Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19959

In CT Fight for Lieberman Senate Seat, Democrat Murphy Narrowly Atop Republican McMahon, 16 Days till Votes are Counted:

In an election for United States Senator from Connecticut today, 10/22/12, Democrat Chris Murphy is at 47% to Linda McMahon's 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. The seat is open, and one that Republicans need to pick-up in order to take control of the U.S. Senate.

* Murphy's advantage comes entirely from CT minorities: the contest is tied among white voters.
* Murphy's advantage comes entirely from high school educated voters. The contest is tied among those with at least some college education.
* Murphy leads among voters earning less than $80,000 a year; McMahon leads among voters earning more than $80,000.
* Murphy leads in Fairfield and Hartford counties, McMahon leads in New Haven County.
* Independents break 5:4 Republican, but that is offset by Moderates, who break 5:4 Democrat.
* Murphy benefits from a 25-point gender gap: he leads by 16 points among women, which offsets McMahon's 9-point lead among men.
* Murphy leads among the youngest and oldest voters. McMahon leads among middle-aged voters.
* Both candidates are disliked. Murphy has a Minus 9 Net Favorability. McMahon has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.

In an election for President of the United States today, Connecticut's 7 electoral votes remain safely blue: Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 53% to 40%. Obama leads in every age group and has a 25-point advantage among CT women. 18% of CT's few Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic in the contest for President.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of CT adults 10/19/12 through 10/21/12. Of the adults, 637 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 575 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1	If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

575 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race			Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Fairfiel	Hartford	New Have	Rest of
Mitt Romney (R)	40%	45%	34%	28%	41%	45%	42%	36%	43%	42%	21%	41%	22%	44%	75%	13%	43%	74%	34%	9%	30%	41%	42%	24%	40%	46%	39%	35%	42%	42%
Barack Obama (D)	53%	48%	59%	67%	48%	49%	53%	56%	50%	51%	76%	50%	70%	49%	18%	85%	45%	21%	58%	86%	63%	53%	51%	67%	53%	47%	51%	58%	54%	50%
Other	3%	4%	3%	2%	3%	5%	3%	2%	4%	4%	1%	3%	2%	4%	2%	2%	6%	3%	3%	3%	1%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	3%	4%	2%	4%
Undecided	4%	3%	5%	4%	7%	1%	3%	6%	2%	3%	2%	6%	6%	3%	5%	1%	6%	2%	4%	2%	6%	3%	3%	6%	4%	3%	7%	3%	2%	3%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	29%	20%	50%	50%	75%	9%	12%	21%	79%	27%	39%	33%	26%	44%	20%	17%	33%	50%	20%	40%	40%	25%	25%	24%	26%

2	If the election for United States Senator from Connecticut were today, who would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Linda McMahon? Democrat Chris Murphy? Or one of the other candidates?

575 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race			Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Fairfiel	Hartford	New Have	Rest of
Linda McMahon (R)	43%	51%	36%	36%	46%	49%	40%	42%	45%	46%	32%	41%	34%	46%	78%	16%	47%	78%	39%	13%	33%	44%	46%	30%	43%	50%	42%	40%	48%	43%
Chris Murphy (D)	47%	42%	52%	53%	43%	44%	53%	47%	48%	46%	63%	46%	51%	46%	16%	78%	39%	17%	51%	80%	58%	46%	45%	57%	50%	41%	47%	52%	43%	48%
Other	4%	3%	4%	2%	4%	5%	3%	3%	4%	4%	2%	1%	1%	4%	2%	2%	7%	3%	3%	4%	2%	5%	3%	3%	3%	4%	4%	4%	2%	5%
Undecided	6%	4%	7%	8%	7%	3%	3%	8%	3%	5%	3%	11%	14%	3%	4%	4%	7%	2%	7%	3%	7%	5%	6%	10%	4%	5%	7%	4%	6%	5%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	29%	20%	50%	50%	75%	9%	12%	21%	79%	27%	39%	33%	26%	44%	20%	17%	33%	50%	20%	40%	40%	25%	25%	24%	26%

