| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14625 |
| Kentucky -- Senate Minority Leader Now in Danger of Ending With a Minority of Votes in Bid for 5th Term: In an election for US Senator from Kentucky today, 10/21/08, two weeks until votes are counted, incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Bruce Lunsford are tied, 48% each, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WLEX-TV Lexington. In a SurveyUSA poll released in August, McConnell led by 12. Today he leads by zero. Women have rallied to Lunsford, who once trailed by 11 but now leads by 11. Among seniors, Lunsford had trailed by 14, now leads by 6. In Western KY, McConnell had led by 20, now by 4. In North Central KY, McConnell had led by 14, now by 1. In Eastern KY, McConnell had led by 26, now trails by 5. |
| McCain Still Comfortably Ahead in KY, But as Race Tightens, Obama is Kicking Mud in Mitch McConnell's Eye: In an election for President of the United States in Kentucky today, 10/21/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 54% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WLEX-TV Lexington. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, McCain is down 3 points, Obama is up 3 points. McCain remains well positioned to capture Kentucky's 8 electoral votes, but every additional percentage point that Barack Obama gets in this contest is an additional headwind that Kentucky's incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell must face in his battle for reelection to the US Senate. George Bush carried KY by 20 points in 2004 and by 15 points in 2000. If McCain materially underperforms those numbers, McConnell is in danger of being swamped by a rising Democratic tide. |
| Filtering: 1,350 Kentucky adults were interviewed 10/18/08 through 10/20/08. Of them, 1,228 were registered to vote. Of them, 535 were read this version of the questionnaire and determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 535 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| McCain (R) | 54% | 59% | 49% | 52% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 54% | 54% | 53% | 44% | 57% | 56% | 19% | ** | ** | 83% | 30% | 58% | 83% | 40% | 24% | 58% | 51% | 52% | 57% | 54% | 49% | 58% | 54% |
| Obama (D) | 41% | 37% | 45% | 40% | 42% | 39% | 44% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 50% | 39% | 39% | 80% | ** | ** | 13% | 64% | 37% | 14% | 54% | 69% | 39% | 42% | 43% | 38% | 42% | 49% | 37% | 33% |
| Other | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Undecided | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 0% | ** | ** | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 28% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 59% | 41% | 54% | 8% | 38% | 91% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 41% | 51% | 8% | 36% | 45% | 12% | 44% | 56% | 44% | 56% | 23% | 29% | 32% | 16% |
| 2 | Is that a firm choice? Or could you change your mind? |
| 507 Who Vote Mccain or Obama | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Firm Choice | 92% | 91% | 92% | 92% | 90% | 92% | 92% | 91% | 92% | 91% | 92% | 92% | 91% | 96% | ** | ** | 92% | 91% | 95% | 92% | 91% | 94% | 90% | 93% | 92% | 91% | 91% | 93% | 90% | 92% |
| Could Change Your Mind | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 4% | ** | ** | 8% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Vote Mccain or Obama | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 32% | 24% | 17% | 59% | 41% | 53% | 8% | 38% | 91% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 42% | 50% | 8% | 36% | 45% | 12% | 45% | 55% | 44% | 56% | 23% | 30% | 32% | 15% |
 | If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Mitch McConnell? Or Democrat Bruce Lunsford? |
| 535 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Mitch McConnell (R) | 48% | 53% | 43% | 46% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 34% | 50% | 50% | 26% | ** | ** | 77% | 25% | 44% | 77% | 33% | 26% | 52% | 45% | 45% | 51% | 51% | 46% | 48% | 46% |
| Bruce Lunsford (D) | 48% | 43% | 54% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 51% | 48% | 49% | 47% | 62% | 47% | 47% | 74% | ** | ** | 17% | 73% | 50% | 21% | 62% | 69% | 46% | 50% | 50% | 46% | 47% | 50% | 47% | 51% |
| Undecided | 4% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 0% | ** | ** | 6% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 28% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 59% | 41% | 54% | 8% | 38% | 91% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 41% | 51% | 8% | 36% | 45% | 12% | 44% | 56% | 44% | 56% | 23% | 29% | 32% | 16% |
| 4 | Is that a firm choice? Or could you change your mind? |
| 514 Who Vote For Mcconnell or Lunsford | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Firm Choice | 84% | 84% | 83% | 75% | 82% | 89% | 91% | 79% | 90% | 79% | 93% | 89% | 83% | 84% | ** | ** | 82% | 87% | 69% | 86% | 80% | 94% | 82% | 84% | 83% | 84% | 82% | 89% | 80% | 83% |
| Could Change Your Mind | 16% | 16% | 17% | 25% | 18% | 11% | 9% | 21% | 10% | 21% | 7% | 11% | 17% | 16% | ** | ** | 18% | 13% | 31% | 14% | 20% | 6% | 18% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 11% | 20% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Vote For Mcconnell or Lunsford | 100% | 49% | 51% | 27% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 59% | 41% | 54% | 8% | 38% | 92% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 40% | 52% | 7% | 37% | 45% | 12% | 44% | 56% | 43% | 57% | 23% | 28% | 32% | 16% |