| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17493 |
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Jump Ball for MN Governor; Independent Horner Complicates Calculus on Whether GOP Emmer or DFL Dayton Has Last-Minute Edge:
Impossible to say who has the late advantage in the Minnesota Governor's race, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. DFL candidate Mark Dayton has never trailed, but neither in 3 polls has he led by more than 5 points. Today's it's Dayton 39%, Republican Tom Emmer 38%, Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 13%. Horner complicates any analysis of the race. The 1 point difference between Dayton and Emmer reported here does not have statistical significance. The contest should be reported as even. Each of the 2 leading candidates has a chance to win. Independent voters split: 37% for Dayton, 37% for Emmer, 17% for Horner. Tea Party supporters back Emmer 21:1. Moderates break 2:1 for Dayton. Emmer has a slight advantage among men, Dayton has a slight advantage among women, but this Gender Gap is less pronounced than in many other 2010 contests nationwide, where men are breaking sharply Republican. |
| This survey includes interviews conducted on cellphones and on home phones. Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 10/24/10 through 10/27/10. Cellphones were hand-dialed. Of the adults, 824 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 624 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. In the table that follows: "CPO" = Cell Phone Only, respondents who do not have a home phone and who make and receive phone calls with a cell phone. "Both" = respondents who have both a cell phone and a home phone but for this survey were interviewed on their cell phone by a live operator who dialed the call by hand. "Home Phone" = respondents who were interviewed on their home phone with the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. 29% of the likely voters interviewed for this survey were contacted and interviewed entirely by live operator, 71% of likely voters were contacted and interviewed using recorded voice. CPO respondents account for 15% of likely voters. Unlike the findings in some academic research, and unlike SurveyUSA data in California, CPO respondents in Minnesota are not politically different than respondents interviewed on their home phones. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Emmer? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? Or some other candidate? |
| 624 Likely Voters | All | Interview Conducted | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | College Grad | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | CPO, liv | Both Cel | Home pho | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
| Emmer (R) | 38% | 35% | 40% | 39% | 42% | 35% | 37% | 44% | 36% | 33% | 41% | 35% | 39% | ** | ** | ** | 76% | 2% | 37% | 75% | 23% | 3% | 85% | 6% | 48% | 27% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 38% | 39% | 31% | 42% | 37% | 43% | 41% | 35% |
| Dayton (DFL) | 39% | 35% | 34% | 41% | 36% | 42% | 34% | 37% | 41% | 46% | 36% | 44% | 38% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 78% | 37% | 11% | 49% | 74% | 4% | 76% | 25% | 30% | 41% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 36% | 41% | 38% | 42% | 30% | 32% | 45% |
| Horner (IP) | 13% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 13% | ** | ** | ** | 11% | 13% | 17% | 8% | 19% | 14% | 6% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 19% | 10% |
| Other | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
| Undecided | 6% | 15% | 15% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | ** | ** | ** | 6% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 17% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 15% | 14% | 71% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 35% | 24% | 18% | 58% | 42% | 94% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 37% | 38% | 20% | 27% | 37% | 18% | 19% | 13% | 46% | 40% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 68% | 58% | 14% | 15% | 13% |