| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24538 |
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In California, On Election Eve, Fate of Prop 6 Depends on How Voters Interpret Ballot Language; 6 Might Pass, Might Not; Separately, Prop 8, On Dialysis, As Predicted, Has Lost Support In Home Stretch, Now Trails Narrowly, Too-Close-To-Call: As CA Governor Jerry Brown scurries at the last minute to tell voters to oppose Prop 6, SurveyUSA finds that 2 outcomes are possible to this initiative, depending on how voters interpret the language on the ballot. A split-sample survey just completed by SurveyUSA this final weekend before Election Day shows that given one description of Prop 6, the measure passes comfortably, and given another description of Prop 6, the measure is too-close-to-call. Competing pollsters disagree. Here is the context for Prop 6: On 10/16/18, SurveyUSA released a poll that showed Prop 6 passing. In opinion research conducted concurrently, though entirely separately, the respected pollsters at the Public Policy Institute of California found Prop 6 trailing. SurveyUSA observed that the language that PPIC had read to respondents, describing Prop 6, was different than the language SurveyUSA has used to describe Prop 6 to its respondents. Accordingly: this final weekend before Election Day, SurveyUSA re-conducted its survey, with the intention of exposing a random half of respondents to the language SurveyUSA originally used in its 10/16/18 release, and exposing the other random half of respondents to the language that PPIC read to its respondents. Here's what we learned: When SurveyUSA's language is repeated to respondents, Prop 6 today passes by 12 points, 52% to 40% (see Question #3 in the report below). When PPIC's language is shown to SurveyUSA respondents, Prop 6 today passes by a nominal 3 percentage points, 44% to 41% (see Question #4, below), which, in the grand scheme of evaluating any ballot measure's chance of passage, would be considered "too-close-to-call." In neither instance, given SurveyUSA's respondent mix, does Prop 6 go down to clear defeat. But, because support and opposition to Prop 6 is polarized, any outcome can be explained in advance. If Prop 6 is defeated, it will be because "very liberal" voters (who oppose the measure by 4:1), Democrats (who oppose the measure 2:1), and voters with a high-school education (who oppose the measure 2:1) are inadvertently under-represented in SurveyUSA's work, perhaps because of last-minute turn-out appeals from Governor Brown. If Prop 6 passes narrowly, it suggests that PPIC's questionnaire wording was superior to SurveyUSA's --- hats off to them. While interviews were being conducted for this final SurveyUSA poll, the respected pollsters at IGS Berkeley and, entirely separately, the innovative pollsters at YouGov, both released polls that also showed Prop 6 failing, but failing by twice as many points as the PPIC poll. If Prop 6 goes down to stunning (double-digit) defeat on Election Day, credit the pollsters at IGS Berkeley and the pollsters at YouGov, who will have hit the nail on the head. Note: Of those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Prop 6 leads by 3 points among the half of respondents exposed to SurveyUSA question wording, and leads by 7 points among those exposed to PPIC question wording. To close the loop on this explanation, for academic purposes, SurveyUSA combined the results of the split-sample experiment, and aggregated the results of Question #3 and Question #4 below into Question #5. The imputed data in Question #5 below shows Prop 6 passing by 7 points, 48% to 41%. Now, on to Prop 8, about kidney dialysis. On 10/16/18, SurveyUSA showed Prop 8 leading by 13 points, which apparent advantage SurveyUSA characterized then as "dicey," given historical context. SurveyUSA cautioned at the time, "Opposition to ballot measures, having nothing uniquely to do with California or with 2018, typically increases as election day approaches. Though the odds are in favor of Prop 8 at this moment, history suggests that a far closer outcome is possible." Sure enough, in research conducted this final campaign weekend (using identical questionnaire language), SurveyUSA now shows