| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18718 |
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3 Candidates Viable to be Next Mayor of Portland, Or 4, if Police Chief Reese Jumps In.
6 months until Portland, Oregon holds its mayoral primary election, the candidates are bunched, each with a constituency that could be parlayed to victory, especially with 4 in 10 likely voters undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 537 likely city voters conducted for KATU-2 TV News. In a head-to-head match-up of the 3 announced candidates, businesswoman Eileen Brady gets 23%, former city commissioner Charlie Hales gets 19%, and state representative Jefferson Smith gets 14%. 44% of likely voters are undecided. When Police Chief Mike Reese, who so far is not running, is added to the mix, Reese gets 20%, Brady 19%, Hales 13%, and Smith 11%. 38% of likely voters are undecided. No one candidate should be labeled the "leader" based on these results, and no one candidate should be dismissed based on these results. Instead, the contest should be characterized as fluid, and hotly contested, with twice as many voters sitting on the sidelines as are yet committed to any one candidate. Re-positioning is likely as the undecided voters make-up their minds, and as Chief Reese decides to stay-out or jump-in.
* Brady is strong among women, seniors, and affluent voters. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: 800 adults from the city of Portland, Oregon, were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/02/11 through 11/07/11. Of the adults, 731 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 537 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the May 2012 election. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were shown a visual display of the questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. |
| 1 | If you were filling out your primary ballot for Mayor of Portland today, and the only 3 candidates on the ballot were Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, and Jefferson Smith, who would you vote for? |
| 537 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Brady | 23% | 18% | 28% | 12% | 23% | 23% | 34% | 19% | 27% | 24% | ** | 16% | ** | 13% | 25% | 20% | 24% | 24% | 17% | 24% | 14% | 27% | 25% | 19% | 19% | 26% | 16% | 23% | 29% |
| Hales | 19% | 22% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 19% | 23% | 18% | 20% | 20% | ** | 15% | ** | 3% | 22% | 25% | 21% | 9% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 20% | 14% | 25% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 22% |
| Smith | 14% | 17% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | ** | 26% | ** | 13% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 28% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 15% |
| Undecided | 44% | 42% | 46% | 61% | 42% | 44% | 31% | 49% | 40% | 44% | ** | 43% | ** | 70% | 39% | 42% | 41% | 53% | 39% | 44% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 41% | 46% | 43% | 52% | 46% | 33% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 31% | 33% | 17% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 17% | 83% | 20% | 57% | 22% | 7% | 89% | 21% | 32% | 44% | 9% | 33% | 58% | 27% | 41% | 33% |
| 2 | OK, if you were filling out your ballot, and the only 4 candidates on the ballot were Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, Jefferson Smith, and Mike Reese, who would you vote for? |
| 537 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Brady | 19% | 15% | 23% | 10% | 20% | 18% | 25% | 16% | 21% | 20% | ** | 10% | ** | 10% | 20% | 14% | 19% | 21% | 9% | 20% | 9% | 23% | 20% | 22% | 15% | 20% | 15% | 19% | 23% |
| Hales | 13% | 17% | 10% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 15% | ** | 0% | ** | 5% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 18% |
| Smith | 11% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 10% | ** | 12% | ** | 5% | 12% | 5% | 13% | 10% | 18% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 12% |
| Reese | 20% | 21% | 18% | 21% | 19% | 17% | 24% | 20% | 19% | 19% | ** | 27% | ** | 11% | 21% | 34% | 16% | 16% | 29% | 19% | 32% | 20% | 15% | 25% | 24% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 21% |
| Undecided | 38% | 33% | 43% | 49% | 36% | 39% | 28% | 41% | 35% | 36% | ** | 50% | ** | 68% | 32% | 31% | 37% | 45% | 34% | 37% | 35% | 33% | 40% | 34% | 41% | 36% | 42% | 43% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 31% | 33% | 17% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 17% | 83% | 20% | 57% | 22% | 7% | 89% | 21% | 32% | 44% | 9% | 33% | 58% | 27% | 41% | 33% |