | 24% |
| Unfavorable | 31% | 27% | 34% | 26% | 29% | 36% | 29% | 28% | 33% | 31% | ** | ** | ** | 9% | 73% | 29% | 9% | 42% | 75% | 36% | 30% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 72% | 5% | 13% | 5% | 66% | 19% | 60% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 58% | 48% | 24% | 32% | ** | 53% | 40% | 6% | ** | ** | 10% | 4% | 74% | 2% | 76% | 5% | 60% |
| Neutral | 12% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 12% | ** | ** | ** | 11% | 13% | 16% | 9% | 16% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 14% | 8% | 36% | 8% | 11% | 24% | 15% | 7% | 19% | 7% | 17% | 9% | 12% | 14% | ** | 11% | 10% | 8% | ** | ** | 16% | 8% | 16% | 8% | 16% | 9% | 16% |
| No Opinion | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | ** | 2% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 4 | Is your opinion of Barack Obama ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Barack Obama? |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Favorable | 38% | 32% | 43% | 33% | 35% | 45% | 36% | 34% | 41% | 38% | ** | ** | ** | 14% | 83% | 39% | 11% | 56% | 78% | 39% | 37% | 9% | 88% | 43% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 74% | 31% | 76% | 5% | 17% | 4% | 70% | 64% | 28% | 40% | ** | 74% | 48% | 2% | ** | ** | 8% | 6% | 90% | 3% | 94% | 6% | 75% |
| Unfavorable | 53% | 57% | 49% | 52% | 56% | 48% | 56% | 54% | 51% | 53% | ** | ** | ** | 75% | 11% | 51% | 80% | 34% | 14% | 50% | 54% | 83% | 8% | 32% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 84% | 20% | 49% | 17% | 86% | 69% | 87% | 21% | 28% | 62% | 48% | ** | 18% | 45% | 96% | ** | ** | 87% | 85% | 4% | 87% | 1% | 84% | 17% |
| Neutral | 8% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 8% | ** | ** | ** | 10% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 6% | 5% | 18% | 6% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 11% | ** | 8% | 7% | 2% | ** | ** | 4% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| No Opinion | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ** | 1% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 5 | If your opinion of Cynthia Lummis is... |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Favorable | 41% | 46% | 37% | 39% | 45% | 36% | 44% | 43% | 39% | 41% | ** | ** | ** | 61% | 8% | 33% | 64% | 27% | 9% | 45% | 40% | 63% | 6% | 26% | 10% | 65% | 29% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 80% | 44% | 67% | 19% | 26% | 47% | 36% | ** | 18% | 39% | 78% | ** | ** | 58% | 64% | 8% | 64% | 7% | 79% | 3% |
| Unfavorable | 35% | 35% | 35% | 29% | 33% | 42% | 35% | 31% | 39% | 35% | ** | ** | ** | 17% | 71% | 32% | 13% | 48% | 70% | 33% | 35% | 14% | 75% | 32% | 69% | 13% | 22% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 73% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 60% | 54% | 30% | 38% | ** | 61% | 38% | 8% | ** | ** | 15% | 12% | 69% | 12% | 70% | 1% | 73% |
| Neutral | 19% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 19% | ** | ** | ** | 19% | 14% | 29% | 18% | 20% | 13% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 12% | 36% | 16% | 17% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 17% | 13% | 40% | 20% | 16% | 14% | 18% | 21% | ** | 17% | 16% | 11% | ** | ** | 23% | 20% | 16% | 19% | 16% | 17% | 19% |
| No Opinion | 5% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | ** | 4% | 6% | 3% | ** | ** | 4% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 6 | If your opinion of Gary Trauner is... |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Favorable | 42% | 39% | 45% | 39% | 38% | 49% | 42% | 38% | 46% | 42% | ** | ** | ** | 21% | 82% | 42% | 17% | 58% | 81% | 40% | 42% | 18% | 82% | 50% | 85% | 14% | 31% | 7% | 87% | 38% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 70% | 67% | 34% | 45% | ** | 74% | 51% | 8% | ** | ** | 17% | 15% | 83% | 15% | 83% | 4% | 89% |
| Unfavorable | 36% | 42% | 31% | 35% | 42% | 33% | 33% | 39% | 33% | 36% | ** | ** | ** | 55% | 8% | 25% | 59% | 21% | 6% | 38% | 36% | 56% | 8% | 22% | 4% | 59% | 36% | 71% | 6% | 25% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 61% | 16% | 19% | 43% | 31% | ** | 14% | 31% | 71% | ** | ** | 59% | 57% | 7% | 57% | 5% | 68% | 1% |