Prop 8 trailing by 4 points, 42% Yes, 46% No. In the grand scheme of polling on ballot measures, this, too, needs to be characterized as "too-close-to-call," but at the same time, SurveyUSA observes that all of the momentum is now on the "No" side. Far less drama is associated with the outcome of the Governor's race, where today SurveyUSA has Democrat Gavin Newsom 15 points ahead of Republican John Cox, and where SurveyUSA has incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein 14 points ahead of fellow Democrat Kevin De Leon. These 11/05/18 results are effectively unchanged from SurveyUSA's 10/16/18 results, which showed Newsom 17 points atop Cox and Feinstein 14 points atop De Leon. About: For this 11/05/18 release, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 state of California adults 11/01/18 through 11/02/18. Of the adults, 1,055 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 924 who have returned a ballot on the Governor's contest or who promise to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline; 806 who have returned a ballot on the U.S. Senate contest or who promise to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline (because there are 2 Democrats on the ballot for U.S. Senate and no Republicans, a number of Republican respondents told SurveyUSA they would not cast a ballot in this particular contest); and 913 who have already returned a ballot on the citizen initiatives or who promise to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline. Of the 913 ballot measure voters, 445 were randomly assigned to split-sample version A of the questionnaire (Question #3), 468 were randomly assigned to split-sample version B of the questionnaire (Question #4). This research was conducted online. |
| 1 | In the election for Governor, do you vote for ...? |
| 924 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| John Cox (R) | 38% | 43% | 35% | 29% | 35% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 42% | 47% | ** | 25% | 31% | 92% | 7% | 36% | 84% | 73% | 34% | 5% | 4% | 43% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 42% | 36% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 16% | 55% | 20% | 58% | 22% | 57% | 21% | 41% | 40% | 37% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 47% | 37% | 31% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 48% | 44% | 36% | 41% | 34% | 42% | 40% |
| Gavin Newsom (D) | 53% | 51% | 55% | 50% | 56% | 51% | 54% | 54% | 53% | 45% | ** | 66% | 57% | 4% | 86% | 49% | 13% | 15% | 57% | 90% | 93% | 56% | 51% | 60% | 53% | 57% | 51% | 0% | 100% | 44% | 81% | 37% | 78% | 33% | 71% | 35% | 75% | 43% | 51% | 57% | 57% | 47% | 56% | 44% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 53% | 54% | 57% | 53% | 43% | 49% | 55% | 48% | 56% | 51% | 54% |
| Undecided | 9% | 6% | 10% | 22% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 14% | 5% | 8% | ** | 9% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 16% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 15% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 44% | 56% | 16% | 23% | 30% | 31% | 38% | 62% | 61% | 5% | 23% | 11% | 30% | 48% | 21% | 12% | 19% | 38% | 18% | 11% | 40% | 60% | 41% | 59% | 41% | 59% | 38% | 53% | 36% | 51% | 52% | 40% | 43% | 42% | 48% | 41% | 12% | 40% | 48% | 27% | 36% | 37% | 16% | 83% | 9% | 90% | 12% | 87% | 34% | 55% | 10% | 23% | 32% | 21% | 37% | 20% | 22% |
| 2 | In the election for United States Senator, do you vote for ...? |
| 806 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Kevin De Leon (D) | 36% | 41% | 32% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 32% | 39% | 35% | 38% | 16% | 37% | 38% | 57% | 28% | 37% | 59% | 46% | 35% | 26% | 32% | 37% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 35% | 58% | 26% | 100% | 0% | 46% | 32% | 36% | 39% | 42% | 36% | 39% | 34% | 38% | 36% | 40% | 33% | 33% | 37% | 40% | 36% | 31% | 37% | 38% | 34% | 43% | 37% | 32% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 34% |
| Dianne Feinstein (D) | 50% | 47% | 52% | 36% | 48% | 50% | 59% | 43% | 55% | 49% | 60% | 50% | 48% | 23% | 64% | 46% | 24% | 31% | 53% | 64% | 63% | 59% | 45% | 60% | 44% | 60% | 44% | 26% | 68% | 0% | 100% | 39% | 60% | 53% | 54% | 45% | 57% | 40% | 53% | 50% | 47% | 45% | 56% | 52% | 50% | 41% | 51% | 56% | 49% | 47% | 53% | 42% | 52% | 55% | 45% | 51% | 50% | 54% |
