Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17493
Jump Ball for MN Governor; Independent Horner Complicates Calculus on Whether GOP Emmer or DFL Dayton Has Last-Minute Edge:

Impossible to say who has the late advantage in the Minnesota Governor's race, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. DFL candidate Mark Dayton has never trailed, but neither in 3 polls has he led by more than 5 points. Today's it's Dayton 39%, Republican Tom Emmer 38%, Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 13%. Horner complicates any analysis of the race. The 1 point difference between Dayton and Emmer reported here does not have statistical significance. The contest should be reported as even. Each of the 2 leading candidates has a chance to win.

Independent voters split: 37% for Dayton, 37% for Emmer, 17% for Horner. Tea Party supporters back Emmer 21:1. Moderates break 2:1 for Dayton. Emmer has a slight advantage among men, Dayton has a slight advantage among women, but this Gender Gap is less pronounced than in many other 2010 contests nationwide, where men are breaking sharply Republican.

This survey includes interviews conducted on cellphones and on home phones. Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 10/24/10 through 10/27/10. Cellphones were hand-dialed. Of the adults, 824 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 624 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. In the table that follows: "CPO" = Cell Phone Only, respondents who do not have a home phone and who make and receive phone calls with a cell phone. "Both" = respondents who have both a cell phone and a home phone but for this survey were interviewed on their cell phone by a live operator who dialed the call by hand. "Home Phone" = respondents who were interviewed on their home phone with the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. 29% of the likely voters interviewed for this survey were contacted and interviewed entirely by live operator, 71% of likely voters were contacted and interviewed using recorded voice. CPO respondents account for 15% of likely voters. Unlike the findings in some academic research, and unlike SurveyUSA data in California, CPO respondents in Minnesota are not politically different than respondents interviewed on their home phones.
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Emmer? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? Or some other candidate?
624 Likely VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in MidtermsCollege GradIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsCPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)38%35%40%39%42%35%37%44%36%33%41%35%39%******76%2%37%75%23%3%85%6%48%27%40%37%40%38%39%31%42%37%43%41%35%
Dayton (DFL)39%35%34%41%36%42%34%37%41%46%36%44%38%******5%78%37%11%49%74%4%76%25%30%41%40%38%42%36%41%38%42%30%32%45%
Horner (IP)13%9%11%15%14%13%15%13%14%12%14%13%13%******11%13%17%8%19%14%6%15%14%20%11%15%13%15%12%12%15%13%13%19%10%
Composition of Likely Voters100%15%14%71%50%50%23%35%24%18%58%42%94%2%1%3%35%33%29%37%38%20%27%37%18%19%13%46%40%53%47%32%68%58%14%15%13%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.