Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14735
 
In Minnesota, the Shorter Obama's Coattails, the Worse It Looks for Al Franken: 60 hours until votes are counted in Minnesota, Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain is back inside the margin of sampling error, according to SurveyUSA's final look at one of 2008's most interesting states. Obama 49%, McCain 46%, in interviewing underwritten by KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth and KAAL-TV Rochester, 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Obama led by 6 two weeks ago, now by 3. The late break to the GOP is occurring among men and seniors. For each point McCain gains, the better it looks for Republican Norm Coleman's US Senate re-election bid. In 4 pre-election tracking polls, SurveyUSA has never shown Franken ahead. Other pollsters have. The contest is close, fiercely fought, and Franken may in fact win. But in SurveyUSA's final numbers, it's Coleman 44%, Franken 39%. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, though down from 19% a month ago to 16% today, is a true spoiler. Barkley's supporters are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, and more likely to be pro-choice than pro-life. If Barkley's supporters turn-out to vote but at the last instant turn-away from Barkley, Franken may out-perform these numbers. Minnesota's constitutional amendment, which would protect wetlands by raising the sales tax for 25 years, is too-close-to-call. Of those with an opinion, half tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote 'Yes,' half tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote 'No.' But more Minnesotans are not certain how they will vote on the amendment than are in either the 'Yes' group or the 'No' group. Any outcome is possible. 800 adults yielded 747 registered voters and 669 likely voters.
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
669 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAbortionIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
McCain (R)46%49%43%40%52%42%48%47%44%47%47%44%46%******88%9%47%83%36%8%45%46%72%22%40%48%44%48%52%44%
Obama (D)49%45%53%56%44%52%47%49%50%48%47%50%48%******10%88%42%14%58%88%51%48%23%72%54%47%52%43%43%50%
Other3%4%2%2%3%4%4%2%4%3%4%3%3%******2%1%7%3%3%2%3%3%3%3%4%2%2%5%5%3%
Undecided2%2%2%3%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%******0%2%4%1%3%1%2%3%1%3%2%2%2%4%0%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%23%33%25%19%57%43%51%10%39%93%2%2%3%32%39%25%31%45%17%48%52%45%52%35%65%57%14%15%13%
 
If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Norm Coleman? DFL candidate Al Franken? Or Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley?
669 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAbortionIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Norm Coleman (R)44%48%41%37%50%41%48%45%44%44%47%43%45%******83%10%46%78%35%10%44%44%69%23%39%47%44%49%47%38%
Al Franken (DFL)39%35%42%44%33%42%37%38%40%38%39%40%38%******9%74%26%11%42%77%40%38%17%58%45%36%41%32%35%42%
Dean Barkley (IP)16%17%16%17%16%16%15%17%15%17%13%16%17%******8%15%27%11%22%11%15%17%13%19%15%17%14%19%18%19%
Undecided1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%******0%1%2%0%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%23%33%25%19%57%43%51%10%39%93%2%2%3%32%39%25%31%45%17%48%52%45%52%35%65%57%14%15%13%
 
3Also on the ballot is a constitutional amendment. The amendment would raise the sales tax for 25 years to protect drinking water, wetlands and wildlife habitats. Are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
669 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAbortionIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Yes29%31%27%26%26%33%31%26%32%26%32%31%29%******21%37%27%18%31%42%32%26%21%36%32%27%31%30%20%27%
No32%35%29%28%31%34%35%30%35%30%33%34%31%******41%21%39%49%29%15%30%34%40%25%31%32%29%36%39%32%
Not Certain40%34%45%47%43%33%34%44%34%44%35%35%40%******39%43%34%33%40%43%38%40%39%39%37%41%40%34%41%41%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%23%33%25%19%57%43%51%10%39%93%2%2%3%32%39%25%31%45%17%48%52%45%52%35%65%57%14%15%13%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.