| Undecided | 14% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 13% | 25% | 14% | 14% | 20% | 9% | 17% | 17% | 24% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 20% | 3% | 20% | 3% | 20% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 16% | 12% | 14% | 19% | 12% | 14% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 16% | 24% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 60% | 60% | 5% | 24% | 10% | 24% | 53% | 21% | 8% | 17% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 39% | 61% | 39% | 61% | 39% | 61% | 31% | 60% | 36% | 50% | 47% | 44% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 45% | 12% | 38% | 50% | 26% | 34% | 39% | 16% | 83% | 9% | 89% | 11% | 89% | 36% | 54% | 10% | 23% | 32% | 21% | 38% | 19% | 22% |
| 3 | OK, now let's switch to some of the ballot measures. Proposition 6 is a constitutional amendment that would repeal gasoline and diesel taxes and vehicle fees that were first enacted in 2017 and would require that any future fuel taxes be approved by voters. A YES vote on Prop 6 would repeal fuel tax increases that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repaid and Accountability Act of 2017. A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future, provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote? |
| 445 1/2 Split Sample Of Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 6.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes On 6 | 52% | 57% | 49% | 56% | 53% | 58% | 45% | 54% | 51% | 54% | 16% | 59% | 51% | 83% | 35% | 46% | 76% | 64% | 58% | 28% | 26% | 50% | 53% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 53% | 77% | 35% | 58% | 38% | 100% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 0% | 45% | 56% | 51% | 49% | 51% | 57% | 55% | 52% | 54% | 52% | 69% | 49% | 52% | 55% | 37% | 58% | 53% | 52% | 51% | 64% | 43% |
| No On 6 | 40% | 37% | 42% | 28% | 39% | 32% | 53% | 34% | 43% | 40% | 57% | 31% | 43% | 11% | 57% | 45% | 20% | 27% | 34% | 61% | 70% | 48% | 35% | 49% | 37% | 48% | 34% | 21% | 58% | 38% | 55% | 0% | 100% | - | - | 0% | 100% | 42% | 38% | 40% | 44% | 43% | 33% | 34% | 41% | 36% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 39% | 38% | 53% | 34% | 40% | 42% | 39% | 30% | 48% |
| Undecided On 6 | 8% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 9% | 10% | 2% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 27% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 1% | 14% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 0% | - | - | 0% | 0% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of 1/2 Split Sample Of Likely Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 17% | 23% | 28% | 32% | 40% | 60% | 61% | 6% | 21% | 12% | 30% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 19% | 37% | 18% | 11% | 42% | 58% | 43% | 57% | 42% | 58% | 37% | 55% | 38% | 48% | 52% | 40% | 52% | 40% | 11% | 40% | 49% | 31% | 34% | 35% | 15% | 84% | 10% | 88% | 12% | 85% | 31% | 58% | 11% | 24% | 35% | 23% | 35% | 21% | 22% | ||
| 4 | Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. Proposition 6 is called the "Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It repeals a 2017 transportation law's taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. The fiscal impact is reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs. On Proposition 6, how do you vote? |
| 468 1/2 Split Sample Of Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes On 6 | 44% | 47% | 43% | 35% | 42% | 39% | 55% | 39% | 47% | 46% | ** | 40% | 48% | 63% | 29% | 56% | 67% | 59% | 49% | 18% | 15% | 52% | 40% | 51% | 38% | 51% | 41% | 65% | 28% | 41% | 40% | - | - | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 24% | 54% | 42% | 37% | 54% | 40% | 51% | 43% | 52% | 44% | 51% | 44% | 39% | 50% | 37% | 59% | 43% | 37% | 46% | 47% | 46% |
| No On 6 | 41% | 39% | 43% | 44% | 37% | 51% | 33% | 40% | 42% | 41% | ** | 39% | 45% | 25% | 56% | 31% | 24% | 27% | 40% | 56% | 70% | 42% | 41% | 45% | 41% | 44% | 40% | 24% | 58% | 51% | 47% | - | - | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 58% | 28% | 47% | 44% | 35% | 45% | 39% | 42% | 28% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 47% | 36% | 46% | 31% | 39% | 47% | 41% | 36% | 42% |
