Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10647
 
Nation's Tighest Governor's Race? Pawlenty & Hatch Still Even: 24 hours till polls close in Minnesota, incumbent Republican Tim Pawlenty and Democratic challenger Mike Hatch remain as they have been: exactly tied, according to this final pre-election poll conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth. In 3 tracking polls over 6 weeks, Pawlenty has polled 45%, 44%, 45%. In 3 tracking polls over 6 weeks, Hatch has polled 44%, 45%, 45%. 8% of the vote goes to Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson. Since Hutchinson's support is disproportionately liberal and urban, he is taking votes from Hatch. The Republican Pawlenty leads by 15 among men. The Democrat Hatch leads by 14 among women. That's a 29-point Gender Gap. If men vote in larger numbers than SurveyUSA forecasts, Pawlenty is re-elected. If women vote in larger numbers, Hatch takes the statehouse for the Democrats. Pawlenty leads among voters age 35 to 49. All other age groups, both younger and older, back Hatch. 92% of Republicans vote Republican. 86% of Democrats vote Democrat. But: Independents split and fragment. Hatch gets 39%, Pawlenty gets 38%, Hutchinson gets 19%. Lower and middle-income voters back Hatch. Higher-income voters back Pawlenty. Urban MN backs Hatch. Suburban and Rural MN back Pawlenty. Pawlenty was first elected Governor in 2002. Hatch is Minnesota's Attorney General.
 
Klobuchar Holds Open U.S. Senate Seat for Democrats: In an election for U.S. Senator from MN today, Election Eve, Democrat Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican Mark Kennedy, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth. Klobuchar led by 8 points in September, led by 16 points in October and maintains a 16-point lead at the finish line. Klobuchar is tied among males, but leads 2:1 among females. Incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton is not running for re-election. Kennedy currently represents Minnesota's 6th district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
 
Filtering: 1,000 Minnesota adults were interviewed 11/3/06 through 11/5/06. Of them, 902 were registered to vote. Of them, 710 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
 
If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Tim Pawlenty? DFL candidate Mike Hatch? Green Party candidate Ken Pentel? Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson? Quit Raising Taxes Party candidate Walt Brown? American Party candidate Leslie Davis? Or some other candidate?
710 Likely VotersAllGenderAgePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Overall AppRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheasUrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Pawlenty (R)45%53%37%41%53%40%39%92%6%38%85%33%4%44%43%51%40%35%40%54%91%14%43%51%44%43%35%47%48%42%45%51%41%39%
Hatch (DFL)45%38%51%47%38%49%51%4%86%39%10%54%82%45%47%36%51%51%50%37%4%72%45%43%41%47%52%43%43%49%41%41%48%51%
Pentel (G)1%1%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%2%0%1%1%1%0%2%0%2%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%2%2%1%1%0%2%1%0%1%
Hutchinson (IP)8%7%8%9%7%9%6%3%6%19%4%9%11%7%8%9%7%8%7%7%3%11%9%4%10%6%11%8%6%8%10%6%9%6%
Brown (QRT)1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%1%
Davis (A)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Other/Undecided1%0%2%1%1%1%3%0%1%2%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%2%1%0%0%2%1%2%2%1%0%1%2%0%1%1%1%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%22%36%23%19%35%40%21%32%42%18%18%33%26%23%25%38%34%36%59%58%15%13%14%21%51%28%9%28%28%17%19%
 
If the election for United States Senator were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mark Kennedy? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Green Party candidate Michael Cavlan? Constitution Party candidate Ben Powers? Independence Party candidate Robert Fitzgerald? Or some other candidate?
710 Likely VotersAllGenderAgePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Overall AppRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheasUrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Kennedy (R)40%47%32%41%41%38%36%89%4%29%83%23%5%40%42%42%33%35%38%43%87%9%38%47%37%39%30%41%44%41%42%39%40%36%
Klobuchar (D)56%48%63%52%54%58%62%9%94%63%15%72%90%54%54%52%64%59%58%55%10%86%57%49%60%55%64%55%51%53%51%57%56%62%
Cavlan (G)1%1%1%2%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%0%1%0%2%0%2%0%1%1%1%1%2%0%1%1%1%1%3%2%0%0%0%
Powers (C)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Fitzgerald (I)2%2%3%3%3%2%1%1%2%5%2%2%5%4%3%2%2%2%3%1%1%3%3%2%1%2%3%3%2%2%4%2%3%1%
Other/Undecided1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%2%0%1%0%1%1%2%0%2%1%0%1%1%1%0%2%2%1%1%1%2%1%2%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%22%36%23%19%35%40%21%32%42%18%18%33%26%23%25%38%34%36%59%58%15%13%14%21%51%28%9%28%28%17%19%