In an election for Mayor of San Diego today, 10/15/12, three weeks till votes are counted, Bob Filner maintains a small advantage over Carl DeMaio, 47% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Filer is down 3 points, DeMaio is up 2 points. Today's results are almost identical to SurveyUSA results from 08/24/12, when Filer led DeMaio by 6 points.

One ominous note for Filner: Among the 24% of voters who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot in this contest, DeMaio leads 47% to 42%. These can be seen as the most committed voters. Filner leads only on the basis of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote before Election Day, but who have not yet done so. In this way, Filner's support appears to be "softer."

DeMaio had led among males in SurveyUSA's 06/11/12 poll of the contest, but in August and in September, Filner led. Today, among males, DeMaio is back on top, 46% to 43%. Filner led among voters under age 50 in June, August and September, but today is tied with DeMaio. Among voters age 50+, there is offsetting movement to Filner.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of the adults, 698 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be certain to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.