3	Is your opinion of Barack Obama ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?

575 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race			Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Fairfiel	Hartford	New Have	Rest of
Favorable	49%	43%	54%	61%	42%	45%	50%	51%	47%	45%	76%	53%	61%	46%	16%	80%	39%	19%	52%	80%	62%	50%	44%	61%	50%	43%	46%	56%	49%	44%
Unfavorable	37%	43%	32%	25%	39%	44%	39%	33%	42%	40%	18%	37%	21%	42%	73%	11%	40%	75%	32%	5%	26%	41%	39%	24%	38%	43%	35%	32%	39%	43%
Neutral	12%	13%	11%	13%	15%	10%	9%	14%	10%	14%	5%	3%	17%	10%	8%	8%	19%	6%	14%	12%	7%	8%	15%	10%	11%	13%	15%	10%	11%	11%
No Opinion	2%	1%	3%	1%	4%	1%	2%	3%	1%	1%	0%	7%	1%	2%	3%	2%	2%	0%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	6%	1%	1%	4%	2%	1%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	29%	20%	50%	50%	75%	9%	12%	21%	79%	27%	39%	33%	26%	44%	20%	17%	33%	50%	20%	40%	40%	25%	25%	24%	26%

4	Is your opinion of Mitt Romney ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?

575 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race			Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Fairfiel	Hartford	New Have	Rest of
Favorable	34%	38%	31%	20%	38%	37%	40%	30%	38%	36%	24%	28%	17%	39%	63%	12%	37%	69%	28%	4%	28%	35%	36%	22%	36%	39%	35%	31%	32%	39%
Unfavorable	49%	41%	55%	60%	46%	44%	46%	52%	45%	47%	65%	46%	63%	45%	18%	75%	43%	16%	53%	78%	59%	46%	47%	62%	47%	43%	49%	49%	46%	50%
Neutral	15%	19%	12%	18%	14%	18%	12%	16%	15%	16%	8%	22%	18%	14%	19%	10%	18%	14%	17%	15%	12%	17%	15%	12%	16%	16%	13%	16%	21%	11%
No Opinion	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	4%	3%	2%	2%	0%	3%	1%	1%	1%	4%	1%	1%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	4%	1%	0%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	29%	20%	50%	50%	75%	9%	12%	21%	79%	27%	39%	33%	26%	44%	20%	17%	33%	50%	20%	40%	40%	25%	25%	24%	26%

5	Is your opinion of Chris Murphy ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?

575 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race			Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Fairfiel	Hartford	New Have	Rest of
Favorable	31%	30%	32%	32%	25%	30%	39%	28%	34%	28%	60%	24%	26%	33%	9%	52%	25%	14%	31%	50%	42%	32%	28%	46%	32%	25%	37%	36%	29%	23%
Unfavorable	40%	46%	35%	36%	45%	46%	29%	41%	39%	41%	26%	49%	35%	41%	70%	17%	42%	65%	36%	18%	29%	41%	43%	29%	42%	44%	37%	39%	40%	44%
Neutral	24%	21%	27%	29%	24%	21%	26%	26%	23%	27%	11%	18%	36%	21%	17%	25%	29%	19%	30%	25%	21%	25%	25%	17%	25%	27%	18%	22%	29%	28%
No Opinion	4%	3%	5%	3%	6%	2%	6%	5%	4%	4%	3%	9%	3%	5%	4%	5%	4%	3%	3%	7%	8%	3%	4%	8%	1%	5%	8%	3%	2%	4%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	29%	20%	50%	50%	75%	9%	12%	21%	79%	27%	39%	33%	26%	44%	20%	17%	33%	50%	20%	40%	40%	25%	25%	24%	26%

6	Is your opinion of Linda McMahon ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?

575 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race			Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Fairfiel	Hartford	New Have	Rest of
Favorable	35%	40%	30%	31%	36%	39%	32%	34%	36%	36%	26%	37%	27%	37%	65%	14%	35%	66%	29%	11%	32%	37%	34%	30%	34%	37%	34%	33%	39%	34%
Unfavorable	45%	42%	48%	47%	41%	42%	53%	44%	47%	46%	58%	33%	46%	45%	17%	71%	39%	19%	51%	71%	50%	45%	44%	53%	46%	43%	45%	53%	38%	44%
Neutral	17%	16%	18%	21%	20%	17%	9%	21%	14%	16%	12%	23%	24%	15%	17%	11%	24%	12%	20%	13%	15%	16%	18%	15%	17%	17%	18%	11%	19%	21%
No Opinion	3%	2%	4%	1%	2%	1%	6%	2%	3%	2%	4%	7%	2%	3%	1%	4%	2%	3%	1%	4%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	3%	4%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	29%	20%	50%	50%	75%	9%	12%	21%	79%	27%	39%	33%	26%	44%	20%	17%	33%	50%	20%	40%	40%	25%	25%	24%	26%