| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18584 |
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8 Months to San Diego Mayor Primary, DeMaio and Filner Tied, Others Viable:
In an election for Mayor of San Diego today, 09/27/11, Carl DeMaio and Bob Filner tie, with Bonnie Dumanis and Nathan Fletcher not far behind, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV.
* City Council Member DeMaio, at 25%, is strong among Conservatives, men, older voters and whites. |
| Cell phones included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 San Diego adults 09/23/11 through 09/27/11. Of them, 794 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 588 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/05/12 primary. If no one candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a 11/06/12 general election. Incumbent Mayor Jerry Sanders is term-limited. This survey was conducted multimode. Respondents with a home telephone were interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents without a home telephone (18% of adults, 15% of likely voters) saw the questions presented visually on their smartphone or other electronic device. |
 | If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for?(candidate names rotated) Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate? |
| 588 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Cell Phone / Lan | College Grad | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Cell Pho | Landline | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Carl DeMaio | 25% | 28% | 23% | 22% | 19% | 29% | 31% | 20% | 30% | 28% | 13% | 24% | 18% | 37% | 15% | 26% | 33% | 24% | 37% | 26% | 11% | 15% | 27% | 26% | 31% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Bonnie Dumanis | 16% | 13% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 18% | 19% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 28% | 9% | 9% | 15% | 19% | 15% | 7% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 20% | 13% | 17% | 14% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 15% |
| Bob Filner | 25% | 27% | 23% | 18% | 26% | 24% | 27% | 24% | 26% | 22% | 26% | 34% | 27% | 15% | 39% | 18% | 16% | 27% | 12% | 28% | 36% | 19% | 26% | 28% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 24% |
| Nathan Fletcher | 10% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 15% | 5% | 11% | 19% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 6% | 18% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 13% |
| Other | 9% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 1% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 16% | 6% | 10% |
| Undecided | 16% | 13% | 18% | 25% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 23% | 10% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 21% | 13% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 36% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 14% | 32% | 31% | 24% | 46% | 54% | 66% | 5% | 16% | 13% | 33% | 40% | 26% | 13% | 84% | 29% | 45% | 23% | 15% | 85% | 64% | 36% | 25% | 31% | 44% |