| Neutral | 17% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 17% | ** | ** | ** | 20% | 6% | 25% | 19% | 17% | 8% | 15% | 17% | 21% | 5% | 25% | 8% | 22% | 26% | 18% | 6% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 22% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 19% | ** | 8% | 12% | 15% | ** | ** | 19% | 23% | 7% | 22% | 7% | 23% | 8% |
| No Opinion | 5% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | ** | 4% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | ** | 4% | 5% | 6% | ** | ** | 5% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 7 | If your opinion of Barbara Cubin is... |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Favorable | 23% | 25% | 22% | 28% | 24% | 18% | 25% | 26% | 21% | 24% | ** | ** | ** | 35% | 7% | 16% | 39% | 13% | 7% | 24% | 23% | 34% | 8% | 18% | 8% | 34% | 28% | 43% | 6% | 19% | 8% | 41% | 27% | 40% | 10% | 20% | 25% | 21% | ** | 15% | 22% | 38% | ** | ** | 31% | 34% | 6% | 34% | 7% | 40% | 6% |
| Unfavorable | 53% | 54% | 53% | 40% | 55% | 62% | 53% | 49% | 59% | 54% | ** | ** | ** | 39% | 80% | 57% | 33% | 68% | 81% | 46% | 55% | 36% | 83% | 60% | 79% | 36% | 51% | 29% | 87% | 49% | 82% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 75% | 56% | 52% | 56% | ** | 69% | 62% | 30% | ** | ** | 41% | 37% | 81% | 35% | 80% | 30% | 82% |
| Neutral | 19% | 17% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 16% | 19% | 21% | 17% | 18% | ** | ** | ** | 23% | 9% | 22% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 22% | 19% | 26% | 5% | 19% | 10% | 26% | 16% | 26% | 6% | 29% | 9% | 25% | 33% | 24% | 12% | 21% | 20% | 21% | ** | 11% | 13% | 26% | ** | ** | 26% | 25% | 9% | 26% | 9% | 26% | 10% |
| No Opinion | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | ** | 5% | 3% | 6% | ** | ** | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 8 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Approve | 42% | 45% | 40% | 50% | 43% | 38% | 40% | 46% | 39% | 42% | ** | ** | ** | 63% | 7% | 35% | 70% | 24% | 7% | 41% | 43% | 68% | 4% | 25% | 5% | 70% | 45% | 69% | 12% | 44% | 13% | 70% | 55% | 100% | 0% | 36% | 47% | 36% | ** | 16% | 42% | 77% | ** | ** | 65% | 70% | 3% | 69% | 3% | 70% | 13% |
| Disapprove | 50% | 49% | 52% | 43% | 50% | 56% | 50% | 47% | 54% | 51% | ** | ** | ** | 28% | 90% | 57% | 22% | 69% | 92% | 52% | 50% | 21% | 95% | 67% | 94% | 20% | 45% | 23% | 86% | 44% | 84% | 22% | 29% | 0% | 100% | 62% | 45% | 56% | ** | 78% | 56% | 13% | ** | ** | 22% | 20% | 96% | 20% | 96% | 21% | 83% |
| Not Sure | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 7% | ** | ** | ** | 9% | 3% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 8% | ** | 6% | 2% | 10% | ** | ** | 13% | 10% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 9% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 9 | Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job the United States Congress is doing? |
| 604 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Approve | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 12% | ** | ** | ** | 10% | 17% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 22% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 9% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 18% | 8% | 18% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 100% | 0% | 12% | ** | 19% | 16% | 6% | ** | ** | 2% | 7% | 20% | 8% | 18% | 6% | 17% |
| Disapprove | 75% | 80% | 70% | 68% | 76% | 77% | 77% | 73% | 77% | 74% | ** | ** | ** | 82% | 58% | 80% | 85% | 73% | 49% | 73% | 75% | 86% | 59% | 70% | 57% | 88% | 78% | 86% | 64% | 72% | 60% | 89% | 81% | 83% | 67% | 0% | 100% | 75% | ** | 50% | 77% | 89% | ** | ** | 91% | 86% | 56% | 86% | 56% | 86% | 62% |
| Not Sure | 14% | 8% | 19% | 20% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 14% | ** | ** | ** | 8% | 25% | 11% | 7% | 15% | 29% | 14% | 14% | 6% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 15% | 7% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 14% | ** | 31% | 8% | 5% | ** | ** | 7% | 6% | 24% | 6% | 25% | 7% | 20% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 16% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 38% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 12% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 10 | Which one issue should congress focus on ahead of all others? (choices rotated) The economy? The environment? Health care? Iraq? Terrorism? The price of gasoline? Education? Immigration? Or some other issue? |