| Undecided On 6 | 14% | 14% | 14% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 12% | 21% | 11% | 13% | ** | 22% | 7% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 19% | 5% | 21% | 5% | 20% | 11% | 15% | 8% | 14% | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 17% | 11% | 19% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 15% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 17% | 10% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 17% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of 1/2 Split Sample Of Likely Voters | 100% | 44% | 56% | 14% | 20% | 33% | 33% | 34% | 66% | 61% | 3% | 24% | 12% | 30% | 49% | 19% | 10% | 22% | 39% | 16% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 41% | 59% | 38% | 62% | 39% | 53% | 35% | 53% | 44% | 41% | 44% | 41% | 13% | 37% | 49% | 25% | 37% | 38% | 17% | 82% | 7% | 93% | 11% | 88% | 38% | 52% | 10% | 22% | 30% | 20% | 40% | 20% | 21% | ||
| 5 | [Imputed; combined results of the two split sample versions of Proposition 6] |
| 913 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes On 6 | 48% | 52% | 46% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 47% | 49% | 50% | ** | 48% | 49% | 73% | 32% | 50% | 72% | 61% | 53% | 23% | 21% | 51% | 46% | 50% | 43% | 51% | 47% | 71% | 31% | 50% | 39% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 33% | 55% | 46% | 43% | 52% | 48% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 48% | 60% | 46% | 45% | 52% | 37% | 58% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 56% | 44% |
| No On 6 | 41% | 38% | 42% | 36% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 37% | 43% | 40% | ** | 35% | 44% | 18% | 57% | 39% | 22% | 27% | 37% | 59% | 70% | 45% | 38% | 47% | 39% | 46% | 37% | 23% | 58% | 44% | 51% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 51% | 33% | 44% | 44% | 39% | 40% | 37% | 42% | 33% | 41% | 35% | 42% | 43% | 37% | 50% | 33% | 40% | 44% | 40% | 33% | 45% |
| Undecided On 6 | 11% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 16% | 8% | 10% | ** | 16% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 9% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 16% | 3% | 18% | 3% | 17% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 11% | 5% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 44% | 56% | 15% | 22% | 31% | 33% | 37% | 63% | 61% | 5% | 23% | 12% | 30% | 47% | 21% | 11% | 21% | 38% | 17% | 11% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | 60% | 38% | 54% | 36% | 50% | 52% | 40% | 44% | 41% | 48% | 41% | 12% | 39% | 49% | 28% | 36% | 37% | 16% | 83% | 8% | 91% | 12% | 87% | 35% | 55% | 10% | 23% | 32% | 21% | 37% | 20% | 21% |
| 6 | Next ... Proposition 8 would place limits on how much profit Kidney Dialysis Clinics in California are allowed to keep. A YES vote on Prop 8 means that a kidney dialysis clinic in California will be limited to making 15 percent profit. Any profit that a clinic makes in excess of 15 percent, must be returned to the individuals who paid for the dialysis, or to the insurance companies who paid for the dialysis. A NO vote on Prop 8 would keep the current system, which means that California's dialysis clinics may make as much profit as they wish. Based on this description, if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote ... |
| 911 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| YES On Prop 8 | 42% | 45% | 40% | 41% | 48% | 39% | 42% | 45% | 40% | 40% | ** | 46% | 54% | 27% | 50% | 47% | 29% | 32% | 45% | 41% | 67% | 45% | 40% | 46% | 41% | 45% | 40% | 30% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 40% | 50% | 47% | 41% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 37% | 46% | 42% | 41% | 44% | 34% | 44% | 49% | 41% | 45% | 42% | 47% | 42% | 31% | 42% | 42% | 38% | 46% | 35% | 47% |
| NO On Prop 8 | 46% | 41% | 49% | 38% | 40% | 49% | 50% | 39% | 49% | 48% | ** | 40% | 35% | 61% | 38% | 41% | 60% | 53% | 44% | 44% | 26% | 52% | 41% | 52% | 38% | 53% | 40% | 60% | 38% | 43% | 43% | 50% | 46% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 46% | 51% | 42% | 46% | 48% | 43% | 53% | 44% | 33% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 39% | 48% | 56% | 47% | 49% | 49% | 39% | 57% | 42% |