| 594 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Economy | 53% | 53% | 52% | 50% | 53% | 53% | 55% | 52% | 53% | 53% | ** | ** | ** | 51% | 56% | 51% | 45% | 61% | 51% | 49% | 53% | 49% | 55% | 60% | 56% | 47% | 68% | 46% | 58% | 60% | 57% | 45% | 61% | 45% | 59% | 53% | 52% | 100% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 49% | 58% | 49% | 57% | 48% | 58% |
| Environment | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 10% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 7% |
| Health Care | 9% | 6% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 12% | 16% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 16% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 16% | 8% | 16% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 15% | 15% | 6% | 0% | ** | 100% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 4% | 19% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 16% |
| Iraq | 7% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | ** | ** | ** | 6% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 0% | ** | 0% | 100% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 8% |
| Terrorism | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | 14% | 2% | 8% | 18% | 4% | 4% | 13% | 9% | 15% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 18% | 3% | 19% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 19% | 9% | 18% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 100% | ** | ** | 0% | 16% | 1% | 16% | 1% | 18% | 2% |
| Gasoline | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 1% |
| Education | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| Immigration | 9% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | ** | ** | ** | 11% | 2% | 11% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 11% | 2% | 14% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 10% | 4% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 10% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 100% | 13% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 13% | 3% |
| Other | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 33% | 29% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 17% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 30% | 13% | 37% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 37% | 17% | 42% | 50% | 11% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |
| 11 | Which party do you think is best equipped to handle the economy? (choices rotated) The Republicans? Or The Democrats? |
| 593 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | Opinion Of Mccain | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Lummis | Opinion Of Trauner | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For Preside | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | McCain | Obama | Lummis | Trauner | |
| Republicans | 57% | 61% | 53% | 64% | 59% | 50% | 56% | 61% | 52% | 56% | ** | ** | ** | 82% | 11% | 51% | 87% | 38% | 13% | 58% | 57% | 89% | 8% | 35% | 8% | 91% | 56% | 88% | 20% | 61% | 20% | 89% | 77% | 94% | 22% | 36% | 66% | 53% | ** | 22% | 52% | 93% | ** | ** | 87% | 100% | 0% | 92% | 5% | 90% | 20% |
| Democrats | 36% | 33% | 39% | 31% | 33% | 44% | 37% | 32% | 41% | 37% | ** | ** | ** | 12% | 85% | 35% | 8% | 54% | 82% | 38% | 36% | 6% | 88% | 46% | 87% | 3% | 24% | 7% | 72% | 31% | 72% | 7% | 15% | 2% | 69% | 62% | 27% | 40% | ** | 72% | 43% | 2% | ** | ** | 6% | 0% | 100% | 2% | 91% | 6% | 73% |
| Not Sure | 7% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | ** | ** | ** | 6% | 4% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 18% | 5% | 6% | 20% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 7% | ** | 6% | 5% | 5% | ** | ** | 7% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 33% | 29% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 93% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 55% | 28% | 17% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 86% | 56% | 30% | 13% | 37% | 53% | 8% | 41% | 35% | 19% | 42% | 36% | 17% | 43% | 50% | 11% | 75% | 53% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 57% | 36% | 58% | 37% | 50% | 44% |