| Undecided | 12% | 14% | 11% | 21% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 16% | 10% | 12% | ** | 14% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 19% | 2% | 21% | 2% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 7% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 15% | 22% | 31% | 33% | 37% | 63% | 61% | 5% | 23% | 12% | 30% | 47% | 22% | 12% | 21% | 38% | 17% | 11% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | 60% | 38% | 54% | 36% | 50% | 52% | 40% | 45% | 42% | 48% | 41% | 12% | 39% | 49% | 28% | 36% | 37% | 16% | 83% | 8% | 91% | 12% | 87% | 35% | 55% | 11% | 23% | 32% | 21% | 37% | 20% | 21% |
| 7 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jerry Brown is doing as Governor? |
| 922 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Approve | 47% | 49% | 45% | 42% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 46% | 42% | ** | 51% | 56% | 16% | 69% | 42% | 20% | 19% | 47% | 70% | 91% | 48% | 45% | 50% | 48% | 47% | 46% | 12% | 74% | 39% | 67% | 33% | 63% | 36% | 63% | 34% | 63% | 33% | 41% | 54% | 43% | 41% | 54% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 46% | 44% | 47% | 54% | 44% | 35% | 45% | 43% | 36% | 57% | 32% | 52% |
| Disapprove | 40% | 42% | 38% | 30% | 31% | 49% | 42% | 31% | 45% | 45% | ** | 33% | 27% | 79% | 16% | 38% | 76% | 68% | 37% | 12% | 3% | 42% | 39% | 40% | 35% | 42% | 38% | 81% | 11% | 50% | 18% | 54% | 17% | 58% | 28% | 56% | 23% | 42% | 47% | 34% | 41% | 45% | 34% | 48% | 39% | 30% | 41% | 42% | 39% | 28% | 44% | 58% | 48% | 41% | 51% | 34% | 51% | 28% |
| Not Sure | 13% | 9% | 17% | 28% | 19% | 8% | 8% | 23% | 8% | 12% | ** | 16% | 17% | 5% | 15% | 20% | 3% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 6% | 10% | 16% | 10% | 17% | 10% | 16% | 7% | 15% | 10% | 15% | 13% | 20% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 26% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 22% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 17% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 17% | 19% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 15% | 22% | 31% | 33% | 37% | 63% | 61% | 5% | 23% | 12% | 30% | 47% | 21% | 12% | 21% | 38% | 17% | 11% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | 60% | 38% | 53% | 36% | 50% | 52% | 40% | 44% | 41% | 48% | 41% | 12% | 39% | 49% | 28% | 36% | 36% | 16% | 83% | 8% | 91% | 12% | 87% | 34% | 55% | 11% | 23% | 32% | 21% | 37% | 20% | 21% |
| 8 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? |
| 922 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted Go | Already Voted Se | Already Voted Pr | Gov Vote | Senate Vote | Prop 6-A Vote | Prop 6-B Vote | Prop 6 Combined | Education | Income | Union HH | Healthcare Worke | Know Dialysis Pa | Urbanicity | Suburban | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Cox | Newsom | De Leon | Feinstei | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Approve | 37% | 45% | 31% | 30% | 33% | 36% | 43% | 32% | 39% | 41% | ** | 26% | 39% | 82% | 11% | 30% | 83% | 69% | 28% | 6% | 5% | 39% | 34% | 36% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 79% | 6% | 43% | 17% | 49% | 17% | 62% | 22% | 55% | 19% | 52% | 38% | 32% | 35% | 41% | 33% | 50% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 43% | 44% | 29% | 39% | 35% | 41% | 35% |
| Disapprove | 58% | 50% | 63% | 60% | 61% | 58% | 53% | 61% | 56% | 53% | ** | 67% | 55% | 12% | 85% | 62% | 14% | 24% | 64% | 91% | 95% | 56% | 59% | 59% | 61% | 57% | 58% | 14% | 91% | 51% | 80% | 43% | 80% | 34% | 74% | 39% | 77% | 40% | 54% | 64% | 57% | 54% | 61% | 49% | 60% | 54% | 58% | 59% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 54% | 49% | 64% | 55% | 60% | 54% | 59% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 6% | ** | 6% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 15% | 22% | 31% | 33% | 37% | 63% | 61% | 5% | 23% | 12% | 30% | 47% | 21% | 12% | 21% | 38% | 17% | 11% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | 60% | 38% | 53% | 36% | 50% | 52% | 40% | 44% | 41% | 48% | 41% | 12% | 39% | 49% | 28% | 36% | 36% | 16% | 83% | 8% | 91% | 12% | 87% | 34% | 55% | 11% | 23% | 32% | 21% | 37% | 20% | 21% |